Opening Day is ripe for overreactions. In the context of a 162-game schedule, most every stat line from that one day is meaningless, and yet never is a slate of games more scrutinized.
But looking beyond the box scores, some things that happened Thursday actually do matter for Fantasy Baseball, at least in the near-term but possibly for the rest of the season. I highlight the top 10 of those things here.
1. Shane Bieber's velocity was down
We're not talking just a little, but an average of 2.2 mph on his fastball, with his spin rates lagging in excess of 200 rpm. Now, there were some extenuating circumstances. The temperature was in the 40s. He's also still building up after an abbreviated spring training, getting pulled after just 72 pitches.
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But it's worth noting he was pulled because of the pitch count, not ineffectiveness. The final line was solid, and he got a healthy number of whiffs on his curveball and slider. Frankly, those breaking balls are so good that he may not need premium velocity on the fastball, though it always helps. The drop in velo is no reason to panic, but it will put his next few starts under the microscope.
2. Shohei Ohtani's velocity was up
He already won AL MVP last year. Maybe he's going for a Cy Young next. If he can sustain this sort of velocity jump all season long, shoot, what's stopping him?
Thursday's average velocity for each pitch is in the column marked "Avg." Last year's average velocity for each pitch is in the column marked "Yr-Avg." The difference is shown in red.
Yeah, it's up, way up -- and on every pitch, no less. Even the Astros, who had the No. 1 offense last year, were helpless against Ohtani, striking out nine times in 4 2/3 innings. The softer-tossing version of Ohtani had a 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 last year. What could one averaging 98 mph on his fastball accomplish? Perhaps we were too quick to assume you'd always choose to use him as a hitter this year.
3. Anthony Bender was anointed Marlins closer
While all those games were happening, Marlins manager Don Mattingly might have delivered the most consequential news of all, calling Anthony Bender his "go-to" for the ninth inning. We knew the right-hander was a candidate to fill in for the injured Dylan Floro, but rarely these days do we get an honest to goodness proclamation.
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And the truth is that Bender is better than Floro -- the best reliever the Marlins have, actually. Now that Mattingly has opened the door to using him in the ninth, it probably stays that way. I'd pick up Bender over most any speculative saves source at this point.
4. The Reds introduced a new closer candidate
It wasn't Art Warren who got the first save chance with Lucas Sims sidelined, but Tony Santillan, who was up to the task with two strikeouts in a perfect ninth inning. It's not clear he was Plan A. He started warming up with the Braves rallying in the eighth, so maybe manager David Bell simply didn't want to waste those bullets. But now that he's seen the way Santillan looks in the role, he might just stick with him. After all, Santillan had a 2.36 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 12.2 K/9 in 22 relief appearances last year, which are certainly closer-caliber numbers. Frankly, I like the idea of adding the right-hander off the waiver wire even more than adding this next guy ...
5. David Robertson got the Cubs' first save chance
Part of what makes the pursuit of saves so frustrating these days is that we never know whether to believe what we see, but this particular save came in the most conventional of circumstances. Manager David Ross called on two of Robertson's primary competitors, Rowan Wick and Mychal Givens, to preserve a lead in the eighth before bringing in Robertson for the ninth. The 37-year-old has the most closer experience of the three and is back to full health after a few injury-plagued seasons. You could see him taking the role and running with it, making him worth a claim in any league where saves are scarce.
6. Tylor Megill showed front-line potential
If there's any player to add off the waiver wire based solely on the events of opening day, it's ... well, it's one of the three saves sources highlighted above. But if not them, it's Megill, whose average fastball velocity was up 1.5 mph from a year ago, peaking at 99.
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It clearly had an effect, too, not only in terms of keeping runs off the board, but also for more reliable indicators like swinging strikes, of which he had 10 on just 68 pitches. It opens my mind to new possibilities for him upside-wise, and it's worth jumping in on as many of those early-season breakthrough possibilities as you can.
7. C.J. Abrams was out of the lineup
The 21-year-old defied the odds, making the Opening Day roster after playing in just 42 games above A-ball (and 76 in the minor leagues period), and then had to watch it all from the bench. The Padres were facing a left-hander, Madison Bumgarner, and Abrams indeed bats left-handed. Maybe that's how things play out for a while, but if he's a firecracker on the days he's in the lineup, spraying line drives all over the field and making full use of his 80-grade speed, he'll quickly assume an everyday role, if primarily for development purposes. Maybe don't start him yet in Fantasy, but keep him close by.
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8. Spencer Strider announced his presence
So that's how he put together a 21 percent swinging-strike rate in the minors last year, a number only Jacob deGrom can relate to. Strider made two relief appearances late last season, but this was him putting the league on notice that he's a force to be reckoned with.
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Of course, it won't mean much for Fantasy Baseball if he remains confined to a multi-inning reliever role, but the Braves still plan to develop him as a starter. He moved so quickly through the minors last year, beginning at low Class A, that he may not have a reliable enough third pitch yet, but sort of like the Brewers' Aaron Ashby, Strider could be a big deal before the season is done.
9. Kyle Hendricks reminded everyone of his worth
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His changeup wasn't just difficult for the Brewers to square up. They flat out couldn't hit it. The pitch was responsible for 13 of the veteran right-hander's 17 swinging strikes, which were more than in any start last season and which came on just 83 pitches overall. It won't be that effective every start, but those who wrote Hendricks off after a career-worst season last year may be in for a surprise.
10. Chris Stratton wasn't treated like a closer
He's supposedly the co-closer with David Bednar, but not even setup men are typically used in the seventh inning of a lopsided loss, as happened for Stratton Thursday. That's about as low-leverage as it gets. I'm not saying he won't have any saves this year -- maybe manager Derek Shelton just wanted to get him some work -- but if the Pirates are this loose with his usage, those saves won't be coming in bunches. It's not like this team will encounter many save chances anyway.
