Texans at Patriots -- Week 14

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. (turf, outdoors)

When: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Spread: Patriots by 3.5

Forecast: Temperatures in the 40s with a 60 percent chance of rain.

Records: Patriots (9-3, AFC East 5-0); Texans (11-1, AFC South 4-0);

Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Jan. 3, 2010: Texans 34, Patriots 27; Dec. 17, 2006: Patriots 40, Texans 7. Series record: Patriots lead 2-1.

What matters: The Patriots are riding a six-game winning streak into Monday night’s game, but they haven’t yet faced a test quite like the Texans since facing Baltimore early in the season. Back then, New England was a team searching for its identity. Now, it feels as though some of those questions have been answered. The Texans will let the Pats know if their inclinations are correct. Beyond that, this game has big playoff implications. If the Patriots lose, their hopes of winning the AFC are essentially over.

Who matters: The Patriots have made it clear that their biggest concern this week is Houston DE J.J. Watt (who doesn’t worry about this guy). The team has used racquetball rackets in practice to simulate his ability to knock down passes (he has 15 pass breakups this year), and have also spent a lot of time figuring out how to stop Houston’s five-man rush. That puts a spotlight on guard Logan Mankins, who could potentially return this week after missing the last two games with ankle and calf injuries.

Key matchups: The Pats could have an advantage to exploit in the slot with Houston CB Brice McCain being knocked out for the year with a foot injury. It seems that CB Brandon Harris will line up against Wes Welker, which could be a favorable matchup for New England. … On the other side of the ball, CB Aqib Talib will have his hands full with Texans WR Andre Johnson. For New England to find success, they have to neutralize one of Houston’s many offensive threats.

Injuries of note: TE Rob Gronkowski is out with a forearm injury. … Mankins is battling foot and calf injuries, but has practiced this week. … DE Chandler Jones appears to be on his way back from an ankle injury.

Inside stuff: LB Brandon Spikes has long been labeled as having poor coverage skills, but he’s quietly been more effective against the pass. He’s been credited with seven passes defensed, which places him four behind defensive back Devin McCourty.

Connections: None at the professional level. Patriots DE Brandon Deaderick and Dont’a Hightower played college ball with Texans CB Kareem Jackson. Houston C Chris Myers and WR Andre Johnson lined up at Miami alongside Pats DT Vince Wilfork.

Stat you should know: Houston has only allowed 15 sacks this season. The Patriots aren’t going to find it easy to create pressure on QB Matt Schaub.

Bulletin board quote: Watt on the Patriots practicing with rackets: “If you have tennis rackets in your hand, it’s hard to rush the passer.” Watt has 16.5 sacks this season, tops in the AFC.

Looking ahead: Nothing beyond this week really matters. The Patriots have to beat Houston to keep their hopes of winning the conference alive. Their prize if they do? A date next week with the San Francisco 49ers.

Prediction: Texans 34, Patriots 31

Nick Underhill covers the Patriots for MassLive.com. Follow him on Twitter @CBSPats or @nick_underhill.