The majority of Fantasy Football drafts in the world are taking place over the next week. It's an exciting time as we get closer to the start of the regular season.
With that in mind, I wanted to give you my final preseason busts column for this year. I've written about a lot of busts already dating back to just before the NFL Draft, but this is the list of players I tend to avoid -- and you should as well.
Cost matters, and we're going to use the CBS Sports Average Draft Position data on Sept. 1 as our guide. But no matter these guys fall on Draft Day, they are the players who I expect to struggle with their production in 2023.
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Quarterbacks
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I don't want to call Mahomes a bust, afterall he is my No. 1 ranked quarterback this season. But in a one-quarterback league, he should not be drafted in Round 1, and unfortunately his CBS Sports ADP has him at No. 8 overall. I also don't like the value of other quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson (No. 26 overall), Joe Burrow (No. 29) and Justin Herbert (No. 38), even though I love them as players. I understand these quarterbacks are safe and beyond proven, but I still don't want to draft them this early in a one-quarterback league. You're passing on some high-end running back and wide receiver talent, and I'd rather draft Saquon Barkley, Stefon Diggs and Tony Pollard ahead of Mahomes in Round 1. If this is where you have to draft a top-tier quarterback then I'm just going to wait for guys like Anthony Richardson and Tua Tagovailoa instead.
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I don't mind Rodgers with a late-round pick this year as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. But based on the CBS Sports ADP, you're not getting him late since he's QB11 at 88.0. I'm hopeful Rodgers, 39, can turn back the clock and play like the MVP he was in 2020 and 2021, when he averaged at least 25.4 Fantasy points per game in each of those seasons. But he was awful last year in his final season with the Packers at 17.1 Fantasy points per game, and he might be washed up. He has a quality receiving corps with the Jets, which is led by sophomore standout Garrett Wilson, and Rodgers is thrilled to be reunited with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. But his offensive line has question marks, and the Jets have one of the worst schedules in the NFL (they open with Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Kansas City, Denver and Philadelphia in their first six games). If you want to draft Rodgers as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, that's your decision, but he should not be selected in Round 8.
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Running backs
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I've been wrong enough times about Henry being a bust that I'll caution you might want to do the opposite of what I'm saying here. And I don't mind drafting Henry at all toward the end of Round 2. But he's being drafted as the No. 13 overall player in PPR on CBS Sports, and I can't sign off on that. We all know Father Time is undefeated, and at some point even the stars start to slow down. He turned 29 in January, and that's not good for a running back. While he bounced back from the foot injury he sustained in 2021 that limited him to eight games -- he played 16 games in 2022 -- he has a lot of mileage on his massive frame with over 380 total touches in two of the past three seasons. The Titans offensive line is going through a makeover this year, but Pro Football Focus still ranks the unit last coming into the season. Henry has been amazing when healthy over the past four seasons, averaging more than 18.1 PPR points per game every year since 2019, but I'm concerned he's reached the end of his run as an elite Fantasy option. I don't plan on buying a lot of stock in Henry this year.
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I'll be curious to see where Taylor's ADP is Monday after a long weekend of drafts, but on Friday he's still the No. 36 overall player on CBS Sports as RB15. At this point, I can't suggest drafting him in the first six rounds, no matter the format. He's already scheduled to miss four games after being placed on the PUP list with an injured ankle. And then we don't know if he'll be motivated to play after his contract dispute with the Colts. There's also the further risk of injury, and the Colts aren't going to be a good team. I was willing to overlook some of the warts around Taylor's situation in Indianapolis because he's an elite talent, but we might not see that talent on display for much of the season. At best, you should be drafting Taylor as a lottery ticket, but the earliest that should happen is Round 7.
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Harris still has a CBS Sports ADP in Round 3 at 35.4 as RB14, and I can't sign off on drafting him that early. Everyone who has paid attention to the Steelers in training camp and the preseason can see Jaylen Warren has looked great and is an obvious threat to Harris' job. We don't typically see Mike Tomlin lean on multiple running backs, but that should change this season. Harris struggled last year at 13.1 PPR points per game compared to his rookie campaign at 17.7, but he wasn't as awful as you think. After a slow start, which was partly due to a foot injury, Harris closed 2022 by averaging 16.1 PPR points per game in his final four outings. I'd be fine drafting Harris in Round 5, and he should still outproduce Warren if both are healthy. But you shouldn't be reaching for Harris on Draft Day heading into 2023.
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We're starting to see Hall's ADP slide, and he's at 54.4 on CBS Sports now as RB20, which isn't bad. But I'm still concerned this is going to be a frustrating season for him and the Fantasy managers who draft him. Dalvin Cook wasn't brought in as an insurance policy, he's going to have a prominent role. To what extent we'll find out, and that might depend on how healthy Hall is all season. The recent history of running backs coming back from a torn ACL in the first year isn't good (see Cook, Saquon Barkley and J.K. Dobbins to name a few). And Hall has to deal with the Jets brutal schedule, just like Rodgers. So what we have here is a running back with health concerns, in a timeshare and playing tough opponents. I'd rather draft guys going after Hall based on the CBS Sports ADP like J.K. Dobbins and Miles Sanders, and I'm generally going to avoid Hall in most leagues this year.
