The San Diego State Aztecs seek their second conference road victory of the 2022 college football season Friday night when they travel to meet the struggling New Mexico Lobos in a nationally showcased contest. The Aztecs (6-4, 4-2) have won four of their last five and can keep their hopes alive for a berth in the Mountain West title game with another victory Friday. But they have faltered on the road against Boise State and Fresno State, and their lone conference victory away from home came against downtrodden Nevada. New Mexico (2-8, 0-6) is hoping to break a seven-game winless streak by pulling the massive upset on its home turf.
Kickoff is set for 9:45 p.m. ET from University Stadium in Albuquerque. The Aztecs are 14.5-point favorites and the over/under for total points scored is 39.5 in the latest San Diego State vs. New Mexico odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before locking in any New Mexico vs. San Diego State picks, make sure you check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of nearly $3,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now, the model has locked in on San Diego State vs. New Mexico and just released its college football picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for San Diego State vs. New Mexico:
- San Diego State vs. New Mexico point spread: San Diego State -14.5
- San Diego State vs. New Mexico over/under: 36
- San Diego State vs. New Mexico money line: San Diego State -650, New Mexico +460
- SDSU: The Aztecs are 8-3 against the spread in their last road 11 games against losing teams
- UNM: The Lobos are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series
- San Diego State vs. New Mexico picks: See picks here
Why San Diego State can cover
San Diego State's comeback from a 14-point deficit last week against San Jose was sparked by a 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown from Jordan Byrd. It was the third return touchdown of Byrd's career and emblematic of a special teams unit that continues to rank among the best in the country. According to ESPN, San Diego State's efficiency rating on special teams is 79.6, second in the country only to South Carolina at 80.6.
Byrd became the first FBS player with at least one rushing touchdown, receiving touchdown, kick return touchdown and punt return touchdown in the same season since Temple's Isaiah Wright accomplished the feat in 2018 and just the second Aztec to reach those milestones. Rashaad Penny did the same in 2017. No other Mountain West player has accomplished this since the conference was formed in 1999. Byrd is also the club's rushing leader with 364 yards on 76 attempts with three touchdowns. The senior also has six receptions for 51 yards and another score.
Why New Mexico can cover
There are numerous circumstantial details that suggest the Lobos could keep Friday's game competitive and perhaps even pull off the outright upset. For one, their two victories at season have both come at home and they have been respectable at home in conference play. They led Wyoming 14-7 at the half and trailed Fresno State just 13-6 before games slipped away in the second half. Overall, the Lobos have led at halftime in three of their six MWC contests.
What's more, this is the final home game for a 12-player senior class. Coach Danny Gonzales told the media this week that he is hoping for an effort that will send the seniors out on a memorable note and help propel the program forward in a positive fashion.
A case also can be made that this is a natural letdown spot for the Aztecs following their comeback from a 14-point deficit against San Jose State last week. The conditions also could be an uncomfortable change for a club that spent the week practicing in the 70-degree weather of San Diego. The forecast is for near-freezing temperatures by kickoff in Las Cruces.
How to make San Diego State vs. New Mexico picks
The model has simulated San Diego State vs. New Mexico 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Under on the point total, projecting 36 total points scored. It's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins San Diego State vs. New Mexico? And which side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.