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Week 14 Rankings | Top 150 Flex Rankings | Week 14 Projections
It's the start of the Fantasy playoffs in the majority of leagues, so every point matters and every yard is of the utmost importance. We need all we can get.
The goal is to maximize your roster in every way possible. That could mean benching a stud like LeSean McCoy in favor of waiver wire guys like Tre Mason or Dan Herron. Kenny Stills might be better than T.Y. Hilton, and Donte Moncrief should be better than Sammy Watkins.
You can't worry about when a player was drafted or feeling like you must start someone based on name value. It's win and advance, and you just need to get three more victories for your ultimate prize.
We're going to help get your roster in great shape, something we hopefully have done all season. We haven't always been right -- believe me, I wish I was clairvoyant -- but the idea was to give you food for thought when setting your lineup.
One thing we can guarantee this week is a better performance from Jimmy Graham. There's no way he's going without a target for two weeks in a row, so don't hesitate to start him as always in the majority of leagues.
When the season started, most Fantasy owners never thought Mark Ingram would be a starting Fantasy option during Week 1 of the playoffs. But here we are, and Ingram should be great against Carolina in Week 14.
After two down games against Cincinnati and Baltimore at home, Ingram rebounded in Week 13 at Pittsburgh with 23 carries for 122 yards. It was the sixth time this season he's reached double digits in Fantasy points of the nine games he played in (he missed three games with a broken hand).
One of those games with double digits in points was at Carolina in Week 9 when he had 30 carries for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Ingram is one of eight running backs to reach double digits in Fantasy points against the Panthers, and they have allowed 14 touchdowns to running backs this season.
Now, Carolina has been solid against the run of late, holding McCoy and Steven Jackson to fewer than seven Fantasy points in two of the past three games. But Ingram has a good history against the Panthers with at least eight Fantasy points in three of his past five meetings, including three touchdowns.
That might not seem like much, but Ingram's workload has been limited prior to this season. He's a featured running back now, and he's doing a great job all year in search of a new contract. He's also trying to help the Saints win the NFC South, and he should do his part for his team - and Fantasy owners - during this crucial division matchup at home.
I'm starting Ingram over: C.J. Anderson (vs. BUF), Marshawn Lynch (at PHI), LeSean McCoy (vs. SEA), Tre Mason (at WAS), Justin Forsett (at MIA)
QUARTERBACK
Start 'Em
Romo probably cost a lot of Fantasy owners in Week 13 with his poor performance at home on Thanksgiving Day against the Eagles. He had his worst game of the season with 199 passing yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, and playing on the short week last Thursday might not have been good for his back. He had a week to prepare for this matchup, and we hope he does as well this year in Chicago as he did last season with three touchdowns and 22 Fantasy points. The Bears have allowed six quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns against them, including Matthew Stafford last week, and we expect Romo to rebound in a big way this week.
We're playing the percentages here because the Eagles have allowed some great games to quarterbacks more often than not this season, with nine games of at least 20 Fantasy points. And Wilson has also been successful most games this season, scoring at least 18 Fantasy points in nine of 12 outings. He's scored at least 18 Fantasy points in four games in a row, including his past two on the road at Kansas City and San Francisco, and he's rushed for at least 71 yards in three of his past four outings. This should be a great game in Philadelphia, and Wilson typically rises to the occasion in these moments. He's worth starting this week based on the matchup.
Cutler didn't have his best game against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, but a silly interception on the final play of the game dropped him from 21 Fantasy points to 19. We know Cutler isn't an elite quarterback, but his production has been consistent most of the season with eight games of at least 20 Fantasy points, and it should have been nine. The Cowboys have allowed at least 22 Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in three of the past four games, including two in a row to Mark Sanchez and Eli Manning. We have the potential for a shootout this week with Cutler and Romo, and this should be a fun game for Fantasy owners. We hope Cutler does his part and leans on his standout weapons in Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett.
If there was ever a good time for Dalton to have a breakout game, it's this week. And we're buying in to Dalton playing well because the Steelers are a train wreck defensively. They have allowed at least 20 Fantasy points in six consecutive games and eight times this season, including matchups with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, Michael Vick and Zach Mettenberger. Dalton has been terrible of late with only 13 Fantasy points in each of his past two games against Tampa Bay and Houston, but he's coming home after three consecutive road outings and should be ready to lead the Bengals to the AFC North title. He has at least 18 Fantasy points in his past two games against the Steelers, and this could be his best performance of the season based on how bad Pittsburgh's defense has played all year.
