Fans of Week 15 Monday Night Football opponents New Orleans and Chicago might not want to hear this, but the harsh reality is both the Saints and Bears are lousy football teams. I know it's not an easy thing to be told, let alone admit, but the first step in recovering from hopeless fandom is to admit you're cheering for a crappy football team.
This is how strange the NFL is. The Saints have won at least 11 games in three of their past four seasons and were Super Bowl champions less than five years ago.
But they stink.
And it shows how frustrating this league can be. The Bears haven't had a losing season since 2009 and possess one of the most talented offensive cores in football.
But they also stink.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees is a surefire Hall of Famer. Their coach, Sean Payton, is widely respected and just as widely feared. In Jimmy Graham, they have arguably the best tight end in football.
You would have to search beyond the Milky Way galaxy to find a better 1-2 wide receiver duo than Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery of the Bears. Their quarterback, Jay Cutler, is a former top-12 pick with an arm worthy of a national defense contract.
Stink. Stink. Stink.
And they know it.
"We're not that good," Payton said last week as his team searched for answers following its fourth loss in five games. "I don’t know if it's being not able to handle a little bit of prosperity or a little bit of success. We're not that good."
"They should take us both off Monday Night Football right now," Marshall said last week of his 5-8 Bears and their 5-8 opponent, arguing that neither franchise deserved a chance to play in front of a national audience.
At least Marshall, who last week was placed on injured reserve with fractured ribs and a collapsed lung, no longer has to experience it first-hand. And at least the Bears, who were eliminated from playoff contention for the seventh time in eight years following their fifth loss in seven games 10 days ago, have been put out of their misery.
By virtue of playing in a wretched division, the Saints are still somehow alive in the NFC playoff race, which might only delay the completion of that all-important first step for Saints addicts clinging to their denial.
It's undeniable, though. Monday night, we'll be looking at two of the four lowest-ranked defenses in the NFL. We'll be watching -- or attempting to watch -- two teams with a combined turnover margin of minus-15. We'll be exposed to a matchup between a team that has surrendered a league-high 29 points per game and a team with the worst third-down defense in the league.
But the silver lining is the Bears have nothing to lose and a desperate coach, while the Saints have desperate circumstances and a quarterback with little to lose. At the very least, that makes for entertaining football, especially if you're a rubbernecking sports fan.
And aren't we all?
Let's elaborate while breaking down the matchup in both serious and non-serious fashion. Fifteen things to know:
1. Jimmy Graham is MIA
All across America on Monday night, Fantasy football seasons will be made ... or spoiled. So even though this is a matchup between two teams already guaranteed to finish without winning records, folks from Oregon to Maine and Alaska to Texas will be tuning in to track the players they've owned in virtual fashion since the start of September (or maybe even the end of August).
A lot will ride on Brees, Cutler, Jeffery and Bears weapons Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, but nobody has the potential to cause real-world stress for Fantasy owners quite like Jimmy Graham.
The Saints' All-Pro tight end really has become a microcosm of his team this season.
After all, this was supposed to be his year. In August, after an offseason battle between the player/agent and his team regarding his value in regard to the franchise tag, Graham became the highest-paid tight end in football by signing a four-year, $40 million contract to stay in New Orleans long term.
A few weeks later, with the hype machine blowing fuses, Graham became a common first-round fantasy selection, consistently picked ahead of all of his New Orleans teammates as well as fellow NFL tight ends.
I don't usually harp on Fantasy too much here but the point is that the expectations were sky-high for the then-27-year-old (he turned 28 last month). And of course they were. He was coming off a 1,215-yard, 16-touchdown season despite the fact he was hobbled by foot problems for nearly half the 2013 campaign.
But it's hard to fathom or explain what has happened to Graham in recent weeks.
•Week 11: He's targeted only three times but catches all three passes. Still, only 29 yards receiving and no touchdowns as the offense scores only 10 points in a flat home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
•Week 12: He's targeted a team-high 10 times but catches only six. Two of those go for touchdowns, though, so maybe he's alright? The Saints score a solid 27 points in a tough loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
•Week 13: The Saints dominate the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road, scoring 35 points. And yet, somehow, Graham -- for the first time in over four years -- has zero passes thrown his way. He's shut out on 32 snaps.
