derek-carr-2-1400-us.jpg
USATSI

Two teams trending in opposite directions face off under the lights in L.A. on a short week, as the Los Angeles Rams host the Las Vegas Raiders. Sean McVay's squad has lost six straight games, and are in danger of matching the earliest playoff elimination for a defending Super Bowl champion. As for the Raiders, they have won three straight games, and are very much alive to earn a wild card spot.

This is technically a Rams home game, but around 63 percent of the fans in attendance will be supporters of the Raiders, according to Vivid Seats. This is the first meeting between these two teams in Southern California since Nov. 13, 1994, when the LA Raiders defeated the LA Rams, 20-17, in Anaheim Stadium. 

The Rams claimed quarterback Baker Mayfield off of waivers earlier this week. How much run will he get on Thursday night? Or will he play at all? Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective, and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch the game. 

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch

Date: Thursday, Dec. 8 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video  
Follow: CBS Sports App 
Odds: Raiders -6.5, O/U 43.5

Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Injury Report

This is the second straight week that Jacobs has been listed as questionable heading into a Raiders game. Despite his designation, Jacobs played and rumbled for 144 yards on 26 carries in Sunday's win over the Chargers, so the expectation is that he will once again suit up on Thursday night. 

For just the second time this season, it appears that the Rams are going to have the same starting offensive line for consecutive weeks (h/t Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic). Another notable facet of the Rams' injury report is Donald missing his second straight game after not missing a single game the previous four seasons. 

Line movement

This line reopened at LV -5 on Wednesday, Nov. 30. It rose to LV -6 that Thursday. It fell to LV -5 on Friday, but rose back up to LV -5.5 on Saturday. This past Monday, the line moved to LV -6, and then LV -6.5 on Wednesday. 

The pick: Raiders -6.5. Here, we have one team that has newfound momentum thanks to a three-game win streak, and another team that is likely a loss away from being eliminated from postseason contention, and is already looking forward to 2023. The number is under a touchdown? I'll take it.

CBS Sports research guru Doug Clawson wrote a great piece this week breaking down five reasons why the Raiders can make a playoff run. Their schedule down the stretch isn't too bad, Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams are absolutely rolling, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are nearing returns, plus Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby rank 1-2 in the NFL in pressures over the last three weeks. Remember, the Raiders made a late-season run to make the playoffs last year. Maybe they can do it again. Jacobs is questionable to play with quad and calf injuries, but I'm still going to take the Raiders to win and cover. 

Over/Under 43.5

The total reopened at 42.5 on Wednesday, Nov. 30. Last Friday, it rose to 43. Monday, it rose to 44.5, but fell to 44 on Tuesday. Wednesday, it dropped to 43.5. 

The pick: Under 43.5. Both teams are around .500 when it comes to the Over/Under on the year. The Rams average 16.8 points per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL, but they scored 23 points last week against the Seattle Seahawks thanks to two rushing touchdowns from Cam Akers. I'm going to lean to the Under here. The Rams questionable quarterback situation with Wolford and Mayfield only reinforces my lean. 

Derek Carr props

Derek Carr
LV • QB • #4
CMP%62.3
YDs2980
TD20
INT8
YD/Att7.2
View Profile

Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing yards: 249.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 33.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
Passing completions: 21.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -119, Under -115)

I'm going to take the Over on Carr's passing touchdowns prop, as he's thrown at least two scores in five straight games now. I believe Jacobs not being 100 percent helps my case. Carr has attempted under 33.5 passing attempts just four times this year, but I lean to the Under in this matchup. I'd rather not touch Carr's passing completions number. Give me the Under on Carr's passing yards number, and I'll take him to throw an interception as well. 

Props to consider

Daniel Carlson made field goals: Over 1.5 (-148). Carlson has made at least two field goals in each of the past three games. What's really wild is that he has also missed a field goal in each of the past three games! Give me the Over. 

Cam Akers rushing yards: Over 45.5 (-113). Cam Akers props probably aren't the most popular in the world, I get it, but he rushed for 60 yards on 17 attempts last week. He's rushed for at least 60 yards in two out of his past three outings as well, so maybe he makes the best of his opportunities on Thursday night. The Raiders rush defense is statistically pretty middle of the pack.