Stafford returned to form in Week 13 on Thanksgiving Day against the Bears, and we expect him to stay hot this week against the Buccaneers. He discovered a simple formula to his success, which is throwing the ball to Calvin Johnson. Stafford had 390 passing yards and two touchdowns against Chicago, and Johnson led the way with 11 catches for 146 yards and both scores. This is how Stafford is going to help Fantasy owners win a championship after a down season with only five games with at least 20 Fantasy points, but his schedule is great to close the year (TB, MIN, at CHI and at GB) so start him with confidence down the stretch.
Sleepers
Colin Kaepernick (at OAK): This should be one of his best games this year.
Zach Mettenberger (vs. NYG): The Giants are bad vs. opposing passers.
Teddy Bridgewater (vs. NYJ): He has 41 Fantasy points in his past two games
Sit 'Em
We'd love to see Newton end the season playing well, and this is a good matchup for him since the Saints have allowed seven quarterbacks to score multiple touchdowns and seven to reach at least 19 Fantasy points. But you can't trust Newton at this point in the season. He only has three games this year with at least 20 Fantasy points and only one since Week 6. He has an interception in eight games in a row with 11 over that span, and the Saints have already held him to 12 Fantasy points in Week 9. In fact, he's only averaging 12 Fantasy points in his past four meetings with New Orleans overall, so this could be another rough outing for Newton this week.
Ryan snapped his seven-game streak of games with fewer than 20 Fantasy points with his 24-point outing last week in a tough matchup with Arizona, but that was at home. He's not the same quarterback outdoors, and he's averaging just 17 Fantasy points in seven games outside, with only one 20-point outing in Week 4 at Minnesota. The Packers also have been tough on opposing quarterbacks at home, giving up an average of 16 Fantasy points in six games, with Tom Brady's 21 points in Week 13 the best showing, including matchups with Cutler, Sanchez and Newton. Ryan should benefit with Roddy White (ankle) expected to play, but Green Bay has forced eight interceptions and three fumbles from quarterbacks at home.
The opponents haven't exactly been stellar, but the last time the Seahawks allowed a quarterback to score a touchdown was Week 10, and they have shut out Alex Smith, Drew Stanton and Kaepernick. Derek Carr in Week 9 is the last quarterback with multiple touchdowns against the Seahawks, and Tony Romo in Week 6 is the last quarterback with 20 Fantasy points. The return of linebacker Bobby Wagner in Week 12 has been huge for this defense, and Sanchez could struggle to find success this week. He has done well in favorable matchups (25 Fantasy points vs. Carolina in Week 10 and 22 points at Dallas in Week 13) and struggled in tough situations (17 points at Green Bay in Week 11 and 14 points vs. Tennessee in Week 12). This is a tough week, so plan accordingly if you expect to get a good performance from Sanchez.
Prior to last week, when Fitzpatrick exploded for 50 Fantasy points, the Titans hadn't given up a lot of production to opposing quarterbacks because their run defense was so bad. Andrew Luck, Brian Hoyer, Blake Bortles and Fitzpatrick are the only quarterbacks with more than 16 Fantasy points against Tennessee, including matchups with Romo, Dalton, Sanchez and Ben Roethlisberger. We're expecting the Giants to lean on their running game this week, especially with Manning getting turnover prone of late. Manning only has one game with more than 13 Fantasy points in his past four outings, and in his three poor performances against Seattle, San Francisco and Jacksonville he has nine turnovers (five interceptions and four fumbles). He also has 13 Fantasy points or less in four of six road games this year.
Flacco is coming off a big game against the Chargers in Week 13 with 27 Fantasy points. His roller coaster of a season continues with four games of at least 22 Fantasy points and five games with 15 points or less. This is not a good week to trust Flacco against the Dolphins. Miami has held Cutler (nine Fantasy points), Philip Rivers (minus-3 points), Kyle Orton (seven points) and Geno Smith (one point) to limited production since Week 7. Stafford (21 points) and Peyton Manning (36 points) are the only quarterbacks with success against the Dolphins over that span. I don't even want to use Flacco in two-quarterback leagues this week, and I'd rather go with Mettenberger, Bridgewater, Colt McCoy and Shaun Hill in those formats.
