Where: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Fla. (natural grass, outdoors)
When: 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Titans by 4
Forecast: Sunny with temperatures in the high 60s; No chance of rain.
Records: Titans (Overall: 4-6, AFC South: 0-2); Jaguars (Overall: 1-9, AFC South: 1-3)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 24, 2011. Titans 23, Jags 17; Sept. 11, 2011. Jags 16, Titans 14. Series record: Titans lead 20-15
What matters: Despite not playing last week, the Titans gained ground in the playoff chase with losses by the Steelers and Colts. Sunday’s divisional game is a must-win for the Titans if they hope to have any postseason aspirations in December. Tennessee has yet to win a divisional game this season and can’t afford to fall to 0-3 with a loss to the lowly Jaguars.
Who matters: Jake Locker. The Titans’ starting quarterback returned to the lineup in a 37-3, Week-10 win over the Dolphins, after missing Tennessee’s five previous games with a shoulder injury. Locker didn’t need to do much after the Titans raced out to a 24-3 halftime lead. Expect Locker to take on a greater role in his second game back. In his second season, Locker has worked on taking fewer risks by avoiding throws into tight windows.
Key matchups: Jags WR Justin Blackmon vs. Titans CBs Alterraun Verner, Jason McCourty and Coty Sensabaugh. The Jags’ rookie receiver had a breakout performance in last week’s loss to the Texans with seven catches for 236 yards and a touchdown. The chiseled 210-pound receiver piled up the majority of his yards by eluding defenders on plays after the catch. Jaguars QB Chad Henne established a rapport with Blackmon in the overtime defeat. Henne threw for 354 yards and four TDs in relief of Blaine Gabbert. Titans coach Mike Munchak describes Henne as a fearless passer, who is highly-confident in his abilities.
Injuries of note: Titans: TE Craig Stevens (hamstring) and LB Colin McCarthy (ankle) have been limited by injuries, but are expected to play. Jags: Gabbert (elbow, shoulder) and WR Laurent Robinson were placed on IR earlier in the week.
Inside stuff: The Jaguars have a penchant for moving Blackmon to several different positions in efforts to capitalize on one-on-one matchups. When Blackmon is lined up in the slot, he could be matched up with Sensabaugh -- who was inserted into the lineup in the Titans’ sub-packages against the Dolphins. Munchak has been impressed with Senabaugh’s communication skills when he’s needed to make adjustments in pre-snap situations.
Connections: Titans DC Jerry Gray served in a similar capacity with the Bills in 2004-2005 during Jags’ head coach Mike Mularkey’s head coaching tenure in Buffalo. Titans OC Chris Palmer served as the Jags OC from 1997-1998. Under Palmer, former Jags QB Mark Brunell posted the highest QB rating (91.2) of his career. Titans DE Kamerion Wimbley and Jags’ FB Greg Jones were teammates in college at Florida State.
Stats you should know: After three games, the Titans rushed for only 117 yards combined on 2.6 yards per carry. In Tennessee’s last four games, however, the Titans have averaged more than 161 yards per game on more than six yards per carry. The Titans rank second in the NFL in runs behind the left guard (6.68 ypc) and third on runs toward the left end (7.26 ypc). Jacksonville, meanwhile, leads the NFL in defending runs behind the left guard (1.35 ypc) and is ninth on runs toward the left end (4.14 ypc). Both teams have been porous on defense. The Jaguars have allowed 414.2 yards per game (31st), while the Titans rank 30th in total defense (399.0 ypg).
Record watch: With 138 rushing yards this week, RB Chris Johnson will reach the 1,000 yard mark for the fifth consecutive season. Johnson will join Eddie George as the only running backs in franchise history to accomplish the feat.
Looking ahead: Sunday’s matchup is the first of three consecutive games for the Titans against divisional opponents. The Titans will face the AFC-leading Texans next Sunday before traveling to Indianapolis to face the Colts.
Prediction: Titans 31, Jags 20.
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis on the Tennessee Titans, follow Matt Rybaltowski @CBSTitans.