•Week 14: He's once again a major focal point of the offense with a team-high 11 targets, but he catches just three of those passes for 25 yards in an embarrassing 41-10 home loss to the Carolina Panthers. Graham, who had never dropped more than two passes in any of the first 74 games of his NFL career, dropped four.
| Jimmy Graham's 2014 season | ||
| Categories | First 9 weeks | Last 4 weeks |
| Catches/game | 6.2 | 3.0 |
| Targets/game | 8.4 | 6.0 |
| Rec. percentage | 73.7 | 50.0 |
| Yards/game | 66.0 | 25.3 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 2 |
| Drops | 1 | 5 |
Third down with the Saints trying to get back in the game late in the first half:
Should have been a big first-down gain:
And going back to the Baltimore game, the Jimmy Graham we all knew and loved wouldn't have settled for anything less than a touchdown on this end-zone play:
So what's wrong with Graham? Is he that flustered by the fact the league has prohibited slam-dunking over the goal post? Maybe going up against a Bears defense that Football Outsiders ranks 31st in coverage against tight ends will help him get back on track.
Or maybe this just isn't Graham's year after all. That sure as hell seems to be the case with most of his teammates.
2. Then again, so is the entire New Orleans offense
Graham wasn't the only culprit last week when it came to dropped passes. There were seven of them, according to Pro Football Focus, while ESPN counted eight. That's unheard of in an NFL game, which has me wondering just how focused this team is.
If we're using PFF's numbers, Brees actually completed 69 percent of his passes that weren't dropped. The 35-year-old shouldn't be let off the hook because he has been forcing things and has been prone to killer interceptions, but only six qualifying quarterbacks were more accurate than him in Week 14 and he continues to lead the league with a completion percentage of 69.3.
Graham hasn't been himself, rookie receiver Brandin Cooks -- who led the all Saints receivers with 53 receptions, 550 yards and three touchdowns through Week 11 -- is on injured reserve, and Marques Colston is having a rough year. Receiver Joe Morgan, who was on the field for the majority of the team's offensive snaps last week, has already been waived.
The running game hasn't been bad (4.7 yards per carry, sixth in the NFL), but poor play from the defense and holes resulting from turnovers -- they ranked in the bottom 10 in football with 22 of them entering Week 15 -- have forced them to be one-dimensional more often than not. Only the Indianapolis Colts have more pass attempts than New Orleans this season.
As a result, the Saints have been held to 10 points twice in the past four weeks. That's something that happened to them only once in their previous 81 games.
| Saints offense in a rut | ||
| Period of time | Held to 10 or fewer points | Held to 330 or fewer yards |
| 81 games (Jan. 2010-Nov. 2014) | 1 | 11 |
| Last 4 games | 2 | 2 |
Per PFF, the offensive line has given up more total quarterback pressures than any other unit in football. And adding injury to insult there, left tackle Terron Armstead -- easily their most valuable pass protector -- missed most of last week's game and hasn't been practicing due to a neck injury.
The experienced Brees is the league's most accurate quarterback under pressure, but he has thrown a league-high seven interceptions under duress this season.
And while Brees has been the second-most accurate passer in the league on passes traveling 20-plus yards, that lack of support is catching up with him. Against the Panthers, he was just 1 for 6 on deep passes with no touchdowns, an interception and zero drops from his receivers.
Just a whole bunch of this:
And this:
It's astonishingly uncharacteristic. But we'll see if a matchup this week with a defense that has given up more 20-yard completions this season than anyone else except the Philadelphia Eagles can cure what ails Brees and Co.
| Most 20-yard passes against, 2014 | |
| Team | Total |
| Eagles | 58 |
| Bears | 51 |
| Patriots | 50 |
| Giants | 50 |
3. Rob Ryan's defense can't stop anyone
Ryan's defense was a pleasant surprise during his first year in New Orleans. After giving up more yardage than any defense in NFL history in 2012, the notoriously aggressive but oft-criticized coordinator came in and put together a unit that somehow finished fourth in the league in terms of both points and yards allowed.