Bust alert
Garbage time saved Roethlisberger as our Start of the Week in Week 13 with two touchdowns and two two-point conversions against New Orleans in the final three minutes to finish with 29 Fantasy points. He now has at least 18 Fantasy points in all six home games, but he's failed to score 20 Fantasy points on the road in six outings. He's also been miserable against the Bengals with 19 Fantasy points or less in each of his past six meetings and only one game with more than 15 points. And, in their past four games, the Bengals have allowed a combined 33 Fantasy points against Hoyer, Drew Brees, Ryan Mallett and Josh McCown. While that isn't a gauntlet of opposing passers aside from Brees, Roethlisberger's history in this matchup and his performance on the road this year makes him someone to avoid this week.
RUNNING BACK
Start 'Em
I liked Bell heading into Week 13 against Chicago, and he didn't disappoint with 23 carries for 91 yards and two touchdowns and two catches for 16 yards. It was his fifth game this season with double digits in Fantasy points, and we're expecting more to come. Reggie Bush (ankle) is expected to return this week, but we're not worried about Bell losing work. He has at least 15 touches in nine of the 11 games he's played, and this is a favorable matchup for him against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has allowed 13 touchdowns to opposing running backs and 12 to reach double digits in Fantasy points, including four in the past five games.
We had Herron as a sleeper last week, and he came through in a tough matchup against the Redskins with eight carries for 88 yards and a touchdown and two catches for 8 yards. He now has at least 90 total yards in two games since Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) got hurt, but he's also lost two fumbles, which could be costly if this becomes a persistent problem. His matchup this week is favorable since the Browns have struggled in run defense due to a litany of injuries, allowing four running backs to score at least nine Fantasy points in their past five games. I expect Trent Richardson to get a goal-line opportunity this week in his return to Cleveland, so consider him a sleeper, but Herron is the running back of choice in Indianapolis for the Colts and Fantasy owners.
Gore has the chance for a big week, so hopefully he'll come through in this favorable matchup. He only has four games this season with double digits in Fantasy points, and he's been disastrous lately with three Fantasy points combined in his past two outings against Washington and Seattle. But the Raiders are bad in run defense with 16 touchdowns allowed and 11 scoring double digits in Fantasy points. At home, Oakland has allowed Arian Foster, Branden Oliver, Andre Ellington, C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles to all have over 120 total yards with four touchdowns. This should be a layup for Gore, and we also like Carlos Hyde as a sleeper.
The matchup would suggest sitting Mason this week based on Washington's ability to limit opposing running backs. Only two running backs have run for 100 yards against the Redskins and only six have reached double digits in Fantasy points. Mason also hasn't topped eight Fantasy points on the road yet in four games at Kansas City, San Francisco, Arizona and San Diego. But he was amazing last week against the Raiders with 164 total yards and three touchdowns, and while he definitely won't replicate that performance, he should still do well. He now has double digits in Fantasy points in two of his past three games, and he has at least 17 touches in five games in a row. He's also started to improve as a receiver with at least two Fantasy points from his receiving totals in three of the past four games. There's a lot to like about Mason this week, even with a tough opponent, and I consider him a Top 15 running back in the majority of leagues.
The Dolphins run defense has been tested the past two games, and they have failed against Denver and the Jets on the road. Anderson ran through Miami with 27 carries for 167 yards and a touchdown, and Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson combined for 33 carries for 167 yards on Monday night. For the season, the Dolphins have allowed nine touchdowns to running backs and seven to reach double digits in Fantasy points. Forsett fell from the stratosphere in Week 13 against San Diego when he only scored 11 Fantasy points, which was down from the 53 combined points he scored in the previous two games against Tennessee and New Orleans. But he's scored at least nine Fantasy points in nine consecutive games, and we expect that streak to continue this week.
Sleepers
Jonathan Stewart (at NO): He should shine with DeAngelo Williams out.
LeGarrette Blount (at SD): I'm expecting a touchdown this week.
Chris Ivory (at MIN): He should get back on track vs. this shaky defense.
Andre Williams (vs. TEN): He should be great if Rashad Jennings is out.
