I don't ever know for sure what kind of responses I'm going to get when I put out the call for Dynasty Fantasy Football questions on Twitter. This time of year, however, it's a pretty good bet there will be questions about rookies. And this time in particular there were. bunch of questions about the same guy, or the same pick, Bijan Robinson at 1.01.
There aren't many questions at all about who should go No. 1, just about how aggressive people should be in going after him. And to be honest, I have those same questions in a couple of my own leagues. So let's start with an extended breakdown of what I would give for Robinson.
Overpaying for Bijan
10 team ppr superflex. I have picks 2, 4, 6, 10 and 12 in the rookie draft. As well as two 1s next year (likely 2 mid firsts) . Is it worth packaging some of this to move up to 1 for Bijon or just hold my water and get 5 quality players . pic.twitter.com/1rdzqEni5C— League of 10 (@ChubbyThunder13) February 28, 2023
I currently have the 2nd and 3rd overall picks in my upcoming draft. I plan on taking at least 1 of Stroud or young in the draft. Do you think it’s worth to trade up to the first pick to get bijan to pair him up with one of those QBs? Or should I take another back at 3— Mike Oxofloppin (@MikeOxofloppin) February 27, 2023
12 Team, 1QB, .5 PPR - Finished 2nd in 2022— Greg Harrell (@DynastyGMan) February 27, 2023
What sort of packages would you be willing to give in picks to move up to 1.1? Would you just stay put and take Gibbs and best WR at 1.2+1.3 assuming 1.2 would be in the deal?
Bench is full of guys to cut except Dak, Dulcich and Kmet. pic.twitter.com/E80uVePnwK
Be honest should I have done this trade?— The Wang in the North (@UpperKuntII) February 27, 2023
I got the 1st overall pick
The 9th pick in the 2nd round
24 1st pic.twitter.com/qqbnabae5u
First, you can see Robinson's value according to me in a one-quarterback league right here. And if anything, I may be lower than the consensus that seems to be he's already RB1 overall. I can see the argument for that, and I have no real problem with valuing Robinson as the third-best player in Dynasty leagues, behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. But let's deal with some of the above questions to get more specific...
I actually have CeeDee Lamb ahead of Robinson by himself, so I don't love that trade at all. While Robinson is younger, I actually believe Lamb should be a productive player for longer, and I definitely expect him to be more impactful in 2023. The question above that is more interesting.
If I had finished second last year, I'd be far more interested in adding a back that could make all the difference. I would be thrilled to give up 1.03 and 1.11, I'd probably even throw a second-round pick in the deal. If you had to give up 1.02, I'd probably try to get by with adding two second-round picks, but could be talked into 1.02 and 1.11 for Robinson.
The guy above that question is in a Superflex league. For now, I pretty strongly prefer Bryce Young to C.J. Stroud, but I would absolutely be trying to trade that third pick to get Robinson as well. I would be less excited about trading 1.02 and another first for Robinson in Superflex because I do believe Young has the potential to provide a big edge for a long time in that format.
As for the top question, in 10-team leagues I more aggressively pursue elite players. I would give up 1.02 and 1.10 and a second for Robinson. I would rather give up 1.04 and 1.06 and a second.
To sum it up, go get Bijan Robinson if you can. It's going to cost you a lot in Dynasty, and if the landing spot is right it may cost you a first-round pick in redraft as well.
Current sleepers, future breakouts
Which player that is under the radar currently could you see being a breakout in the near future at their position— Fantasy Island (@FantasyIslandff) February 27, 2023
This is a great question and one I should probably answer at least once per year. Let's go with one at each position.
Sam Howell is in a very interesting situation. He has an elite wide receiver duo in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. He has rushing ability, as evidenced by his 828 yards and 11 scores on the ground for North Carolina in 2021. And he now has one of the most successful offensive coordinators of the last half decade in Eric Bieniemy. If everything goes right, Howell could go from an afterthought to borderline top-12 this season.
