For the first time in the history of their successful football programs, the San Diego State Aztecs and Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders will meet on the field Saturday in the 2022 Hawaii Bowl. Both clubs overcame adversity to become bowl eligible. MTSU (7-5) once stood at 3-4 but won four of five down the stretch to earn a bid in the Hawaii Bowl. San Diego State (7-5) started 2-3 but rebounded to win five of its last seven and receive a postseason invitation.

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu. The Aztecs are 6.5-point favorites in the San Diego State vs. MTSU odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over/under for total points is set at 48. Before making any MTSU vs. San Diego State picks or 2022 Hawaii Bowl predictions, you need to see the betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on MTSU vs. San Diego State and just locked in its picks and Hawaii Bowl 2022 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for San Diego State vs. MTSU:

  • San Diego State vs. MTSU point spread: San Diego State -6.5
  • San Diego State vs. MTSU over/under total: 48 points
  • San Diego State vs. MTSU money line: San Diego State -250, MTSU +205
  • MTSU: The Blue Raiders are 5-1 against the spread in their past six non-conference games.
  • SDSU: The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their past five December games.
  • San Diego State vs. MTSU picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | San Diego State Aztecs vs. Middle Tenn. Blue Raiders

Why San Diego State can cover

A factor working in San Diego State's favor is that it runs a 3-3-5 base defense that is designed to prevent the type of big plays for which Middle Tennessee State's offense is known. In order for it to work, the Aztecs have to be strong up front and they were again this season, with multiple players receiving some form of national recognition. Defensive end Jonah Tavai, who earned second-team All-American honors, has been the most consistent force, leading the team with nine sacks and 12 quarterback hurries. Senior linebacker Michael Shawcroft, who was named to the all-conference second team, led the Aztecs in tackles with 77.

The back end of the defense did its job as well. Senior safety Patrick McMorris provides support with 59 solo tackles. He also led the team with five pass break-ups and added an interception and fumble recovery. Senior cornerback Dallas Branch grabbed a team-high three interceptions and added a pair of defended passes for a secondary that finished the season with 12 total interceptions. 

Why MTSU can cover

Blue Raiders coach Rick Stockstill is known for his diversified offensive attacks, and this season has been no exception. In a conference noted for explosive offensive units, MTSU ranked no. 5 in overall offense with averages of 29.7 points and 390 total yards per contest.

The Blue Raiders are at their best when they go up tempo and use the variety of weapons at hand for quarterback Chase Cunningham. He has benefitted from one of the deepest receiving units in the country, evidenced by the fact that MTSU rosters eight players who have notched at least 14 receptions, and five more who have hauled in between five and eight receptions.

Sophomore wideout Jaylin Lane leads the way with 59 catches for 829 yards and four touchdowns. Junior DJ England-Chisolm provides a big play threat with an average of 16.3 yards on 22 receptions for 359 yards and four scores, tied with Lane for the team lead among receivers. Sophomore running back Frank Peasant provides a solid presence in the ground game with a team-high 747 yards on 165 carries for nine touchdowns. He also has 276 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the passing game.  

How to make MTSU vs. San Deigo State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 41 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins San Diego State vs. MTSU? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.