The Dallas Mavericks will be in desperation mode when they face the Miami Heat on Saturday night. Dallas is a half-game behind Oklahoma City for the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament with five games remaining in the regular season. Miami has lost three straight games to fall two games back of Brooklyn for the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Miami is favored by 1 point in the latest Heat vs. Mavericks odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 224.5. Before entering any Mavericks vs. Heat picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 24 of the 2022-23 NBA season a stunning 70-36 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Mavericks. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Heat vs. Mavericks:
- Heat vs. Mavericks spread: Heat -1
- Heat vs. Mavericks over/under: 224 points
- Heat vs. Mavericks money line: Miami -115, Dallas -105
- Heat vs. Mavericks picks: See picks here
Why the Heat can cover
Dallas has lost five of its last six games, scoring just 17 points in the fourth quarter of its loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Mavericks have scored more than four points fewer than their season average in four of their last five losses, and they are on the final leg of a four-game road trip. Miami is returning home following a pair of road games, losing to Toronto and New York earlier this week.
The Heat have gone 25-14 at home this season, while Dallas is 15-24 (17-22 against the spread) in its 39 road games. Miami is led by veteran small forward Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 22.6 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists. The Heat have won eight of their last 11 home games against Dallas and are motivated to make a late run at the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas is not in its best form, but Miami has lost three straight games and is struggling to generate points on the offensive end. The Heat are averaging 95.8 points in their last four losses dating back to a loss at Chicago on March 18. They rank last in the NBA in scoring (108.7), and their four-game output is almost 13 points fewer than that.
The Mavericks led Philadelphia by as many as 12 points in the first half on Wednesday, with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic combining for 47 points. Doncic leads the Mavericks with 32.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.1 assists per game, while Irving is adding 26.1 points and 5.9 assists. Dallas has won and covered the spread in four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams.
How to make Heat vs. Mavericks picks
The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