It's beginning to look as though that was an anomaly.
This year, the Saints rank 30th and 31st in points and years, while also ranking 29th when it comes to takeaways.
And it's getting worse. In the past three weeks, they've surrendered 495 net yards per game, which ranks dead last by an embarrassing margin. In two of those games, they were completely helpless on the ground, allowing backs Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce of the Ravens and Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert of the Panthers to rush for 392 yards on 54 carries.
That's an average of 7.2 yards per attempt!
But they were also torched through the air in those games, allowing Baltimore's Joe Flacco and Carolina's Cam Newton -- two quarterbacks who otherwise had not been playing well -- to complete 68 percent of their passes to go along with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers also went for 435 yards against them in Week 13.
Of course, Ryan's personnel hasn't done him any favors. Gone are once-reliable starters Jabari Greer, Malcolm Jenkins and Jonathan Vilma, while their offseason free-agent prize, Jairus Byrd, is on injured reserve. His replacement, Rafael Bush, is also out for the season.
Slot cornerback Corey White is ranked 113th among 113 qualifying corners at PFF. Middle linebacker Curtis Lofton ranks 56th among 60 inside backers. Safety Kenny Vaccaro -- who may or may not have been benched ahead of this game -- ranks 84th among 86 at that position.
If Graham has represented the fall of the offense, Vaccaro, who finished third in Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting last season, has done so with the defense. The No. 15 overall pick from 2013 is the only player in football who has missed more than 15 tackles while also taking nine penalties or more. He has missed 18 tackles in total and has often looked lost in coverage.
It's almost comical watching him over-pursue on this Stewart touchdown run:
Earlier, anyone interested in covering Greg Olsen? No?
So yeah, this defense has the ability to make even a Marshall-less Bears offense look good.
4. Good thing is the Saints are on the road?
That Superdome advantage is no more. For the first time this century, the Saints have lost four straight home games.
| Saints at home under Sean Payton | ||
| Period of time | Record | Points differential/game |
| Last four games | 0-4 | -14.5 |
| Previous 20 games | 20-0 | +19.4 |
On the other hand, the Saints played extremely well in a big road victory over the Steelers and beat the Panthers 28-10 on short rest in Carolina back in Week 9. So maybe a trip to Chicago, where the Bears are only 2-4 this season, is just what the doctor ordered.
5. And good thing the NFC South is the worst division, maybe of all time
That, of course, is the only reason the Saints are contenders while the Bears are already preparing for the offseason, despite the fact these two teams possess identical records.
| Ranking the divisions through Week 14 | ||
| Division | Win percentage | Points differential |
| NFC West | .615 | +142 |
| AFC North | .608 | +100 |
| NFC North | .577 | +45 |
| AFC West | .519 | +13 |
| AFC East | .500 | +93 |
| NFC East | .481 | -13 |
| AFC South | .385 | -157 |
| NFC South | .314 | -223 |
For historical context, here's the NFC South in comparison to the worst divisions we've seen since the league realigned in 2002:
| Worst divisions since realignment (2002) | |||||
| Division | Win percentage | Points differential | |||
| 2014 NFC South* | .314 | -223 | |||
| 2008 NFC West | .375 | -372 | |||
| 2013 AFC South | .375 | -318 | |||
| 2009 NFC West | .375 | -272 | |||
| 2010 NFC West | .391 | -322 | |||
| 2004 NFC West | .391 | -306 | |||
| *Through 13 games | |||||
But the Seahawks had a winning record in 2004 and Arizona had a winning record in 2008 and 2009. The Colts won the AFC South with 11 victories last season. But Seattle won the NFC West with a 7-9 record in 2010, so that's probably the closest comparison.
6. The Bears are down an All-Pro, but it might not cost them much
On the surface, you would imagine the loss of Brandon Marshall could be the type of thing that might doom Chicago (if it wasn't, you know, already doomed).
But the Bears really do have a four-headed monster on offense, which means they should be able to get by without Marshall by shifting the emphasis toward any or all of those three other guys.