Running back is more difficult because most guys under the radar are an injury away. But I don't believe James Cook is getting enough love. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry as a rookie and the Bills have already talked about increasing his role from 2022. Devin Singletary is a free agent, so that should help. Cook was a Round 1 rookie pick you may be able to acquire for an early second-round rookie pick right now. I wouldn't be that surprised if he's better than Isiah Pacheco, Brian Robinson, and Tyler Allgeier next year.
Josh Palmer is my favorite sleeper/breakout at wide receiver. If Keenan Allen gets released, Palmer could be looking at 125 targets in 2023. He showed flashes at times last year and is entering his third year in the NFL, a common breakout season for wide receivers. He topped 13 Fantasy points in six games last year, he may double that number this year if Allen is gone.
As for tight end, I'm buying several of the second-year tight ends, but especially Greg Dulcich, Trey McBride, and Cade Otton. I like Chigziem Okonkwo a lot as well, but he seems to have already been priced out everywhere I look for him.
Stefon Diggs' window
When do I get off the Stefon Diggs train I’ve been on for years?— Stephen Skywalker (@Famos21) February 28, 2023
This is a good question, and it's the right time in Diggs' career to be asking the question. He will turn 30 years old during the 2023 season. Recent history has been mixed with receivers this age. Davante Adams is about a year older than Diggs and has continued to be awesome. Guys like A.J. Green and Allen Robinson seemingly hit a wall. And you should view Diggs through both lenses.
If you're a contender, the risk of losing Diggs' value to an ACL or Father Time is worth the risk of potentially winning a championship this year or next. He's probably past the point you'll get much more than a mid-2023 1st for him, and that's simply not worth sacrificing your window for.
On the flip side, if you're rebuilding, there's no question you should deal Diggs. The likelihood that he falls off in the next year or two is too great to hold onto him through a rebuild.
The difficult choice is if you're in the dreaded middle. While I know I say this a lot, it's the worst place to be. Just don't think you have to get out of the middle in the offseason. If you truly don't know if you're a contender or not, I'd plan on holding Diggs for at least a month to find out. Hopefully, your team (or injury luck) will make that clear.
Selling D'Andre Swift
I have Jonathon Taylor, Kenneth Walker and Deandre Swift as my main RBs. With the uncertainty surrounding Swift and his actual role in Detroit is it worth selling him for a mixture of picks and WR depth? pic.twitter.com/kdtiUp7SQk— Jacob McCandles (@TweetRose13) February 28, 2023
While a lot of Dynasty trade questions are as clear as the one above, D'Andre Swift is not. He is a player with elite talent and youth on his side. He's also a player with a questionable role and spotty injury history. If you have Jonathan Taylor and Kenneth Walker, it's completely understandable you'd be considering trading Swift. I just don't really like the idea of trading him for a package. That's because I don't really like trading away the best player in a deal.
I would be more interested in trying to turn Swift and something into a top-10 wide receiver. Or see if I can leverage him into an elite quarterback. If you'd going to accept a package then shoot for TE1 Mark Andrews and something else. if you can't make your team immediately better by trading him, then I'd bet on the talent winning over and hold him as possibly the best flex in the league.
Valuing Kyle Pitts
What to do with Kyle Pitts? If sell, what would you sell him for?— Drew 🃏 (@DrewCwilber) February 28, 2023
I would not be looking to sell Kyle Pitts. I still believe in the talent, he'll still be just 22 years old at the start of the season, his situation is unlikely to get worse, and his price has never been lower. If anything, I would be looking to buy Kyle Pitts. And if you have him, the only move is to plan on starting Kyle Pitts.
But if you did want to sell, I would be looking for a veteran that helped me win right now. If I had a true contender, I would take Travis Kelce or Davante Adams or Nick Chubb in a heartbeat. If I was rebuilding, I would be even more inclined to hold, but would accept a top-three pick in this year's rookie draft...but that's about it.