Super Bowl weekend is here, so let's have some fun with player props. Our staff has been writing about them all week -- and they saved the best for last. I'm kidding. Sort of.
I get to do a lot of player props during the season on CBS Sports HQ for our Monday night, Thursday night and Sunday night preview shows, and they are always a lot of fun. And I was lucky enough to have a successful season on my player props, so let's keep it going one final time for Super Bowl LVII.
Here are my five favorite over and five favorite under player props from Caesars Sportsbook for the Chiefs and Eagles.
Five Over Props
Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+159)
I'll trust the MVP with this prop even though the Eagles pass defense has been impressive all season. Dak Prescott in Week 16 is the lone quarterback with three passing touchdowns against the Eagles, including the playoffs. Mahomes has eight games this season with at least three passing touchdowns but none in the postseason. That said, if the Chiefs are going to win this game it will likely come with Mahomes being magical once again. And he always benefits from those shovel passes near the goal line, which could lead to him cashing this prop, which is heavily juiced in our favor.
Patrick Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards (-119)
Mahomes has only rushed for 16 yards in the playoffs, but we know he injured his ankle in the divisional round against Jacksonville and then played through the injury against Cincinnati. With two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl, he should be close to 100 percent, and he has practiced all week. He has 10 games this season with more than 20 rushing yards, most recently in Week 18 against the Raiders before he got hurt. The Eagles pass rush should make him escape the pocket multiple times, and I expect him to go over this total rather easily if his ankle isn't an issue.
Jalen Hurts over 0.5 interceptions (+104)
I'm always in favor of this prop whenever it's juiced in our favor, which is the case here. The reason for that is Hurts has been fantastic at limiting interceptions with only six all season, including the playoffs. But you always get the chance for a tipped ball or something fluky to happen, and we could see Hurts forcing the ball down the field if the Eagles are chasing points. Kansas City only had 11 interceptions during the season, but the Chiefs have now intercepted a pass in five games in a row going back to Week 16. Over that span, Kansas City has an interception against Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, Jarrett Stidham, Trevor Lawrence in the divisional round and Joe Burrow in the AFC Championship Game. Let's see if the Chiefs can make it six games in a row with an interception against Hurts in this game.
Kenneth Gainwell over 19.5 rushing yards (-115)
The two blowouts in the playoffs against the Giants in the divisional round and the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game have mattered to Gainwell, who has seen his playing time spike in those outings. He played 37 percent of the snaps against the Giants and 42 percent of the snaps against the 49ers, and he ran for at least 48 yards in each game. He also had 35 rushing yards against the Giants in Week 18, and we'll see if Gainwell can get over 20 yards for the fourth game in a row in the Super Bowl. I like his chances for two reasons. The coaching staff is seemingly trusting him more in tandem with Miles Sanders. And if the Eagles are up or down big in this game, we could see his playing time again at a high level like the past two weeks. He's also averaged more than 7.0 yards per carry in two of his past three games so he could get over this total against the Chiefs on minimal attempts.
Isiah Pacheco over 15.5 receiving yards (-121)
We'll see what the Chiefs decide to do with Clyde Edwards-Helaire now that he's eligible to play for the first time since Week 11 after being out with an injured ankle, but Pacheco should remain the lead running back ahead of Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. Pacheco did well against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game when he played his highest percentage of snaps at 59 percent. He also had a season-high in targets (six), catches (five) and receiving yards (59), and I expect that work in the passing game to carry over against the Eagles. He's earned the trust of his coaches and Mahomes at the right time, and he could be a significant factor in the Super Bowl. Pacheco is my dark horse candidate to be Super Bowl MVP, and maybe he'll get the award Damien Williams should have won in Super Bowl LIV.
Five Under Props
Jalen Hurts under 239.5 passing yards (-117)
For the season, including the playoffs, Hurts has been over this total just seven times. And the last time he did it was Week 15 at Chicago in the game where he hurt his shoulder. Since then, in three games against the Giants twice and San Francisco, Hurts is averaging just 168 passing yards per game. The blowout victories in the playoffs have likely contributed to his low passing yards, but you also have to wonder how healthy he is, even with two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl. I'm not expecting the Chiefs to shut down Hurts in this matchup, but I'll still play the under on his passing yards based on his recent level of play.
Jerick McKinnon under 19.5 rushing yards (-119)
McKinnon only has eight games over this total all season and just once in his past five outings, including the playoffs. With Edwards-Helaire now back, McKinnon's carries might be non-existent, and he only had four carries in the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals while just sharing with Pacheco. I'm not sure why McKinnon hasn't gotten touches lately, but the under should be in play here given his recent body of work.
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Jerick McKinnon under 20.5 receiving yards (+100)
I'll stick with another under here for McKinnon, and again, I don't know why he's gotten phased out in the passing game. In two playoff games against the Bengals and Jaguars, McKinnon has combined for just two catches for 17 yards on four targets. He entered the playoffs having caught a touchdown in six games in a row, and he had at least six targets and five catches in three of those outings. We'll see if the Chiefs go back to him in the Super Bowl, but I'm shying away from McKinnon given his recent lackluster performances in the postseason.
Travis Kelce under 6.5 receptions (+133)
The only reason to play this is because the odds are juiced in our favor. Kelce has 21 receptions in two playoff games alone on 25 targets, and he caught at least seven passes in a game nine times this season, including the playoffs. That said, the Eagles have been great against tight ends all year. Only converted receiver Lawrence Cager for the Giants in Week 18 had more than five catches against Philadelphia, including matchups with T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, Zach Ertz, Pat Freiermuth, Dalton Schultz and George Kittle. None of those guys are Kelce, but if the Eagles hold him to six catches or less then you could cash on this prop in a big way.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling under 2.5 receptions (-113)
Valdes-Scantling was a star for the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals with six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown on eight targets, but he did that with Kadarius Toney, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman all injured. Toney and Smith-Schuster are healthy for the Super Bowl, and Valdes-Scantling will have to deal with Philadelphia cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the perimeter. Valdes-Scantling also has nine games this season with two catches or less, including the playoffs.