Amazingly, despite the fact he's still viewed as -- and paid like -- a No. 1 option, Marshall has been targeted less frequently this season than each of the monster's other three heads.
| Most targeted Bears through 14 weeks | ||||
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | Touchdowns |
| Alshon Jeffery | 116 | 73 | 949 | 8 |
| Martellus Bennett | 108 | 77 | 821 | 6 |
| Matt Forte | 107 | 86 | 724 | 3 |
| Brandon Marshall | 106 | 61 | 721 | 8 |
Now, 106 targets can't be scoffed at. Only 27 players have been thrown to more than 100 times this season, it just so happens that four of them play for the Bears.
| Most players with 100+ targets | |
| Team | Total |
| Bears | 4 |
| Colts | 2 |
| Buccaneers | 2 |
| Broncos | 2 |
| Panthers | 2 |
| Patriots | 2 |
| 49ers | 2 |
| 13 teams | 1 |
| 12 teams | 0 |
And Marshall was one of only 15 players with eight or more receiving touchdowns. Still, he had only three touchdowns in the past 10 weeks after scoring five times in Chicago's first four games.
Since Week 5, he has hardly been a factor in the red zone:
| Top red zone WRs since Week 5 | |||||
| Player | Targets | Catches | Percentage | Yards | Touchdowns |
| Alshon Jeffery | 12 | 7 | 58.3 | 47 | 4 |
| Martellus Bennett | 12 | 5 | 41.7 | 56 | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 7 | 4 | 57.1 | 32 | 2 |
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 3 | 37.5 | 14 | 1 |
The Bears scored 21 fourth-quarter points sans Marshall a week and a half ago against Dallas. Offensively this season, they haven't fared well on paper, but that has more to do with the fact they've turned it over 25 times than anything else. That won't necessarily get better or worse with Marshall out, but at least they have plenty of other options.
Plus, they've had extra time to prepare for a very bad defense. So it'll be interesting to see how Marquess Wilson performs in Marshall's stead. The 2013 seventh-round pick has been eased in slowly after missing the first half of the season due to a broken collarbone, but he was targeted seven times against Dallas, all after Marshall went down.
He had a pretty bad drop against Tampa Bay Bay a few weeks ago:
But he made up for that and sent a strong message with this ballsy first-down grab against Dallas:
Look, at 6-feet-4 and with 4.5 speed, Wilson has the ability to do some big things. He isn't your typical seventh-round pick. The 22-year-old tore it up at Washington State, and he likely would have been chosen a lot higher had he not left the team in his junior year after a tiff with head coach Mike Leach.
"You forget how good he is at such a young player," Cutler said last month. "We had him really going at training camp before he got hurt so we were really excited about him."
7. Is this the end for Jay Cutler?
But what about the guy throwing these balls to Jeffery and Bennett and Forte and Wilson? Cutler should, after all, be one of the luckiest quarterbacks in football. And that may be the case.
But that leaves me wondering: If Cutler has more interceptions than anybody except Jacksonville Jaguars rookie Blake Bortles yet a lower yards-per-attempt average than scrubs like Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown, then what would his numbers look like if he were unlucky?
We're talking about a 31-year-old with a cannon for an arm and all of the support you could ask for.
The offensive line was a punch line in years past, but that's no longer the case. PFF ranks that unit 11th in football in terms of pass-blocking efficiency, and that same source has determined that only seven qualifying quarterbacks have been pressured less frequently than Cutler. Second-year guard Kyle Long is one of only four players at his position, league-wide, who hasn't given up a single sack on at least 800 snaps.
And yet here's all Cutler has been able to do since Chicago's Week 9 bye:
| Jay Cutler in 2014 | ||
| Category | First 8 weeks | Last 5 weeks |
| Games | 8 | 5 |
| Record | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Comp. percentage | 67.2 | 66.2 |
| TD-INT | 17-8 | 9-7 |
| Yards/attempt | 7.1 | 6.7 |
| Passer rating | 95.8 | 85.7 |
Despite being pressured on only seven of 47 dropbacks against Dallas, he failed to pick on a poor defense until it was garbage time. But that shouldn't surprise anyone, because 10 of his 15 interceptions have come on plays in which he wasn't under duress.
