Much has been made about Brock Purdy being Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft. He's been a star for the 49ers despite being picked No. 262 overall, and he's helped San Francisco reach Super Bowl LVIII in his sophomore campaign against Kansas City.
The Chiefs also have a star seventh-round pick from that same draft class in Isiah Pacheco, who was selected at No. 251 overall. And Pacheco is my favorite DFS play for the Super Bowl. He's $12,500 on FanDuel and $8,000 on DraftKings if you don't use him in the Captain spot.
Pacheco comes into this matchup with a touchdown in three postseason games in a row, and he has eight total touchdowns in his past seven games overall. In three of those outings he also has over 100 total yards, and he has at least three receptions in five of those contests.
The 49ers defense finished the regular season allowing the fourth-fewest Fantasy points to opposing running backs, but San Francisco has struggled to stop the run in the playoffs. Aaron Jones had a solid game against the 49ers in the Divisional Round with 18 carries for 108 yards, along with three catches for 8 yards on six targets. And both Lions running backs did well against San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
David Montgomery had 15 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown and two catches for 20 yards on two targets, and Jahmyr Gibbs finished with 12 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 11 yards on six targets. It should be a solid setup for Pacheco.
Even though the Chiefs are unlikely to have All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney (pectoral), Pacheco is still my favorite Fantasy option for Kansas City in the Super Bowl. He carried the offense at times this season when Patrick Mahomes and the passing game were struggling, and he could be the best player on Sunday against San Francisco.
Pacheco will be in plenty of my DFS lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings. And you can go to SportsLine to check out two lineups I'll be using for the Super Bowl -- those will be live on the SportsLine side later today.
Now, here are some of my favorite Super Bowl props for the Chiefs and 49ers using the odds on FanDuel as of Friday morning. You can also find my Super Bowl LVIII DFS lineup column at SportsLine.
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes under 1.5 passing touchdowns +114
Mahomes is amazing and the best quarterback in this game, but he hasn't been the superhero this season we've grown accustomed to watching. He comes into the Super Bowl with one game with multiple passing touchdowns in his past five outings and only twice in his past eight contests. Given the odds, this is one of my favorite props for this game.
Patrick Mahomes over 26.5 rushing yards -110
Mahomes has topped this number nine times this season, but only once in the playoffs and just twice in his past nine outings. However, Mahomes has rushed for at least 29 yards in all three of his Super Bowl appearances, and he's averaging 35.3 rushing yards in his Super Bowl career. Five quarterbacks this season ran for at least 27 yards against San Francisco but none in the playoffs.
Travis Kelce over 72.5 receiving yards -110
Kelce had a down season in 2023, but he returned to form in the playoffs. In his past two games against Baltimore and Buffalo, Kelce has at least 75 receiving yards in each outing, and he fell just short of this prop in the Wild Card round against Miami with 71 yards. Kelce also has at least 81 receiving yards in two of three Super Bowl games. Against San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV, Kelce was held to just 43 receiving yards, but I'll still take my chances on him hitting the over Sunday.
Travis Kelce under 6.5 receptions +122
I like this prop because of the odds, but I also expect Kelce to land on six catches in this matchup with the 49ers. He had six catches against San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV, and he also finished with six receptions in Super Bowl LVII last year against the Eagles. This season, Kelce has been at six catches or fewer in 11 of 18 games, including seven of his past nine outings overall through the AFC Championship Game.
Isiah Pacheco over 67.5 rushing yards -110
You know I like Pacheco a lot in the Super Bowl, and I expect him to go over this prop against the 49ers. He just had 68 rushing yards against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game and has gone over this prop for four games in a row. And two running backs in a row also had over 93 rushing yards against the 49ers in the playoffs with Aaron Jones and David Montgomery.
Isiah Pacheco over 16.5 receiving yards -110
Pacheco has been held to 14 receiving yards or less in all three playoff games, but I expect him to be a viable option in the passing game against San Francisco. He's gone over 17 receiving yards six times this season, and David Montgomery just had 20 receiving yards against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. Including the playoffs, 17 running backs have at least 17 receiving yards against San Francisco this season.
49ers
Brock Purdy under 246.5 passing yards -110
This is a low total, and Purdy has gone over this number in each of his two playoff games and five times in his past seven outings. But the Chiefs have held two of three playoff opponents (Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa) to fewer than 200 passing yards, with Lamar Jackson getting 272 yards in the AFC Championship Game. Including Jackson, only seven quarterbacks have passed for at least 247 yards against Kansas City this season.
Deebo Samuel under 4.5 receptions +100
The only reason I like this prop is because of the odds, and I expect Samuel to be used in a variety of ways where his receptions aren't the only way he'll impact the game. While some of it has been injury-related, he has 10 games this season with four catches or fewer, and Samuel only had five receptions in Super Bowl LIV against Kansas City.
Deebo Samuel over 16.5 rushing yards -110
As stated above, Samuel will impact the game as a rusher, which is a big part of this 49ers offense. He had three carries for 53 yards against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV, and he's run for at least 17 yards five times this season. Kyle Shanahan will hopefully have plenty of designed runs for Samuel in this game.
Brandon Aiyuk under 63.5 receiving yards -110
Aiyuk is most likely to see the most of Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, and that could be a problem for Aiyuk in this game. Aiyuk has been held to fewer than 63 yards in nine games this season, including six times away from San Francisco. I wouldn't expect a big game from Aiyuk if Sneed does shadow him in the Super Bowl.
George Kittle over 49.5 receiving yards -110
The Chiefs shut down Kittle in Super Bowl LIV with only four catches for 36 yards, but I expect him to get over 50 yards in this matchup. He's gone over that total 11 times this season, and I'm hopeful Kittle will get plenty of targets with the chance to break a couple of long runs. Only five tight ends have gone over 50 receiving yards against Kansas City this season, but I still like this prop for Kittle.
Christian McCaffrey over 33.5 receiving yards -110
I'm expecting McCaffrey, as usual, to have a big role in the passing game, and he should also go over his receptions prop of 4.5, although the odds aren't great (-122). He's had at least 34 receiving yards in eight games this season, including the NFC Championship Game against the Lions (four catches for 42 yards on five targets), and he should once again be a top target for Brock Purdy in this game.
