The San Francisco 49ers find themselves on the doorstep of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after winning the NFC Championship, as they are set to face the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. For those watching Kyle Shanahan's club throughout the year, seeing it ultimately land in Las Vegas for this game shouldn't be too surprising. The 49ers were a betting favorite to win it all from the jump and were regarded as one of the top teams in the league from wire to wire.
While that sentiment is true, you should still be surprised that the Niners are in this spot, particularly after the infamous trade-up to the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft blew up in their face. Of course, San Francisco pushed their chips (draft picks) in the middle of the pile that offseason to vault up to the third-overall pick to select quarterback Trey Lance out of North Dakota State. To get that high, the club sent the Miami Dolphins three first-round picks (2021, 2022, and 2023) along with a third-round selection in 2022.
While Miami didn't specifically use every one of those picks, it turned that king's ransom -- by way of trades -- into the likes of Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Bradley Chubb -- all of whom are arguably three of the franchise's top-five players. As for the Niners, Lance did not pan out, starting just four games for the franchise before being traded to the Dallas Cowboys to serve as a backup this past summer.
Under most circumstances, a swing and a miss of this magnitude would've crippled the 49ers, but it didn't. Just three years after that deal, they're playing for a title while Lance is not even on the roster. How'd they do it? How was this team so equipped to absorb such a blunder and go relatively unfazed in its march toward a championship?
First off, you have to look at the luckiest piece of the puzzle: Brock Purdy. The fact that Mr. Irrelevant, the last overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, was able to not only come in, but give the 49ers high-level quarterback play over the last two years, which is like finding the Hope Diamond at the bottom of a haystack. If not for Purdy, San Francisco would've been recycling both Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo and likely lowered their ceiling from what it is currently.
Purdy not only kept the Niners afloat, but he's also given them MVP-caliber play in his first season as the full-time starter in 2023, leading the league in yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating (113.0). This postseason, he became just the fifth quarterback ever that have game-winning drives in both the divisional round and conference championship game in the same playoff run. Again, this is a guy who was the last pick in the draft and just 652 days later will be starting in the Super Bowl. It's basically unprecedented and a major reason the Lance trade can somewhat be looked at as an afterthought instead of a franchise killer.
While Purdy is an essential piece to this recovery, the 49ers did already have a foundation of a Super Bowl roster in place when they made that deal for Lance. Just a few seasons earlier, the team was playing for a title in Super Bowl LIV, and some of the key players from that team are still on board, such as Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa along with head coach Kyle Shanahan. At the time, the move for Lance was looked at as an effort to upgrade from Garoppolo -- who had been unreliable due to his injury history -- for a roster that was ready to contend. Because it had that level of talent already in-house, it gave the organization the ability to ship away all of those picks without lacking playmakers.
Speaking of playmakers, the final leg of why the Lance trade avoided being a nuclear event revolves around some savvy additions the team made on the offensive side of the ball in the years since their last Super Bowl appearance. Acquiring future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Trent Williams and drafting wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk during the 2020 offseason have proven to be monumental additions as to why San Francisco is currently playing for a championship. As was the deal for Christian McCaffrey last season. They shipped four draft picks to the Panthers in exchange for the superstar back, who has since been electric, leading the NFL in scrimmage yards and total touchdowns in 2023.
Having an offensive line anchored by Williams and a skill position group that consists of McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Kittle, and Samuel gave Purdy as good of a landing into the NFL as you could ask for, especially considering Shanahan's QB-friendly offense. While it seems improbable, the combination of bringing in elite offensive weapons, keeping a chunk of the previous Super Bowl core intact, and admittedly getting lucky with the discovery of Purdy are what has the Niners landing on their feet, despite one of the biggest misses in NFL Draft history.
