Packers at Colts
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind. (turf, indoors)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Spread: Packers by 7
Records: Packers (Overall 2-2, 1-0 NFC North); Colts (Overall 1-2, 0-1 AFC South)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Oct. 19, 2008: Packers 34, Colts 14; Sept. 26, 2004: Colts 45, Packers 31. Series record: Packers lead 21-20-1.
What matters: The Packers are coming off their best offensive and worst defensive game of the season, a 28-27 home win over the Saints on Sunday. As they embark on a three-week road swing, they have to figure out their identity. Through the first three games, Green Bay struggled with a surprisingly sluggish offense, an impressively improved defense and the worst of the replacement refs, and went 1-2. Last week, the offense resembled the record-setting one of 2011, putting up more points and yards than it had in a game this season. Unfortunately, the pass defense looked just like last year’s, which was statistically the worst in NFL history. After a difficult first month, the Packers need to take advantage of one of their less daunting matchups to figure out who they are. It won’t be easy, though, as the Colts will be emotionally amped, playing for coach Chuck Pagano, who left the team this week to receive treatment for recently diagnosed leukemia.
Who matters: Above all, Pagano, as numerous players and coaches emphasized during the week. On the field, QB Aaron Rodgers will look to build on his best game of the year against the Saints, when he finished with season highs of 319 yards passing and four touchdowns. The Colts are a middle-of-the-pack pass defense, allowing opponents to throw for 231 yards per game. But they struggle against the run (ranked 25th in the league), allowing 131 yards a game, so the ground game is where the Packers will look to do damage. RB Cedric Benson had his best performance last week, too, pounding out 18 carries for 84 yards and providing the crucial, complementary balance to the passing offense. Look for a steady supply of Benson on Sunday.
Key matchups: Colts OLB Robert Mathis vs. RT Bryan Bulaga. Mathis is a premier pass rusher with a similar build (6-foot-2, 245 pounds) and speedy style as Seattle rookie Bruce Irvin, who put Bulaga through what the lineman called his worst professional game. Mathis, who didn’t practice until Friday this week, has four sacks and a forced fumble this season. If he owns Bulaga on Sunday, Rodgers’ ability is severely mitigated. Another matchup to watch is the Packers' pass defense vs. Colts QB Andrew Luck. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers will likely have some innovative packages and exotic blitzes up his sleeve to try and flummox the brainy first overall pick from Stanford. And veteran CB Charles Woodson loves exploiting rookie QBs as he has eight interceptions in nine games against them. And, of course, how well Benson and Green Bay’s offensive line play against the Colts’ run defense will play a major role in the outcome of the game.
Injuries of note: WR Greg Jennings (groin) is out. He hurt his groin in the season opener, sat out a week, overcame a setback to play at Seattle, then aggravated the injury last week. He’s being held out to let it fully heal. Indianapolis CBs Vontae Davis (ankle) and Justin King (groin) are out, which could mean open season for Rodgers and his receivers. Mathis, who’s probable, and fellow pass-rusher Dwight Freeney (questionable) could be limited by ankle injuries.
Inside stuff: Last year, the Packers' offense was predicated on the big play. Downfield strikes from Rodgers to WRs Jordy Nelson or James Jones came at a video-game rate. Rodgers threw more than 36 percent of his passes more than 10 yards, according to ESPN. But this year, the reigning MVP and single-season passer-rating record-holder has thrown only one-quarter of his attempts more than 10 yards, which is the fifth-lowest rate in the league. And he’s been intercepted three times on such throws, which is one more than he had all of last season. Against a Colts' secondary that will be without two of its top three cornerbacks, expect Rodgers to take some highlight-reel, vintage-2011 shots downfield.
Connections: C Jeff Saturday played 13 years in Indianapolis (1999-2011) and finished tied for fourth in franchise history with 197 games played. He said this week he would consider returning to work in the Colts’ front office. ... P Tim Masthay came into the league with Indianapolis as an undrafted free agent in 2009 and spent part of that training camp with the Colts.
Stat you should know: Zero, as in the Packers allowed zero sacks last week against the Saints, a week after allowing eight in the first half against the Seahawks. Rodgers was sacked 16 times through the first three games, but had a cozy pocket throughout the New Orleans game, and the result was his best passing performance of the season. Keeping Rodgers upright, clean and in rhythm is key for Green Bay.
Record watch: If he plays Sunday, which is likely since Jennings is out, WR Donald Driver will have appeared in 197 career games for Green Bay, which would be the second-most in franchise history. He’s tied with QB Bart Starr for second place.
Bulletin board quote: Largely because of Pagano’s condition, there haven’t been many fighting words from either side. But on Thursday, interim Indianapolis coach Bruce Arians issued the following call to arms to Colts fans: “The one thing that I would like to say is this is a very special week for a lot of reasons. Having been against the Packers, I know how their fans travel and in no way can they come into Lucas Oil this week and take over our stadium. I’m challenging our fans, especially this week, because it’s kind of a unique, special thing. They need to be at an all-time high for Chuck and for the team. We cannot allow the cheeseheads to come in here and take over. I saw it happen in 1999 in the playoff game when the Tennessee Titans came in here, and we had to use the silent count for Jevon Kearse and Kevin Carter. We can’t let that happen.”
Looking ahead: This is the first game of a three-week road stretch for the Packers. Coming off a quirky, first-month schedule where they played Sunday-Thursday-Monday-Sunday, Green Bay has three consecutive games away from home. After Indianapolis, they go to Houston, where the upstart Texans are undefeated in four games. Green Bay finishes the traveling show in St. Louis.
Prediction: Packers 30, Colts 13
Follow Packers reporter James Carlton on Twitter: @CBSPackers and @jimmycarlton88.
