Saints Game Preview vs. Eagles: Analysis, prediction, TV info

Saints vs. Eagles -- Week 9

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans (turf, indoors)

When: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Spread: Saints by 3

Records: Saints (Overall: 2-5; NFC South: 1-1); Eagles (Overall: 3-4; NFC East: 1-0)

Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Sept. 20, 2009: Saints 48-22 in Philadelphia; Dec. 23, 2007; Eagles 38-23 in New Orleans. Series record: Eagles lead 15-10 and are 7-7 in New Orleans.

What matters: Forcing turnovers. The Eagles have scored 24 points or fewer in every game, but the Saints’ sieve-like defense is the elixir for all struggling offenses, giving up at least 24 points in every game. With RB LeSean McCoy likely to have a big day (See: Charles, Jamaal), look for Michael Vick to pull out of his season-long slump with play-action passes to open receivers. But he can’t change his mistake-prone ways overnight. He has fumbled nine times, losing five, and added eight interceptions, accounting for 13 of the Eagles’ 17 turnovers. Although New Orleans is not going to stop Philadelphia consistently, it can win with takeaways.

Who matters: Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. With the dynamic Darren Sproles out with a broken hand and TE Jimmy Graham likely still not fully recovered from an ankle sprain, Drew Brees and the passing game need some help from what has been an anemic ground game. Thomas had a huge day in Week 2 against Carolina, rushing for 110 yards on nine carries, and is due for another big performance. He is one of the most underrated players in the league, almost never going down at first contact, and will benefit by getting the bulk of the carries in Sproles’ absence. Ivory is the wild card. He should play for the first time this year, particularly if Mark Ingram (2.9 average) continues to struggle, and he rushed for more than 100 yards against Carolina in last year’s regular season finale. Philadelphia’s run defense is in the middle of the pack (110.4 yards, 4.0 average) but could be vulnerable on the heels of an energy-sapping three-game losing streak and a midseason change of defensive coordinators.

Key matchups: Saints LBs vs. McCoy. The Saints are healthier at LB than they have been in a while, with David Hawthorne set to return after missing the previous four games with a hamstring injury. He joins Curtis Lofton, Jonathan Vilma, Scott Shanle and Jonathan Casillas. The group has to contain McCoy, preventing the breakaway runs that Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles killed them with in Week 3. They can’t get out of their gaps and they can’t miss tackles. Otherwise, McCoy, whose 4.0 average per carry is well below his 4.8 from last year, will surpass the season-high 123 yards he gained vs. the New York Giants. … CBs Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson vs. Eagles WR DeSean Jackson. In 2009, Greer ranked second to Darrelle Revis among NFL corners in percentage of incomplete passes thrown to players he was covering. Last week against Denver, he fell on his butt on one TD pass and has struggled to get over a groin injury that required surgery in August. Robinson, the Saints’ best athlete in the secondary, has been beaten right and left. They need to come up big against Jackson (34 catches, 524 yards).

Injuries of note: Sproles is irreplaceable on offense and on special teams. He set the NFL single-season record for all-purpose yards last year and had a nice 29-yard touchdown catch against Denver last Sunday. The Saints also will be without WR Courtney Roby (shoulder), an excellent cover man on kicks.

Inside stuff: The Broncos outcoached the Saints’ defensive staff last week. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo devised a nickel base with Jonathan Vilma starting alongside Curtis Lofton, and Denver came out with two tight ends and two receivers instead of the three-receiver look Spagnuolo was expecting. The Broncos proceeded to run for more than 200 yards, and Spagnuolo did not put a third linebacker on the field until the second half, when it already was too late. To a man, the players insist they believe in the coaching and the scheme, but they are not playing like it. Let’s see what Sgagnuolo comes up with to defend Vick after his failure to slow down Peyton Manning.

Connections: Spagnuolo coached at Philadelphia from 1999-2006 under current Eagles coach Andy Reid, working with the safeties, then the entire secondary and finally the linebackers. … Saints DT Brodrick Bunkley was a first-round pick of the Eagles in 2006 and played his first five years in Philadelphia.

Stats you should know: The last time the Saints and Eagles both finished with losing records was 2005, the year before the Sean Payton era began in New Orleans. That streak is in jeopardy with New Orleans 2-5 and Philadelphia 3-4. The Eagles three wins are by a combined four points. The Saints’ two wins were by a touchdown apiece. … New Orleans is 28th or worse in rushing defense, passing defense, total defense, scoring defense and rushing offense. … Philadelphia has committed 17 turnovers, but New Orleans has forced only nine.

Bulletin board quote: “They want to put all the Eagles troubles on Michael Vick, which isn’t true. He’s been hit the most of any quarterback. He’s been sitting there taking a hammering, but that’s the way it goes. They have to find someone to put the blame on.” -- Curtis Lofton

Looking ahead: The Saints play host to NFC South leader Atlanta and would love to hand the Falcons their first loss if they get past Dallas. Four of New Orleans’ next five games are against prime Super Bowl contenders -- Atlanta (twice), San Francisco and the New York Giants. If they don’t beat Philadelphia, the season is over.