There are a lot of things I love about Fantasy Football, but one of them is that it gives us a reason to watch even the least appealing matchups. It gives us a rooting interest, even when we don't have one. While I certainly wouldn't call this Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles an unappealing matchup, I do understand there are millions of you who may be watching it without a rooting interest. We're here to fix that with our favorite prop plays for the Super Bowl.
Even if you don't care whether the Chiefs or Eagles win, these plays will give you something to cheer for on Super Bowl Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes over 18.5 rush yards (-119)
I know, the ankle. That's the only reason this number is this low.
Coming into 2023, Mahomes had topped this number in each of his past four playoff games and seven of his past nine postseason contests. In two Super Bowl appearances, he's rushed for 29 and 33 yards. The Eagles led the league with 70 sacks this season and their 124 QB hits were second only to the New York Jets. That's one of the reasons that 10 different quarterbacks ran for at least 20 yards against them in the regular season. As good as they were against the pass, they gave up the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks.
They are going to get after Mahomes, and he's going to have to get outside the pocket. Will the ankle allow it? Considering he threw for 326 yards against the Bengals on one week's rest, I'm expecting the ankle to be near 100% after three weeks of treatment. As we get closer to game time, I would not be surprised if this number creeps closer to 20.
Jalen Hurts under 20.5 pass completions (-101)
I've gone back and forth between whether I like Hurts' completions prop or his attempts prop more. I'm choosing the completions because the odds are slightly better and I think I have more outs, but I like both. Hurts has been below 20.5 completions in 10 of 17 games this year and he's been below 31.5 attempts in 11 of 17. He's been well below both numbers in the team's two playoffs games. The reason I like these more than his yardage prop of 241.5 is that I don't necessarily want to bet against Hurts' success, just his volume. I could see Hurts hitting a big play or two downfield to A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith for long touchdowns, I don't believe he's going to march the team down the field via short passes in this game.
The outs, as I see them are plentiful:
- Nick Sirianni could go into this game attempting to establish the run to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.
- The Chiefs could dominate time of possession, keeping Hurts off the field.
- Hurts could attempt 30-plus passes but have an inefficient day as a passer in terms of completion percentage.
- Hurts could have a monster day in terms of yards per attempt, and not need many passes at all to keep his team scoring.
Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions (-154)
Kelce has topped this number in four of his past six games. The two times he didn't, he had six catches and the Chiefs had a three-score lead in the fourth quarter. While I do think the Chiefs win this game, I don't expect they'll win by three scores, so the volume should be there for Kelce. He has at least seven catches in seven of his last eight postseason games, he has 21 catches in two playoff games this season, and he has 16 catches in two Super Bowl appearances. Last week the Bengals "took Kelce away" for long stretches and he finished with seven catches for 78 yards and a score.
Even if the Eagles do a good job limiting Kelce after the catch, it's hard to imagine how they limit his receptions while also getting after Mahomes the way we expect they will.