Matt Asiata (vs. NYJ): With Muhammad Wilkerson out, Asiata has a good chance to score.
Sit 'Em
Jackson has been one of the better surprises this season, and he's playing well of late with double digits in Fantasy points in three of his past four games, with two touchdowns over that span. Last week, he used a 55-yard run to help thrive in a tough matchup against the Cardinals for his first 100-yard outing of the season. But this week, I'd be hesitant to use Jackson in the majority of leagues. He does have three games with at least 12 Fantasy points in seven games outdoors, but he's averaging just eight points overall in those games. The Packers have only allowed six running backs to reach double digits in Fantasy points but none in the past four games, including matchups with Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy. At home, only Ivory and Brandon Bolden have scored touchdowns against the Packers, with Ivory the lone running back to reach double digits in Fantasy points in Week 2.
It was nice to see Martin score for just the second time this season in Week 13 against Cincinnati, and he scored double digits in Fantasy points for the second time this year. But he still averaged just 3.2 yards per carry on 18 carries, and he's not likely to play well for two weeks in a row. The Lions have only allowed six running backs to score double digits in Fantasy points this season but just one in the past four games. The Bears were so concerned about Detroit's run defense that they gave Forte just five carries last week, and he finished with only 8 rushing yards. Martin is the No. 1 running back in Tampa Bay, but he still shares playing time with Charles Sims and Bobby Rainey, especially on passing downs, which could prove costly this week if the Buccaneers are chasing points against the Lions. Martin is just a low-end flex option at best.
Sproles is more sizzle than substance for Fantasy owners because he doesn't produce as much as the highlights suggest. He does have five offensive touchdowns, but he's scored double digits in Fantasy points just twice and none since Week 2. He also doesn't touch the ball enough to warrant a lot of trust with nine touches or less in each of the past five games. He faced the Seahawks twice last year as a member of the Saints, including the playoffs, and had 43 total yards in the regular season and 34 total yards in the playoffs. The good news was he caught seven passes in the first game and five catches in the second game, but he has just one game with more than four catches this season. Seattle has only allowed four running backs to reach double digits in Fantasy points this year, so while you'll continue to start McCoy, you should bench Sproles this week.
Jackson has done well the past two weeks and seems to be over his recent groin injury. He had 10 Fantasy points against the Jets in Week 12, and he had 97 total yards against the Browns last week. He had 24 touches in Week 13, including six catches the past two games, so the Bills are leaning on him over Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown. This week, Jackson should be limited by a solid Broncos run defense. Knile Davis in Week 2 had the best rushing day in Denver with 79 rushing yards. They have allowed five touchdowns to running backs at home, but only Davis and Ellington have scored double digits in Fantasy points in Denver. Jackson should have the chance for a decent amount of total yards, but he's just a flex option at best this week.
Adam Aizer said on one of our podcasts this week that someone will win or lose a playoff matchup over the next few weeks because of Vereen, but you can't predict when he will do well. That's been the case all season. He has four games with double digits in Fantasy points and eight games with six points or less in standard leagues. I'd still keep him active in PPR formats because he does have five games with at least five catches, but he's only scored touchdowns in two games. It's disappointing to see Vereen not get more work -- he has just three games with at least 15 touches -- but the Patriots don't feature him enough to trust in the majority of leagues. If there is a silver lining for Vereen this week it's that the Chargers have allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs, but it's risky to use him based on his recent lack of production with 13 Fantasy points in a standard league in his past three games.
Bust alert
Murray was cleared to return this week from his concussion after sitting out Week 13 at St. Louis. The last time we saw Murray he was a star against the Chiefs on Thursday night in Week 12 when he had four carries for 112 yards and two touchdowns before getting hurt. I hope Murray does well this week because I like his upside, but I'm not ready to start him in the Fantasy playoffs. The 49ers run defense has been hit or miss of late as Ingram and Alfred Morris each had at least 120 rushing yards (with Morris scoring) in the past four games, and Marshawn Lynch had 104 yards last week. But the 49ers have also held Jennings to 59 rushing yards in Week 11, and Mason had 19 carries for 65 yards in Week 9. For the season, only five starting running backs have scored double digits in Fantasy points against the 49ers, and coach Tony Sparano said Murray might not get a full workload this week. I'd consider Murray as a flex, but I'm not expecting a huge game in his return from the concussion.
