A spot in the Sweet 16 is up for grabs when the No. 4 Connecticut Huskies square off against the fifth-seeded Saint Mary's Gaels on Sunday in a second round matchup in the West Region of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. UConn, which hasn't posted two wins during March Madness since capturing the fourth national championship in program history in 2014, cruised to an 87-63 victory over Iona on Friday. The Gaels, who made their only Sweet 16 appearance in 2010, are coming off a 63-51 first round triumph over VCU.

Tipoff at MVP Arena in Albany, NY is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. The Huskies are 4-point favorites in the latest UConn vs. Saint Mary's odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 125. Before making any Saint Mary's vs. UConn picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament 79-53 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,300 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Connecticut vs. Saint Mary's and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Saint Mary's vs. Connecticut:

  • UConn vs. Saint Mary's spread: Huskies -4
  • UConn vs. Saint Mary's over/under: 125 points
  • UConn vs. Saint Mary's money line: Huskies -190, Gaels +160
  • UCONN: The Huskies are 17-6 against the spread in their last 23 NCAA Tournament games
  • SMC: The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five contests following an ATS win
  • UConn vs. Saint Mary's picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why UConn can cover

The Huskies had their six-game winning streak halted by Marquette in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament and it took them time to regroup as they trailed Iona at halftime on Friday. But they got their act together during the break and kicked off the second half with a 17-4 run to take control. Junior forward Adama Sanogo, who leads UConn this season with an average of 17.1 points, scored 10 during the burst and added 12 more in the period to finish with a season-high 28 on 13-of-17 shooting.

Sanogo also grabbed 13 rebounds against Iona to post his seventh double-double of the campaign. Sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins missed all six of his shot attempts in the first half but scored 13 points over the final 20 minutes, including the other seven in the Huskies' decisive burst. UConn also received a strong contribution off the bench from freshman center Donovan Clingan, who recorded 12 points on 5-of-7 shooting and added nine boards in only 13 minutes of action.

Why Saint Mary's can cover 

The Gaels are looking to reach the Sweet 16 for the third time in school history and first since 2010, when they upset Richmond and Villanova as the No. 10 seed in their region before losing to Baylor. Only five players recorded points in Friday's victory, but four of them reached double figures. Junior center Mitchell Saxen and senior guard Alex Ducas led the way with 17 points apiece, while sophomore guard Augustas Marciulionis came off the bench to post 13.

Ducas pulled down eight rebounds, dished out four assists and made five steals, while Saxen had seven boards, four assists and four blocks. Senior guard Logan Johnson, who leads Saint Mary's with an average of 14.6 points, scored 12 and grabbed 10 rebounds for his first career double-double. The Gaels played a strong defensive game against VCU, forcing 14 turnovers while limiting the Rams to 36.7% shooting - including 22.2% in the second half.

How to make Saint Mary's vs. UConn picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 138 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins UConn vs. Saint Mary's? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.