Super Bowl LVII - Kansas City Chiefs v Philadelphia Eagles
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There were some questions about how Patrick Mahomes would do after losing Tyreek Hill last offseason, and he responded by leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns en route to a second Super Bowl championship. As long as Mahomes is here and healthy, this is going to be one of the best offenses in football, though that doesn't mean there aren't any questions for Fantasy. 

2023 review

Record: 14-3 (1)
PPG: 29.2 (1)
YPG: 413.6 (1)
Pass YPG: 297.8 (1)
Rush YPG: 115.9 (20)
PAPG: 38.3 (5)
RAPG: 24.5 (25)

2022 Fantasy finishes

QB: Patrick Mahomes QB1
RB: Jerick McKinnon RB20, Isiah Pacheco RB37, Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB46
WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster* WR27, Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR54
TE: Travis Kelce TE1
*No longer with team

Number to know: 0

That's how many top-12 finishes Isiah Pacheco had last season at the running back position. He became the starter in Week 7, Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn't play more than 27% of the snaps in any of the next four games before his season-ending injury, so it's not like it was a particularly crowded backfield. And yet, Pacheco still managed just four games as even a top-20 RB in his 11 starts, and didn't even reach 14 PPR points in any of the three playoff games, either. As RB28 in ADP, Pacheco isn't priced at the point where it's hard to justify him, but I just don't see any point in chasing a situation that seems to have so little upside. The Chiefs are the least run-heavy team in the league, and as long as Mahomes is here, that probably won't change, so unless Pacheco starts to carve out a passing game role (he had two games with more than two receptions), I just don't see any kind of path to even mid-range RB2 upside here. 

2023 offseason

Draft picks 

1. (31) Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE
2. (55) Rashee Rice, WR
3. (92) Wanya Morris, OL
4. (119) Chamarri Conner, DB
5. (166) BJ Thompson, DE
6. (194) Keondre Coburn, DT

7. (250) Nic Jones, CB, OL

Additions

OL Jawaan Taylor, DE Charles Omenihu, LB Drue Tranquill, S Mike Edwards, OL Donovan Smith

Key departures

OL Orlando Brown, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, OL Andrew Wylie, S Juan Thornhill, DE Frank Clark, DL, Khalen Saunders, WR Mecole Hardman, DE Carlos Dunlap

Available opportunity 

22 RB carries, 4 RB targets, 169 WR targets, 2 TE targets 

Rankings and projections

Award
player headshot
Jamey Eisenberg
player headshot
Dave Richard
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Heath Cummings
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Chris Towers
Patrick Mahomes1111
Isiah Pacheco29283432
Jerick McKinnon55433443
Clyde Edwards-Helaire605854NR
Kadarius Toney51404142
Skyy Moore45425343
Travis Kelce1111

Chris Towers' projections

QBPatrick MahomesPA: 624, YD: 4801, TD: 37, INT: 11; RUSH -- ATT: 64, YD: 320, TD: 2
RBIsiah PachecoCAR: 214, YD: 961, TD: 8; TAR: 31, REC: 23, YD: 175, TD: 1
RBJerick McKinnonCAR: 64, YD: 269, TD: 2; TAR: 62, REC: 47, YD: 398, TD: 3
RBClyde Edwards-HelaireCAR: 85, YD: 376, TD: 3; TAR: 19, REC: 15, YD: 135, TD: 1
WRKadarius ToneyTAR: 112, REC: 73, YD: 802, TD: 6
WRSkyy MooreTAR: 94, REC: 60, YD: 710, TD: 5
WRMarquez Valdes-ScantlingTAR: 100, REC: 55, YD: 713, TD: 5
WRRashee RiceTAR: 56, REC: 34, YD: 370, TD: 3
TETravis KelceTAR: 150, REC: 105, YD: 1257, TD: 9

Biggest question

Do any of the wide receivers here matter? 

Because it's a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, there's always going to be interest in the passing game options here. However, JuJu Smith-Schuster was just WR33 last season, and no other player even reached 700 receiving yards besides Travis Kelce. There will definitely be stretches where Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Rashee Rice put up solid numbers, but I'm skeptical anyone of them is going to be a consistent Fantasy contributor as a starting option.

One sleeper, one breakout and one bust

Sleeper
KC Kansas City • #24
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.
2022 Stats
REC
22
TAR
33
REYDS
250
TD
0
FPTS/G
2.7

Moore was largely a non-factor in his rookie season, as he played more than half the snaps just once in 19 games, so we still have too look back at his prospect profile to make most of the case for him. He won't turn 23 until a couple of weeks into the season, and was the 22nd pick of last year's second round, coming off a career in college where he dominated at Western Michigan, including 95 catches for 1,292 yards and 10 touchdowns in an offense that produced just 3,297 passing yards and 23 touchdowns in 2021. He has a good athletic profile in addition to the production, and now he figures to have an opportunity to carve out a bigger role after his rookie season. He's a bit of a long-shot to break out after that rookie season, but with an ADP of just 132.96, it's an easy bet to make. 

An even easier bet? Rookie second-rounder Rashee Rice out of SMU, who comes off the board at 187.39, on average. That's deeper than most leagues run, but I don't mind taking a very late flier just to see if Rice pops early. He doesn't have much less of a track record than either Moore or Toney. 

Breakout
KC Kansas City • #19
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
2022 Stats
REC
16
TAR
20
REYDS
171
TD
3
FPTS/G
6.4

Toney gets the bigger headline slot here, but I've got him and Moore ranked back-to-back for a reason: I think it's a coin flip which will emerge as a useful fantasy option here, if either does, something I don't think is actually a given. But Toney gets a bit more of the benefit of the doubt because we have seen him look like an actual difference maker in the NFL before -- for basically one three-game stretch. And even that is kind of a stretch. He had six catches for 78 yards in Week 4 of the 2021 season, following that up with 10 catches for 189 yards in basically a half of football the following game (he was kicked out of the game in the third quarter), and then had three catches for 36 yards on just six snaps before leaving his next game with an injury. Other than that, Toney has just one game with more than 60 yards in an NFL game, so there really isn't much to go on. But he really looked like a potential star in that stretch, which is more than we can say for Moore at this point. 

Bust
KC Kansas City • #19
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
2022 Stats
REC
16
TAR
20
REYDS
171
TD
3
FPTS/G
6.4

Of course, Toney is also two years older than Moore and has already had one NFL team decide to give up on him, which is a trading him for a third-round pick just a year after he was a first-rounder despite being desperate for playmakers in the passing game. There are questions about whether either Toney or Moore will be able to break out in this offense, and Moore also has pretty significant injury question marks here, including multiple hamstring injuries that have now derailed each of his first two seasons. The Chiefs showed a willingness to use Toney in the running game and as a gadget player near the end zone last season, which was a good sign; the fact that that's basically all they trusted him to do, not so much. But the biggest argument against drafting Toney this season is a simple one: He's going off the board nearly 50 picks earlier than Moore. If you're going to bet on one of them, it's pretty obvious which one makes more sense.