The No. 20 UCF Knights will try to maintain their position as the highest-ranked Group of Five team when they face the Navy Midshipmen on Saturday. UCF took over that spot with a 38-31 win at then-No. 17 Tulane last week, taking over first place in the American Athletic Conference as well. Navy played one of its best games of the season last week, nearly pulling off a huge upset in a 35-32 loss to then-No. 20 Notre Dame.
Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. ET. The Knights are currently listed as 15.5-point favorites in the latest UCF vs. Navy odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 53. Before entering any Navy vs. UCF picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- UCF vs. Navy spread: UCF -15.5
- UCF vs. Navy over/under: 53 points
- UCF vs. Navy money line: UCF -800, Navy +550
- UCF vs. Navy picks: See picks here
Why UCF can cover
Navy has now lost four of its last five games and has been officially eliminated from bowl season. The Midshipmen also have their annual showdown against Army on deck, so they could be lacking some motivation for this particular game. UCF is going to be in a completely different mindset, as it now has a chance to win the conference and appear in a New Year's Six bowl game this year. The Knights are riding a three-game winning streak and have won seven of their last eight games, including last week's victory at Tulane.
Starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee returned after missing the previous game due to injury, rushing for 176 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries, along with throwing for 132 yards and a score. UCF has had no problem winning by this type of margin, with five of its victories coming by 17-plus points. The Knights have gone 12-1 in their last 13 home games and have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
Why Navy can cover
Navy might have lost four of its last five games, but all four of those setbacks came against quality opponents. The Midshipmen covered the spread in three of those four losses, so they are still undervalued right now. They took Notre Dame down to the wire last week, losing by three points as 17-point underdogs.
Sophomore fullback Daba Fofana continues to put up big numbers, rushing for 133 yards and a touchdown against the Fighting Irish. Navy's strong rushing attack makes it difficult for opponents to blow the Midshipmen out, which is why they have covered the spread in six of their last eight games. They have also covered the spread in five straight road games, pointing to some potential value in this spot.
How to make UCF vs. Navy picks
The model has simulated Navy vs. UCF 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in more than 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins UCF vs. Navy? And which side of the spread hits in more than 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Navy vs. UCF spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.