Orange Bowl: No. 13 Florida State (11-2) vs. No. 16 Northern Illinois (12-1)

Kickoff: Tuesday, Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Sun Life Stadium in Miami (grass)

Spread: Florida State by 13.5

Watchability: Many will tune in to see if the underdog, Northern Illinois, can compete with Florida State. The Huskies have won 12 games in a row, becoming the first team from the MAC to ever earn a spot in a BCS bowl, and Florida State returns to a BCS game for the first time since after the 2005 season. Both teams are dealing with staff turnover. Northern Illinois coach Dave Doeren left for the same job at NC State, coincidentally a division rival of the Seminoles. Northern Illinois named Rod Carey, who served as offensive coordinator this year, as Doeren’s successor. Florida State defensive coordinator Mark Stoops left for the head coaching job at Kentucky.

Shining stars: Florida State -- QB EJ Manuel completed 67.9 percent of his passes this year while throwing for 3,101 yards. Manuel threw 22 touchdowns compared to just 10 interceptions. Northern Illinois -- QB Jordan Lynch ranks third in the country in total offense (364.1 yards per game) and fourth in rushing (1,771 yards). Lynch needs just 38 passing yards to become the first player in NCAA history to throw for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,500 in a season.

Who could steal the show: Florida State -- DE Bjoern Werner had 13 sacks this season which tied for the most in the nation. He also had 18 tackles for loss. Northern Illinois -- WR Martel Moore earned First Team All-MAC honors. Moore led the Huskies with 72 receptions for 1,054 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Magic number for Florida State: Minus-7. Florida State is No. 96 nationally in turnover margin at minus-7. The Seminoles have turned the ball over 20 times in their last seven games.

Magic number for Northern Illinois: 3.29. The Huskies are allowing opponents to gain 3.29 yards per carry this season, which ranks No. 14 nationally. In its last four games, Northern Illinois is allowing just 2.51 yards per rush.

3 keys to a Florida State win

  • Take Northern Illinois seriously. The Huskies’ inclusion in the BCS was met with plenty of skepticism, and that disrespect is something from which Northern Illinois can draw motivation. Make no mistake, Florida State needs to play well to win.
  • Stop Lynch. This is the name of the game for the Seminoles. If they slow Lynch down, they should easily win the game. The only problem is that Lynch was held below 274 yards of total offense just once, a 173-yard performance in the Huskies’ 18-17 loss to Iowa.
  • Take pressure off Manuel. Florida State needs to do a good job of protecting Manuel and establishing a consistent running game. The Seminoles have rushed for at least 112 yards in 12 of their 13 games this season.

3 keys to a Northern Illinois win

  • Get off to a quick start. The Huskies have to hang in against a Florida State team that can deliver knock out blows early. If Northern Illinois can hang around into the second half, all the pressure will shift onto the Seminoles.
  • Force turnovers. The easiest way to pull off an upset is for the defense to get takeaways. The Huskies have intercepted at least one pass in nine straight games. Florida State has lost 16 fumbles, which is tied for 108th nationally.
  • Run the ball. Florida State is No. 5 nationally in rushing defense, giving up 93 yards per game. On the other side, Northern Illinois is ninth in rushing offense, averaging 250.1 yards per game. The Huskies have to have a balanced offensive attack to consistently move the ball against Florida State’s defense.

Prediction: Florida State 31, Northern Illinois 16

For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from ACC bloggers Shawn Krest and Sean Bielawski, follow @CBSSportsACC.