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Pacheco should be the lead running back for the Chiefs, but I don't want to draft him in Round 6 with an ADP of 71.2 in PPR as RB28. He's expected to share touches with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon, and Pacheco might end up as a trap back. McKinnon will definitely have a role in the passing game, and that's where Pacheco is likely at a huge disadvantage. He did have five catches for 59 yards on six targets in the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals, but otherwise he had 14 catches for 136 yards on 15 targets for the rest of the season. And he only scored six total touchdowns, including the playoffs, and no running back has more than seven rushing touchdowns while playing alongside Patrick Mahomes during his tenure with the Chiefs. So if Pacheco is struggling for touchdowns and not catching the ball, we're looking at a running back you likely want to avoid at this point in the draft.
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Wide receivers
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Like Taylor, I'm curious to see where Kupp's ADP settles after this weekend, but you can't draft him in Round 1 anymore now that he's dealing with a setback from the hamstring injury he suffered in training camp. I have him at No. 20 overall in Round 2, and that might be too soon. He's 30 now, and the track record for receivers at that age isn't great. He's also coming off an injury-marred 2022 when he missed eight games due to an ankle injury. Soft-tissue injuries can linger all season, and we also have to remember that Matthew Stafford is 35 with potential concerns about his back. It might just be a good idea to pass on Kupp in Round 2 and let someone else deal with the potential headache. Just realize that for the past two seasons he's averaged 25.9 and 22.4 PPR points per game as the best Fantasy receiver, so if he's healthy he could still be a star.
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Adams' ADP on CBS Sports actually isn't bad at 18.3, but I don't love him as WR7 ahead of guys like CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Adams is an amazing talent, and he should be able to remain successful this season to a high degree. But his age, along with the situation in Las Vegas, might be too much to keep him at an elite status. Jimmy Garoppolo should be a downgrade for Adams compared to Derek Carr. Adams is also 30 now, and receivers at his age haven't fared well of late. In the past 10 years, only 17 receivers at 30 or older have averaged at least 15.0 PPR points per game. And only three over that span -- Brandon Marshall in 2015 at age 31 (21.2 PPR points per game), Jordy Nelson in 2016 at 31 (19.0) and Antonio Brown in 2018 at 30 (21.6) -- produced at the level Adams did in 2022 at 19.4 PPR points per game. I don't mind drafting Adams in Round 2, but he should not be drafted ahead of Lamb, Wilson or St. Brown.
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I don't mind taking a flier on McLaurin as a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver, and his CBS Sports ADP at 73.7 as WR27 isn't awful. But I'm concerned the toe injury he suffered in the preseason is going to linger for a while, and now you have to be concerned about his health. He also might not be the No. 1 receiver in Washington any more with the emergence of Jahan Dotson, who will likely impact McLaurin's overall production. While McLaurin is an excellent talent and has been a serviceable Fantasy receiver, it feels like we overvalue him a little, especially since he averaged just 13.0 PPR points per game over the past two years. He's also scored five touchdowns or less in each of the past three seasons. At this point, you shouldn't be drafting McLaurin as a starter in any leagues, and I consider him more of a low-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver because of his toe injury.
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Before the preseason started, I was touting Jeudy as a breakout candidate. I loved the way he finished 2022 when he averaged 19.4 PPR points per game over his final five outings, and I was expecting him to build off that performance with Sean Payton as the new head coach in Denver. That could still happen, but Jeudy's hamstring injury crushed the positive vibes I had about him for 2023. This could be something that lingers all year, and I don't want to get burned by Jeudy again. The good news is he avoided being placed on injured reserve, which means he's expected back prior to Week 4. But you don't want Jeudy to rush back too soon and hurt himself again. His CBS Sports ADP is 76.7 as WR29, but that's too soon for me to draft him given his injury.
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Tight ends
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I'm concerned about Kittle's production this season because there are a lot of mouths to feed in San Francisco, and Kittle definitely suffered last season when everyone was healthy in the games started by Brock Purdy. The two had a great connection, and Kittle scored seven touchdowns in the eight healthy games he played with Purdy. To put that in perspective, Kittle never scored more than six touchdowns in a season in the first five years of his career. He also averaged 14.3 PPR points per game with Purdy. But there's a tale of two game logs when it comes to Kittle and Purdy, and it involves Deebo Samuel, who missed three of those eight games. In those three games without Samuel, Kittle had 21 targets for 14 catches, 236 yards and five touchdowns. In the other five games with Samuel healthy, Kittle had 21 targets for 17 catches, 211 yards and two touchdowns. I'm still drafting Kittle as a top-10 tight end, but I don't want him at his current CBS Sports ADP of 51.0 as TE3.
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Which version of Engram is going to show up this season? Is it the one who had a monster four-game stretch last year, or the one who struggled for most of 2023? It was great to see Engram bounce back with Jacksonville last year when he averaged 10.4 PPR points per game, which was his best production since 2019 with the Giants. And from Weeks 13-16, Engram looked like the best tight end in the NFL, averaging 21.4 PPR points per game over that four-game span. But in his first 11 games of the year, Engram wasn't great, averaging just 7.3 PPR points per game. Now, the Engram supporters will argue that Trevor Lawrence's best stretch of the season came with Engram lending a big hand. That's true, and Doug Pederson has done a great job with tight ends in his career. But now Engram has to contend with a revamped receiving corps, which added Calvin Ridley to Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, and Engram's target share should decline. I like Engram as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this season, but he's being drafted too soon at his current CBS Sports ADP of 83.3 as TE8. I would prefer to draft Engram a little later, and I'm concerned his production could suffer this season.
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