WIDE RECEIVER
Start 'Em
We had Hopkins as a sleeper last week, but I never expected the return of Fitzpatrick would help him dominate the Titans like he did with nine catches for 238 yards and two touchdowns on nine targets. He now has at least eight Fantasy points in eight of the 10 starts Fitzpatrick has made, so clearly there's a rapport that works for Hopkins. He has a favorable matchup this week against the Jaguars, who have allowed 12 touchdowns to opposing receivers and nine to reach double digits in Fantasy points. Last year in Jacksonville, Hopkins had three catches for 76 yards on seven targets, but he's a much better player this time around and should be started in all leagues.
I thought Stills would play well once Brandin Cooks (thumb) went down, but he's exceeded my expectations. He was listed as a sleeper last week, and he went off for five catches for 162 yards and a touchdown on six targets at Pittsburgh. He now has at least nine Fantasy points in three games in a row, and he had five catches for 72 yards on eight targets at Carolina in Week 9 when he was behind Cooks and Marques Colston on the depth chart. He should continue to play well this week since the Panthers have allowed 16 touchdowns to opposing receivers and 11 to reach double digits in Fantasy points. The Saints are generally better offensively indoors, and Stills should continue to cause matchup problems for this shaky secondary.
Benjamin should be looking for redemption this week against the Saints, who held him to two catches for 18 yards despite 10 targets in Week 9 at home. Since then, the Saints have allowed some big games to No. 1 receivers like Anquan Boldin (15 Fantasy points), A.J. Green (18 points), Torrey Smith (nine points) and Antonio Brown (21 points). For the season, New Orleans has allowed 15 touchdowns to opposing receivers and 13 have reached double digits in Fantasy points. Last week's game at Minnesota was the first time Benjamin failed to score on the road, but Newton is doing what he can to get him going with at least 10 targets in three of the past four games. We hope Benjamin will play well this week and finish with double digits in Fantasy points for the third time in his past four games.
Wallace had one of his better games in Week 13 at the Jets with six catches, which is a new season-high, and he also added 69 yards on 11 targets. He dropped a touchdown, which was frustrating, but he should redeem himself this week. The Ravens are terrible in their secondary, so Wallace has the chance to make plays. Baltimore has allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing receivers and 14 have reached double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league. Last week, the Chargers had three receivers gain at least 80 yards against Baltimore, so there's room for Jarvis Landry to also play well against the Ravens, and he should be considered a sleeper. We hope Wallace will rise to the occasion to help the Dolphins make a serious playoff push and also help Fantasy owners at a crucial time. There's a lot to like about Wallace and Landry this week, so hopefully they will come through.
The Steelers defense is struggling heading into this game, and the Bengals should take full advantage of this opportunity. Pittsburgh has allowed 12 touchdowns to opposing receivers and nine to reach double digits in Fantasy points, including Stills last week. Sanu needs a good performance with just one game with double digits in Fantasy points in his past four outings, and coming home should help. He has a great track record at home with double digits in Fantasy points in four of five games. Prior to last week at Tampa Bay, when he was held to two catches on 19 yards with three targets, Sanu had at least seven targets in eight of his past 10 games, so we hope that continues. In this matchup, if the targets are there, the production will follow.
Sleepers
Stedman Bailey (at WAS): He emerged when Hill became the starter.
Marqise Lee (vs. HOU): He has 13 targets in his past two games.
Donte Moncrief (at CLE): Last week could lead to a big stretch run.
Eddie Royal (vs. NE): When he plays well, Rivers usually does also.
Percy Harvin (at MIN): He could be looking for revenge going back to Minnesota.
Sit 'Em
Watkins is struggling right now, and he's battling a hip injury on top of it. He will likely play through the ailment as long as Buffalo remains in playoff contention, but Robert Woods is the better Bills receiver for Fantasy use. In his past four games, Watkins has combined for 13 catches, 105 yards and no touchdowns on 31 targets. Buffalo is trying to get him involved, but he's not connecting with Orton heading into this matchup. It's also a difficult opponent since Denver has done well against outside receivers this season. Kenny Britt is the lone opponent to have over 100 yards and only eight have reached double digits in Fantasy points. With the way Watkins has played of late, he's not worth the risk in the Fantasy playoffs.
