Fantasy Football Week 10 Quarterback Rankings: Expectations for Kyler Murray's return to action

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There really aren't any QB injury situations we're monitoring as of Sunday morning, with Kyler Murray cleared to return from his torn ACL. I'm being a bit cautious with my ranking of Murray, and I'm starting Jared Goff over him in at least one league for at least this week. We know Murray has top-12 potential, and the fact that his recovery time from the injury was relatively lengthy suggests he should be a bit further along than many other quarterbacks in their first game back from a torn ACL, but I'm just a bit worried about rust and a lack of running game usage early on.

The other situation worth watching today is with Joe Burrow's weapons. We already know he'll be down at least Tee Higgins (hamstring), and it sounds like even if Ja'Marr Chase (back) does play, he might be limited. Burrow did average 23.3 points in six-point-per-pass-TD leagues with Chase inactive over four games last season, though he did have Higgins available to step up as the top option. Can he do it again with maybe Tyler Boyd as his top option? I'm a bit more skeptical, so I'm ranking him as a low-end QB1 for this week. There's always upside with a great QB like Burrow, but there's a significant amount of risk this week, too.

Before we get to my updated rankings for Week 10, I've got some thoughts about Murray:

What should we expect if Kyler Murray returns?

He's kind of an unknown right now. He'll be playing in a new offense for the first time, so we don't exactly know how much of his previous tendencies will carry over. Plus, there's a big difference between being cleared to play and being yourself, and we don't know how long it's going to take for Murray to bridge that gap.

My assumption is that Murray will be an improvement on what the Cardinals have gotten from the QB position so far, but it's also worth noting that he isn't exactly landing in a great situation. The Cardinals offense doesn't have a ton of weapons, and Clayton Tune was just sacked seven times by the Ravens in Week 9. This is a team in rebuilding mode, and while they want to see what they have in Murray the rest of the way, they aren't necessarily super invested in him as the long-term answer.

On the other hand, Murray has averaged 20.2, 24.7, and 26.9 Fantasy points over the past three seasons, so we know how high the upside is when he's right. He's a no-doubt starter in Fantasy if he's right, but the problem is, a lot of that has historically been dependent on his rushing ability; Murray has averaged 6.3 points per game from his rushing in his career, and it's probably going to be hard for him to reach those levels as a runner coming back from the torn ACL.

Which is all to say, expectations for Murray's return should be lower than his previously established baseline, for at least this week. How much lower? Well, that's part of the unknown. Maybe they're more willing to let him run than expected and it's a small dropoff; or, maybe getting in a different offensive system that doesn't rely quite as much on short-area throws can unlock some of the upside Murray was supposed to have as a passer. There are paths to upside here, in other words.

For Week 10, I'm ranking Murray as my QB16. I'd rather go pick up Joshua Dobbs against the Saints – I expect similar passing production but more running from Dobbs than Murray in his first game back. Murray is a decent QB2 for this week, but I also expect him to get better as he gets more reps, especially as a runner.

Which is to say, while I'm not terribly excited about the prospect of starting Murray this week, I definitely want him on my roster, and I'm excited to see what he looks like. I'll be rooting for him to beat my expectations and look like the must-start QB we've seen in the past. If he does that, it might be all systems go in Week 11 against the Texans and through the rest of the season.

But a slow start wouldn't surprise me at all. I'm expecting it.