Like Marshall, the former first-round pick also signed a hefty long-term contract in the offseason. But while his most famous receiver is expected to return in 2015, there are now serious doubts about whether Cutler is the right man to lead this team going forward.
Whether it's because of injuries or a lack of consistency or plain old bad timing, Cutler has rarely been able to perform at an elite level when this team has needed him. And so reports have emerged suggesting that the team might have "buyer's remorse" regarding that seven-year, $126.7 million contract it gave Cutler in January. Hell, while he continues to support Cutler, even Marshall recently admitted that he would have buyer's remorse in this situation.
The problem is Cutler's contract guarantees him $54 million. That's already a sunk cost, but it's hard to rationalize getting rid of a guy at that price with nobody waiting in the wings. A trade is a possibility, especially in this quarterback-starved league, but the Bears would have trouble getting anything of significance in return and would be left at the drawing board when it comes to their quarterback situation.
My grandmother, who I recently discovered believes Tom Brady is a hockey player, knows full well that backup Jimmy Clausen isn't the answer, and they won't pick high enough in the upcoming draft to nab Heisman Trophy shoo-in Marcus Mariota. So the Bears might want the Cutler era to be over, but they're handcuffed to him for the time being.
On the bright side, Cutler gets to face the Saints on Monday night.
8. Remember when the Bears' defense was great?
You don't even have to go all the way back to 1985. I mean, that's the season that has been celebrated most widely. And of course they were very good in the mid-2000s, as well.
But don't forget that just a few years ago, in 2010, the Bears ranked fourth in terms of points allowed and third in terms of takeaways.
Those were the days, weren't they? Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, Chris Harris, Tim Jennings, Danieal Manning and Israel Idonije at their best. Henry Melton emerging.
Now? Briggs and Jennings are still trucking along, but they're a combined 65 years old. Tillman's on the roster but out for the year. Their highest-rated player at PFF is a 33-year-old Jeremiah Ratliff (also hurt) and their best pass-rusher is a 32-year-old Jared Allen.
The Chicago defense is now made up of used parts, which is why it has surrendered a league-high 29.1 points per game. If that holds up over the final three weeks, the Bears would finish dead last in that category for the first time in franchise history.
Naturally, because they also ranked 30th in terms of points and yardage last season, a lot of folks are calling for defensive coordinator Mel Tucker's job. And while you can't let Tucker completely off the hook, do consider that this defense has reached a rock-bottom point at which it is relying on guys like Willie Young, Ryan Mundy, Will Sutton and Chris Conte to play significant roles.
That might help explain why the veteran Briggs suggested last week that Tucker could merely become the "fall guy."
"Mel has fought hard to go out and get things done the best he knows how and try to put us in position to win in a lot of these games," Briggs said, per the Chicago Tribune. "Unfortunately we haven't been able to do that."
And now they get the Saints and Lions in a six-day time frame. Have fun, Mel.
9. Whatever happened to Kyle Fuller?
I won't harp too hard because this is becoming downright depressing, but the most promising defensive player on Chicago's roster in September has become a tremendous liability over the course of his rookie season.
No. 14 overall pick Kyle Fuller had three interceptions just three games into his NFL career, including two clutch picks during the second half of a comeback victory over the San Francisco 49ers. At that point, the Virginia Tech product was a leading Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate.
Ever since, he has been terrible more often than not.
| Kyle Fuller's strange rookie season | ||
| Category | First 3 weeks | Last 11 weeks |
| Interceptions | 3 | 0 |
| PFF grade | 5.9 | -17.1 |
| TDs allowed | 0 | 5 |
| Opposing completions | 53.3% | 65.6% |
| Opposing rating | 43.6 | 115.2 |
That PFF grade for the first three weeks was the best in football. That grade from the past 11 weeks ranks dead last. During that stretch, Fuller is one of only three qualifying corners who have given up a catch once every seven snaps or fewer.