I went all in on Bryant last week -- seasonal leagues, FanDuel, you name it -- and he let me down with one catch for 23 yards against the Saints at home. It wasn't all his fault with just four targets, which was a season-low, but if he doesn't hit a home run with the deep ball then his production is clearly going to be minimal. The Bengals have been great against opposing receivers all season with only six touchdowns allowed and five reaching double digits in Fantasy points. While you're still going to start Antonio Brown in all leagues, you should be able to bench Bryant this week, especially with Roethlisberger's poor history in Cincinnati.
This should be a fun matchup to watch with Maclin against Richard Sherman. Maclin is coming off his first 100-yard game since Week 9 when he had eight catches for 108 yards at Dallas in Week 13. He has double digits in Fantasy points in two of his past three games, but his production has waned since Sanchez took over for Nick Foles (collarbone). Still, Maclin is an elite receiver, and we've seen teams have success on Sherman's side of the field this season, specifically DeSean Jackson (five catches for 157 yards and a touchdown) in Week 5 and Odell Beckham (seven catches for 108 yards) in Week 10. But we've also seen receivers in general struggle against the Seahawks this year with only four touchdowns allowed and five reaching double digits in Fantasy points. I like Jordan Matthews better than Maclin this week, and I would bench him if you can in standard formats.
It's risky to sit LaFell since he's been consistently good for the Patriots and Fantasy owners with at least nine Fantasy points in six of his past nine games. He scored two touchdowns at Green Bay in Week 13 and has five touchdowns on the road in his past four road outings, but he could face a tough matchup this week if the Chargers decide to use Brandon Flowers on him. Last week, Flowers shut down Steve Smith with one catch for 2 yards, and No. 1 receivers have struggled against San Diego for most of the season because of Flowers. Larry Fitzgerald, Watkins, Wallace and Smith have been held to five Fantasy points or less against the Chargers, and Flowers could make things tough on LaFell. There's no guarantee that's where Flowers lines up -- he could see time against Rob Gronkowski -- but I'd lower expectations with LaFell this week and consider him more of a No. 3 receiver than a No. 2 option.
Torrey Smith (knee) is banged up this week, and his availability could decide where Miami lines up with cornerback Brent Grimes. Maybe the Dolphins do what the Chargers did with Flowers and put Grimes on Steve Smith since he was eliminated from the game with one catch for 2 yards last week. Or they could put Grimes on Torrey Smith since he's clearly the better playmaker. Either way, Steve Smith has proven to be a risky Fantasy commodity. He has one game with double digits in Fantasy points since Week 6 since he scored a touchdown at New Orleans in Week 12. Otherwise he's been at six Fantasy points or less in five of his past six games while Torrey Smith has taken over as the best receiver for this offense. We'll find out who gets the Grimes treatment for the Ravens and if Torrey Smith even plays, but I'd shy away from Steve Smith in this matchup because he's just not getting the job done for Fantasy owners.
Bust alert
The receiver we've seen the past two weeks is the Allen many Fantasy owners expected all season. He has 36 Fantasy points in a standard league in his past two games against St. Louis and Baltimore with 17 catches for 225 yards and three touchdowns on 23 targets. The targets have been consistent of late with at least eight in each of his past six games, but he's reached double digits in Fantasy points just three times over that span. But now, he could struggle again because of a potential matchup with Darrelle Revis. Rivers won't be afraid to throw at Revis, and he proved that by challenging Sherman against the Seahawks in Week 2. But Revis should be able to stay with Allen in single coverage, and Allen has eight games this season with six Fantasy points or less. We hope he continues to be successful this week, but I'd be hesitant to start him. I actually think Antonio Gates and Royal could be where Rivers attacks because those are the vulnerable spots for the New England defense.
TIGHT END
Start 'Em
There's a good chance Dwayne Allen (ankle) could return this week, but don't let that hinder you from starting Fleener. He's been too good, and Luck is leaning on him in a big way. He has three games with double digits in Fantasy points in his past four outings, and in those games where he's done well he's had at least seven targets. Last week, Fleener was a star with four catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns, but he also dropped a wide-open pass where he likely would have scored again. The Browns have only allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends, but Fleener and Allen would prove to be a difficult matchup. And we're counting on Fleener to stay hot this week.
