The Elly De La Cruz show rolled on Wednesday night. De La Cruz went 3 for 5 with a double and three stolen bases in the Cincinnati Reds' come-from-behind win over the Philadelphia Phillies (CIN 7, PHI 4). The 22-year-old switch-hitter is up to .313/.412/.651 with seven home runs and 15 stolen bases in 2024.
"The way he's handling it is everything," Reds manager David Bell said when asked what's impressed him most about De La Cruz following Wednesday's win (via the Associated Press). "He continues to work. He understands the situation. He's not just aimlessly running out there. He understands the pitchers who are on the mound, what's he's up against and then ability just taking over."
A year ago at this time, De La Cruz was one of the very best prospects in the minors and he burst onto the scene with towering home runs, electrifying baserunning, and a cycle. He also wasn't very good? De La Cruz slashed .235/.300/.410 with a sky high 33.7% strikeout rate in 98 games last season, numbers that made him roughly 11% worst than the league-average hitter.
Things did not start especially well this year either. De La Cruz went 8 for 33 (.242) with 17 (!) strikeouts in his first nine games. He then had an inside-the-park and outside-the-park homer in the same game against the Milwaukee Brewers on April 8, and it's been an all-out assault against opposing pitchers since. De La Cruz is 18 for 50 (.360) in his last 15 games.
To be sure, there are still warts in De La Cruz's game -- he's made five errors at shortstop and his strikeout rate remains elevated at 32.0% -- though there are also encouraging signs under the hood. Encouraging enough to suggest this April hot streak is not a fluke, and indicative of De La Cruz getting to the next level. Here are three reasons to believe he's taken the next step.
1. He's not chasing as much
De La Cruz is listed at 6-foot-5 and he looks like he might be an inch or two taller than that. Regardless of his listed height, he has very long arms, and hitters with long levers typically have less than stellar contact rates. That's just the way it goes in this sport. Strikeouts are likely to always be part of De La Cruz's game. It is what it is.
Last year De La Cruz made matters worse by chasing out of the strike zone excessively, particularly against non-fastballs. He would expand the zone and get himself out at times. This year though, De La Cruz has cut his chase rate, and has done a better job staying within the strike zone. A graph is worth a thousand words:
The improved chase rate shows up in De La Cruz's walk rate: 13.4% of plate appearances this year after a league average-ish 8.2% last year. The 5.2 percentage point increase is ninth largest among the 233 players with at least 400 plate appearances in 2023 and 90 plate appearances in 2024. The young man's grasp of the strike zone has improved considerably.
2. He's making better contact in the air
De La Cruz had a 91.7 mph average exit velocity last season and it's 92.7 mph in the early going this year, which is excellent. The league average is 88.7 mph and only a handful of players are true talent 92 mph exit velocity guys. It's Ronald Acuña Jr., Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., etc. The game's very best hitters, basically.
Given his natural power, you'd really like De La Cruz to lower his 52.9% ground ball rate. It was 53.9% last year, and although hard-hit grounders are more likely to go for a hit than weak grounders, you'd much rather hit the ball hard in the air. De La Cruz is not elevating enough yet, but he is hitting the ball harder when he does get it in the air.
Here are his numbers on fly balls and line drives:
| Average exit velocity | Hard-hit rate (i.e batted balls over 95 mph) | |
|---|---|---|
2023 | 95.2 mph | 57.7% |
2024 | 98.6 mph | 69.6% |
MLB average | 92.7 mph | 48.3% |
We can dream on De La Cruz cutting his strikeout rate to a league average 22.5%, but this is the next step right here. Hit the ball in the air more often, because when he does elevate it, he hits the ball as hard as anyone in the sport. The league average ground ball rate is 43.2%. De La Cruz is a 40-homer season waiting to happen with a ground ball rate in the 40% range.
3. He's picking his spots better on the bases
Fun fact: De La Cruz has stolen third base more times than he's stolen second base this season. He has eight steals of third and seven of second. His 15 steals lead the league (and so do his three caught stealings). Last year, De La Cruz went 35 for 43 stealing bases for a strong 81% success rate. In the early going this year, his success rate sits at 83%.
Last year, De La Cruz's baserunning was aggressive and borderline reckless. This year he's not quite as daring. Eight of his 15 steals have come in three games. During Wednesday night's game, he stole two bases against José Alvarado, who, despite being a lefty, is not great at holding runners. Also, catcher Garrett Stubbs has had only an average-ish caught stealing rate throughout his career.
On April 19, De La Cruz stolen three bases against the Los Angeles Angels and catcher Logan O'Hoppe, whose 14% caught stealing rate was comfortably below average in 2023. On April 7, he stole two bases against the New York Mets, who haven't been able to stop runners for two years now. De La Cruz is picking his spots better on the bases.
The Reds are averaging 5.29 runs per game, seventh most in baseball, and they have guys other than De La Cruz who can really, really hit. Spencer Steer is supremely underrated and Will Benson and Jake Fraley are elite platoon bats. You don't want to make outs on the bases with those guys at the plate. De La Cruz is being much smarter about when he pushes the envelope.
