Once again, free agents have felt a squeeze this offseason. Teams are increasingly reluctant to give players market value contracts or contracts that take them into their mid-30s. They're opting for younger and cheaper players, either by getting them in trades from rebuilding teams or developing them internally. It's hard out there for free agents.
Relievers, however, are the one demographic that has been seemingly immune to the free-agent freeze. In terms of guaranteed money, six of the 18 largest free-agent contracts handed out this offseason have gone to relievers. Plenty of clubs are still in the market for bullpen help as well.
These and other teams are still looking for pen help: cubs, reds, Red Sox, braves, chisox, angels. In my list of available relievers yesterday I omitted Jim Johnson, casilla and Warren. But there are many left.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 30, 2019
Starters are throwing fewer and fewer innings with each passing season and, as a result, eight-man bullpens are becoming the norm. Teams need a lot -- a lot -- of relievers these days. They need eight for their opening day roster plus several others to stash in Triple-A as depth options. We see it all the time nowadays, a reliever gets sent down following an appearance and someone else gets called up so the club has a fresh bullpen arm the next day.
At this point nearly every top free-agent reliever has signed with one notable exception. There are still a ton of depth options on the board, however, and with spring training camps due to open next week, we should see a few of these gentlemen sign contracts in the coming days. Here's a look at what's left on the free-agent bullpen market.
The best available
Craig Kimbrel is, far and away, the best reliever sitting in free agency. We collectively ranked him as the top free-agent reliever available at the outset of the offseason, and now that guys like Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, and David Robertson have signed, Kimbrel stands alone as an elite reliever available for nothing but cash.
Weeks ago it was reported Kimbrel wants six years and $100 million but that's not happening. Never was. Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen set the top of the reliever market at five years and $17 million per season a few years ago. Kimbrel should get a contract in that range. In this market though, who knows? He turns 31 in May, his walk and home run numbers have jumped a bit in recent seasons, and he had some shaky outings in October.
Still, Kimbrel is an elite closer and on the very short list of the best relievers in the game. He is the only true difference-making reliever available in free agency right now. At some point a contending team will cave and give him a pricey contract (though perhaps not Chapman or Jansen money), and be happy they did it.
Other names you know
It's been a few years now since Brad Boxberger was an All-Star level closer. He struggled with the Diamondbacks last season, especially late in the year, and that earned him a non-tender in November. Injuries slowed Boxberger in 2016-17 and it could be that as he gets further away from his health problems, his performance will rebound. I'm not sure I'd trust him in high-leverage situations right out of the gate in 2019, but Boxberger is worth a one-year roll of the dice.
Huge workloads with the Nationals back in the day have taken their toll on Tyler Clippard, who is now a journeyman with a bit of a home run issue. In a perfect world he would be the fourth- or fifth-best option in a contender's bullpen. For a rebuilding club, Clippard would be a great one-year signing who could potentially be flipped for a prospect(s) at the trade deadline.
Two Tommy John surgeries ended Daniel Hudson's days as a starting pitcher. He's stayed healthy as a reliever the last few seasons and has had quite a bit of success at times. With his 32nd birthday right around the corner, Hudson still sat in the mid-90s with his fastball last year, and posted very high spin rates. An analytically inclined organization figures to take a shot with him at some point.
As he's entered his mid-30s, Jim Johnson has lost some velocity off his trademark sinker, leading to the two lowest ground ball rates of his career the last two seasons. Johnson probably allows too many balls in play to be trusted with high-leverage work at this point. He could still be a useful right-on-right matchup guy who can get you a double play ball on occasion.
A poor regular season and a historically terrible World Series makes it easy to forget Ryan Madson, at age 38, still has a mid-to-upper-90s fastball with one of the best changeups in the sport. There's always a chance last season was the beginning of the end given his age. It seems to me Madson's present stuff and late-game experience is worth a roll of the dice, even on a minor league contract with an invitation to big league spring training.
Bud Norris, 33, had a nice little run closing games for the Cardinals last year before his effectiveness waned down the stretch. Weirdly, Norris has been much more effective against lefties (.551 OPS) than righties (.818 OPS) the last two years. Because he misses bats and has some late-game experience, I imagine it's only a matter of time until Norris gets signed, even though he's been at the center of some clubhouse issues in the past.
A disastrous September turned what was an otherwise very strong season for Sergio Romo into something that looks pretty mediocre. He's closing in on his 36th birthday and he's probably getting to the point where he shouldn't face left-handed batters, but Romo can still rack up strikeouts against righties, and he's shown the willingness to pitch in any role, even as an opener. A contender could do worse with their fourth- or fifth-best bullpen option.
Underappreciated relievers
One of the few true lefty specialists still in the game, Jerry Blevins was better against righties (.682) than lefties (.786) last season, though that is an outlier relative to the rest of his career. Fewer teams are dedicating a bullpen spot to a reliever who only gets one or two outs at a time, though perhaps Blevins' success against righties last year will convince a team he's an option to throw a full inning at a time.
In the past a reliever like Jake Diekman would've been a very hot free-agent commodity. He's left-handed, he throws very hard, and he has a long history of excellent strikeout rates. Every team used to want guys like that in their bullpen. Now no team wants to sign him. Eventually some club will sign Diekman and be glad it did it when he piles up strikeouts.
Tony Sipp picked a good time to have a bounce-back year. The Astros gave him a three-year contract prior to the 2016 season, and from 2016-17, he threw 81 innings with a 5.33 ERA. He rebounded with a 1.86 ERA in 38 2/3 innings last year. That's the sort of thing that happens when you trim your home run rate from 2.2 HR/9 to 0.2 HR/9. Because he's left-handed and has some strikeout ability, Sipp will get signed eventually. He might have to settle for a minor league deal though.
A case can be made Adam Warren is the second-best reliever currently sitting in free agency. He's been a top-25 reliever in baseball by WAR over the last six years, and he did almost all of that with the Yankees while pitching in a variety of roles. Warren can set up, he get be a middle reliever, he can go multiple innings, he can even make a spot start. His versatility and the fact he's had success in the pressure cooker of New York might be enough to land Warren a two-year contract similar to Jesse Chavez's deal (two years, $8 million).
Alex Wilson has been a plow horse for the Tigers the last few seasons, doing everything from closing games to setting up to pitching in middle relief. He's neither a big strikeout guy nor a big ground ball guy, but 30 teams times eight bullpen spots per team equals 240 available bullpen spots around the league. There is zero chance there are 240 relievers in baseball who are better than Wilson.
Nick Vincent is a stathead fave because he posts high spin rates. He can be prone to the long ball, but, overall, Vincent is a solid middle innings option who should come very cheap. He might even have to settle for a minor league contract at this point. Vincent's a nice upside play for an analytically savvy team.
Honorable Mention: RHP John Axford; RHP Tony Barnette; RHP Santiago Casilla; LHP Xavier Cedeno; LHP Jorge de la Rosa; RHP Erik Goeddel; RHP Chris Hatcher; LHP Dan Jennings; LHP Aaron Loup; RHP Peter Moylan; RHP Blake Wood