Bennett was a surprise performer in Week 13 against the Lions because he played well in a game past September, which is rare. He had eight catches for 109 yards on 11 targets, which tied Marshall and were second only to Jeffery. This was the 10th time this season he's had at least six targets, which could be important in this matchup with the Cowboys, who are among the worst teams at defending tight ends this year. There have been eight times this season where a tight end had six or more targets against Dallas, and when that has happened the tight end has either scored a touchdown or had at least 75 receiving yards seven times. Bennett, who started his career with the Cowboys, is a risky starting option because of his inconsistent play, but almost every tight end is a risk these days. Hopefully he can stay hot for another week in this matchup.
Rudolph only had two catches for 7 yards in Week 13 against the Panthers, but he made it count with his first touchdown since Week 1. He continues to make strides in his return from hernia surgery, which cost him six games. He should have the chance for a great game based on the matchup since the Jets have allowed the most touchdowns (12) to opposing tight ends and the second-most Fantasy points to the position behind the Bears. Since Week 8, a span of five games, the Jets have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends. We'd like to see Rudolph more involved since he has just eight targets in the past two games, but this is a good week to consider using him in most leagues.
Sleepers
Heath Miller (at CIN): He's got 13 grabs for 153 yards in his past two games.
Timothy Wright (at SD): I'd gamble on him scoring again this week.
Travis Kelce (at ARI): A tight end has scored vs. Arizona in two straight games.
Sit 'Em
Rivera continues to struggle heading down the stretch, and he's not a recommended option even in the deepest of leagues. I'd rather trust the touchdown-dependent guys like Anthony Fasano or Richard Rodgers than Rivera right now. He has just six Fantasy points in his past three games against San Diego, Kansas City and St. Louis despite 17 targets, so the Raiders are trying to get him involved but just not connecting. The 49ers have only allowed two tight ends to reach double digits in Fantasy points this year, and we doubt Rivera will add his name to that list. Ignore him in the majority of leagues this week.
At some point we're going to see Ebron come through with a big game, but it might not happen until 2015. He's not taking advantage of good matchups and isn't getting enough targets to consider as a starting option in the Fantasy playoffs. Ebron has combined for six Fantasy points in his past three games with 15 targets over that span. He only has one touchdown on the season and no games with double digits in Fantasy points. Tampa Bay also has done well against tight ends this season with just two touchdowns allowed and only two to reach double digits in Fantasy points. I'd stash Ebron in keeper and dynasty leagues, but he has minimal value in standard formats the rest of the season.
The stats will tell you the Seahawks have struggled with tight ends this season since they have allowed 10 touchdowns to the position, which is tied with the Bears for second-most, behind only the Jets (12). But even with that high touchdown total, Seattle has allowed just two tight ends to reach double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league, which were Gates and Rivera. The Seahawks have been able to limit Julius Thomas, Jason Witten, Greg Olsen, Larry Donnell and Vernon Davis to eight Fantasy points or less, with Olsen (one point), Donnell (two points) and Davis (one point) really being non-factors. Celek has emerged as the better Fantasy tight end than Zach Ertz, but that doesn't make him a must-start option. This matchup should keep him reserved in the majority of leagues.
Bust alert
I'm OK with Reed in a PPR league, but I would sit him in a standard league this week. The Rams should be able to shut him down. Going back to 2012, a span of 44 games, St. Louis has allowed just 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends and only four to reach double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league. Cooper Helfet is the lone tight end to reach that mark this season. Reed was great last week at the Colts with nine catches for 123 yards on 11 targets, and he's played well in two games with Colt McCoy this year, combining for 16 catches and 163 yards on 18 targets. It's clear the two have a rapport, but the Rams have been able to lock down tight ends, so take that into consideration if you plan to use Reed this week.
KICKER
Start 'Em
Dawson hasn't been good this season because the 49ers offense has struggled. He only has three games with double digits in Fantasy points and has combined for eight Fantasy points in his past two games. But in his previous two road games at New Orleans and at the Giants he had 19 Fantasy points with five field goals, and we expect the 49ers to have success moving the ball against the Raiders this week. Oakland has allowed eight kickers to make multiple field goals and six to score double digits in Fantasy points, including Greg Zuerlein last week. We expect Dawson to have one of his better games in this matchup.