Drew Brees has undoubtedly considered that this has become the norm:
10. Advanced stat of the week
One thing New Orleans has done extremely well on defense: Cover tight ends. Their Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) against that position is minus-25.3, which ranks second in the NFL. According to FO, the Saints have surrendered only 40.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
However, Panthers tight end Greg Olsen had 10 catches on 11 targets against the Saints last week. And Bears tight end Martellus Bennett is having one hell of a season. Bennett leads all NFL players at that position with 77 catches and needs just 179 yards in three weeks to become just the 18th tight end in NFL history to pick up 1,000 yards in a single season.
So that makes for a great matchup.
11. Under-the-radar stat of the week
The Bears are surrendering 2.48 points per drive. The Saints are giving up 2.44 per drive. No other team in football has allowed more than 2.31.
| Most points allowed per drive, 2014 | |
| Team | Total |
| Bears | 2.48 |
| Saints | 2.44 |
| Falcons | 2.31 |
| Titans | 2.24 |
| Jets | 2.19 |
12. Injuries to watch
•Saints: Brees might be without his blind-side protector if Armstead (neck) can't play and the defense might be without its top sack man if Junior Galette (knee) can't suit up. Armstead's backup, Bryce Harris, has been dreadful in spot duty. And Galette, who has seven sacks, is by far the defense's highest-rated player at PFF.
•Bears: Ratliff (knee) returned to practice last week and should have a chance to play for the first time since Week 12. That would be huge considering how well the 33-year-old has played when healthy this year. Plus, the Saints have a great running game.
Starters Chris Conte (back) and Michael Ola (also back) are also question marks for the Bears, but their backups at safety and guard (Brock Vereen and Ryan Groy) can't be much worse than Conte and Ola have been.
13. Totally useless but sometimes fascinating historical notes
Some indisputable facts, most or all of which will have no impact on Monday's game:
- The Saints have won back-to-back matchups by a combined score of 66-31, including an October 2013 meeting at Soldier Field. Before that, though, the Bears had won four straight vs. New Orleans, including the 2006 NFC Championship Game.
- Excluding the two playoff games where Chicago has defeated the Saints, the all-time series is tied 13-13. But the Bears have a 10-7 edge at home.
- Cutler is 1-2 against the Saints, with the only victory coming when he was in Denver. Brees is 2-4 against the Bears, with one loss coming from his days in San Diego.
- The Bears have won 735 games, the highest total in league history. The Saints have won just 322. But each team has one Super Bowl victory. (Chicago won eight NFL championships before the Super Bowl era.)
- As head coach of the Bears, Mike Ditka was 106-62. He also won six playoff games and a Super Bowl. As head coach of the Saints, Ditka was 15-33.
14. But which city is cooler?
In case your team loses, let's give you a chance to say you live in the cooler metropolis. Just drop this on your football frenemies:
| Which city is cooler? | |||
| Category | New Orleans | Chicago | Winner |
| Best claim to fame | Mardi Gras | Comedy, fire, pizza, tall buildings | New Orleans |
| Celebrities | Lil Wayne, Ellen DeGeneres, Harry Connick Jr. | Harrison Ford, Kanye West, Hillary Clinton | New Orleans |
| Hottest celebrity | Reese Witherspoon | Nadine Velazquez | Chicago |
| Last call | Never (seriously) | 3 a.m. | New Orleans |
| Nickname | Big Easy | The Windy City | New Orleans |
| TV show | Treme | Shameless | Chicago |
| Avg. annual snowfall | None | 37 inches | New Orleans |
This is, admittedly, completely subjective. Feel free to move on to No. 15.
15. Prediction: Lots and lots of points will be scored
These are truly two of the worst defenses in football, and although they've had their issues this season Cutler and Brees should have plenty of opportunities against extremely weak secondaries. The weather conditions are expected to be a little wet, but it won't be too cold so both offenses should have plenty of opportunities to rake.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007. You can also read his work at Bleacher Report, Awful Announcing and This Given Sunday. In order to sound more professional, he wrote this blurb in the third person. Follow him on Twitter. Or don't. It's entirely your choice.
