The Phoenix Suns, at least by record, were the second-worst team in the NBA last season, their 24 wins besting only the Brooklyn Nets' 20. That's somewhat deceiving, as Phoenix more or less scrapped the last quarter of the season under the guise of "strategic rest" -- notably sitting a healthy Tyson Chandler, who happened to be having a really solid year, for the final 25 games as the team lost 13 straight in the month of March.
Still, 24 wins is 24 wins. Any way you slice it, Phoenix was a really bad team last year, atrocious defensively and bottom third offensively while playing at the second-fastest pace in the league. Of course, the losing paid at least one major dividend: The Suns landed the No. 4 overall pick, where they took Josh Jackson, who some people had ranked as the best player in what could end up being one of the most talented drafts in recent memory.
If we're being honest here, a similar outcome to this season would be a win for Phoenix: continued development for one of the youngest rosters in the NBA, and another high lottery pick. If the latter were to come to fruition (and there's a very good chance it will), the Suns -- with a core of Jackson, Devin Booker and another elite 2018 prospect, to go along with two more recent lottery picks in 20-year-old Marquese Chriss and 19-year-old Dragan Bender -- would really have something cooking.
Does that mean we're encouraging tanking before the season has even started? Not necessarily. Let's see how it goes. Perhaps the Suns exceed all expectations, and come March, somehow find themselves in contention for the eight seed in the mercilessly loaded Western Conference. That's unlikely, but then again, nobody would've predicted that 48-win season back in 2013-14, when Goran Dragic and Jeff Hornacek nearly took the afterthought Suns to the playoffs.
Either way, whether this team is once again a bottom dweller or manages to become a first-round appetizer for Golden State, it's not about this year for Phoenix. According to this Reddit post, last March, right about the time the Suns were spiraling through that aforementioned 13-game losing streak, managing partner Robert Sarver told season-ticket holders that Phoenix's timeline has them contending by 2020.
That's a reasonable goal -- meaning that, barring a significant trade or free-agent acquisition next summer, winning at any sort of meaningful level isn't a near-term priority. Again, it's all about development, and to a lesser degree, what the Suns might be able to do with a couple interesting trade chips, notably Chandler, Eric Bledsoe, maybe T.J. Warren and perhaps either Chriss or Bender.
Chandler, at 35 years old, can absolutely help a contender, and Bledsoe is a borderline All-Star on a friendly contract, making less than $30 million over the next two years before coming off the books in 2019. At that price, plenty of teams would be interested in Bledsoe, a savvy pick-and-roll player and capable defender who averaged better than 21 points and six assists last year. Cleveland reportedly wanted Bledsoe in a potential trade this summer for Kyrie Irving, which never came to fruition in part because the Suns, smartly, weren't willing to include Jackson in any deal.
With Bledsoe and Booker, the Suns are in a situation at least vaguely reminiscent of where the Warriors were at back in 2012, when they had to decide between handing the franchise keys to the established player in Monta Ellis or the up-and-coming scoring guard Stephen Curry, knowing it was going to be tough to succeed with that small a backcourt and no clear lead dog. It's way too early to compare Booker to Curry in any way, but he's really young, he can really shoot and score and he fits the Suns' timeline.
Finding a good deal for a good player in Bledsoe, one that hopefully nets a nice draft pick in return, would be a nice score for Phoenix, which also has some interesting flexibility with the aforementioned T.J. Warren, who re-signed this summer on a four-year, $50 million deal. That may sound like a lot of money for a guy you might not know much about, but in the current salary landscape, for a long, 24-year-old natural scorer who averaged better than 14 points and five boards last year (and may have 20 ppg in his bag under the right circumstances), it's a mutually beneficial number.
Putting Warren at the three position, alongside Jackson, who could be a matchup nightmare at the four in certain lineups, opens up a lot of possibilities on both ends of the floor. If Bender, who can feasibly play the three, four or five depending on matchups, starts to come into his own, now we're talking.
If the Suns like what they see, they can ride with Warren through the contract without jamming their books and, in a perfect world, have a big-time bench scorer to support a starting lineup chock full of lottery picks. If they don't like what they see, it's a contract that can likely be moved if they want to possibly take on an expiring deal for more draft picks. Like Chandler and Bledsoe, Warren can help a good team right now.
Ultimately, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about the evolving core of this Suns team. But patience is still the word of the year. Let's hope Booker raises his efficiency and take strides toward becoming at least a passable defender. Let's hope Jackson is the athletic, versatile-defending monster a lot of smart people believe him to be. Let's hope Bender taps more into his Toni Kukoc-like potential versatility and skill. Let's hope Chriss develops his game beyond his athletic freakishness and occasional 3-point competence.
But, even if all that happens, the Suns are pretty clearly a non-factor in the grand scheme of this year. You could easily argue that sneaking into the playoffs, though it would be huge for their young players' confidence and development, would actually be a missed opportunity for this organization. Remember, the recently approved change to the lottery structure, which is designed to discourage tanking by giving the teams with the three worst records the same odds of landing the top pick, doesn't take effect until 2019. In the meantime, don't be surprised if you see the Suns hovering around 25-30 wins in March and taking another thinly veiled dive down the stretch of the season.