Sleepers
Matt Prater (vs. TB): He has 20 Fantasy points in his last two home games.
Blair Walsh (vs. NYJ): NYJ have allowed 12 field goals in past six games.
Connor Barth (vs. BUF): He made five field goals in his first game with Denver.
Sit 'Em
Bryant has done a nice job kicking outdoors of late with four field goals and 13 Fantasy points in each of his past two games outside at Tampa Bay and at Carolina. He also has at least 13 Fantasy points in three of his past four games overall, so he's hot now heading into this matchup. But in his first five games outdoors he made just three field goals combined because the offense struggled, and this could be a tough week against the Packers. Green Bay has only allowed four kickers to make multiple field goals this season and two to reach double digits in Fantasy points. At home, the Packers have allowed just five field goals in six games. Bryant could stay hot this week, but I'd be surprised if he has another big game. I'd bench him on the road at Green Bay.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Start 'Em
The Lions DST rebounded from two poor games against Arizona and New England with 10 combined Fantasy points to score 13 points against Chicago in Week 13 with two interceptions, three sacks and just 17 points allowed. They have a great matchup this week against the Buccaneers, who have allowed 30 Fantasy points in the past two games against the Bears and Bengals with three interceptions, six sacks, two fumbles and only 26 points scored over that span. The Lions DST has scored at least 13 points in five of six home games, and this should be another quality performance against a Tampa Bay offense that is struggling of late.
Sleepers
Vikings (vs. NYJ): Will the Jets allow Geno Smith to throw this week?
Packers (vs. ATL): Green Bay has forced 11 turnovers from quarterbacks at home.
Broncos (vs. BUF): The Broncos have 10 sacks in their past three games.
Sit 'Em
The Bills lead the NFL in sacks and the DST is hot coming into this game with six games in a row with at least 11 Fantasy points, including 20-plus points in consecutive outings against the Jets and Browns. But you should expect a miserable performance this week against the Broncos, who are No. 2 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing DST units, behind only New England. Peyton Manning has been sacked multiple times just three times this season and has not been sacked more than twice in a game. He does have four games with multiple interceptions, but the Broncos have scored fewer than 20 points just once this season. The Bills DST has been a great unit in helping Fantasy owners advance this far, but don't use them in the first week of the playoffs against the Broncos.
Full Disclosure from Week 13
Ben Roethlisberger took me on a roller coaster of Fantasy emotions in Week 13 because he was horrendous for most of the game against New Orleans, but in the final three minutes he accounted for 16 Fantasy points with two touchdowns and two two-point conversions to finish with 29 points. He ended up as a great Start of the Week.
Our other positive start suggestions, including sleepers, were the No. 1 running back in Tre Mason, the No. 1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and the No. 1 tight end in Coby Fleener. We also said to start Matthew Stafford, Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings, Dan Herron, Lamar Miller, Brandon LaFell, Jordan Matthew, Kenny Stills and the Rams DST.
Our good sit calls included Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore and Trent Richardson, and we missed on starting Jeremy Hill, Tony Romo and Martavis Bryant, among others. I also failed in sitting Philip Rivers, DeSean Jackson and Martellus Bennett.
In my defense with Jackson, he was held to three catches for 33 yards before cornerback Vontae Davis (concussion) got hurt for the Colts. Five plays later, Jackson caught a 42-yard touchdown on Davis' side of the field. The results don't change, but I think I would have been right with Jackson had Davis been healthy.
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| Player | Fantasy Pts. (proj.) | Fantasy Pts. (actual) | Pos. rank | |
| Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers | 28 | 29 | 6 | |
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| Coby Fleener, TE, Colts | 10 | 24 | 1 | |
| Joique Bell, RB, Lions | 10 | 22 | 4 | |
| Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants | 14 | 21 | 5 | |
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| Frank Gore, RB, 49ers | 6 | 2 | 54 | |
| Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers | 15 | 1 | 34 | |
| Trent Richardson, RB, Colts | 7 | 1 | 66 | |
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| Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals | 15 | 5 | 34 | |
| Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys | 25 | 3 | 31 | |
| Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers | 11 | 2 | 87 | |
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| Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers | 15 | 32 | 5 | |
| DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins | 7 | 14 | 12 | |
| Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears | 6 | 10 | 3 | |
