The biggest question mark entering last year was Jordan Love. Would he continue the Packers' run of MVP-caliber quarterbacks, settle in as an average starter or completely face plant. Sure enough, he took a leap to superstardom, culminating with a blowout win in Dallas in the postseason. Now he's on the doorstep of a new contract that'll surely pay him over $50 million per year.
Love's season is one of the greatest quarterback leaps in recent memory and also illustrates how fascinating and impactful the quarterback leap can be. Every year a few quarterbacks burst onto the scene or improve their play to a degree that can change the fortunes of a franchise (and their personal fortunes).
As an NFL history buff and someone who loves to nerd out, I decided to find every quarterback leap since the turn of the century (2000) in search of the most common factors that linked the leaps together as we look ahead to another season of quarterback leaps in 2024.
Quarterback leap criteria:
- There needs to be a statistical baseline. I started my search with quarterbacks who jumped at least a quarter of the league's qualified passers from one season to the next in terms of expected points added (EPA) per play. EPA takes into account value added on all plays, from passes, sacks, scrambles and designed runs. It captures a quarterback's entire impact better than a traditional stat like passer rating.
- I used the eye test to refine the list, adding and subtracting quarterbacks from there. Numbers were a great place to start but not the end all, be all. For example, there are quarterbacks who qualified for the passer leaderboard, but clearly didn't have enough playing time for anyone to believe they made "the leap."
- Traditionally, you might connect a quarterback leap to players in their first few seasons in the league. I looked at leaps of all flavors. I included Aaron Rodgers in 2020. He clearly took a step forward after the Jordan Love pick, winning back-to-back MVPs, following a few average seasons.
History of the quarterback leap
Now that I've established the ground rules, let's get to the good stuff. There were 97 total quarterback leaps since 2000, which averages out to roughly four per season. There's been at least one leap in every season over that span, and three leaps in 22 of the past 24 seasons.
Feast your eyes on the list. You'll probably remember some of these seasons, like Ryan Tannehill leading the Titans to an AFC Championship game after a period of obscurity with the Dolphins. Do you recall Case Keenum and his season leading up to the "Minneapolis Miracle?" You definitely remember the sophomore jumps made by Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. My personal favorites include Andy Dalton in 2015, when the "Red Rifle" made a run at MVP before getting hurt, and Drew Brees in 2006, when he broke out with the Saints. Plus, Jalen Hurts made a quantum leap in 2022.
Quarterback leaps since 2000
| 2023 | Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield |
2022 | Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Geno Smith, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones |
2021 | Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray |
2020 | Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert |
2019 | Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo |
2018 | Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck |
2017 | Case Keenum, Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, Blake Bortles, Jared Goff |
2016 | |
2015 | Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Carson Palmer, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick |
2014 | |
2013 | Nick Foles, Philip Rivers |
2012 | |
2011 | Cam Newton, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford |
2010 | Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman, Michael Vick |
2009 | Brett Favre |
2008 | Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Chad Pennington, Matt Ryan, Kurt Warner, Matt Cassel |
2007 | Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Derek Anderson, David Garrard |
2006 | Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees |
2005 | Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Mark Brunell |
2004 | Drew Brees, Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger |
2003 | Jake Plummer, Jon Kitna, Daunte Culpepper |
2002 | Trent Green, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, Brad Johnson, Drew Bledsoe |
2001 | Steve McNair, Kordell Stewart, Brett Favre |
2000 | Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia, Kerry Collins |
A trio of young stars led a group of leaps last season:
Jordan Love
Green Bay Packers QB
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| Jordan Love threw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns in 2023. The only quarterbacks to exceed those numbers in their first season as a full-time starter in NFL history are Patrick Mahomes and Kurt Warner. He did that for the youngest team to win a playoff game since the merger. Green Bay also sported the most touchdown grabs by first- and second-year players all time. The Packers are beyond spoiled at quarterback! Love's play was truly Aaron Rodgers-esque. He went on a second-half run that mirrored some of Rodgers' late-season tears. He was calm under pressure and even some of his throws on the run and sidearm deliveries bore a stark resemblance to his predecessor. There was a nine-game run from Week 11 through the wild card playoffs where Love had 21 touchdown passes and one interception, including eight touchdowns and no picks when he was pressured. That kind of composure considering the youth around him bodes extremely well for his future. |
Brock Purdy
San Francisco 49ers QB
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| Brock Purdy made the sophomore jump in 2023 and proved his rookie season was no fluke. He became the fifth quarterback in NFL history with 30 touchdown passes and 4,000 yards in his first season as a full-time starter, along with Love, Patrick Mahomes, Kurt Warner and Justin Herbert. He made the right plays within Kyle Shanahan's system and also proved he could elevate his team with game-winning drives vs. the Packers and Lions to help San Francisco reach the Super Bowl. Purdy led the NFL in a myriad of categories last year that suggest he was no mere game manager. That includes completion rate 20-plus yards downfield (55 percent) and yards per attempt outside the numbers. |
C.J. Stroud
Houston Texans QB
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| C.J. Stroud burst onto the scene with one of the most impressive rookie seasons in NFL history. He became the youngest quarterback (22) and highest-drafted rookie quarterback (second overall) to win a playoff game in NFL history after taking over a Texans team that went 3-13-1 in 2022. He joined Tom Brady (2007) and Joe Montana (1989) as the only quarterbacks in the last 50 seasons to lead the NFL outright in both passing yards per game and touchdown-to-interception ratio (min. 10 starts). He also posted the highest TD-to-INT ratio (10.5) vs winning teams in NFL history, including playoffs. It was a monster statistical season, and he did it all with a rookie head coach and some unheralded pass catchers (at the time) between Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz. Perhaps Stroud's best feature was how he consistently drove the ball down field in Bobby Slowik's offense. He has the second-most 25-yard completions (40) by any quarterback through 15 career games on record, behind Patrick Mahomes (48). The scary part is, we may just be scratching the surface as he could take another leap with the acquisition of Stefon Diggs. Remember how his trade to the Bills was a catalyst for Josh Allen's superstar leap? |
Baker Mayfield
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB
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| Baker Mayfield's comeback from Browns and Panthers castoff to the Buccaneers' potential franchise quarterback is a wild twist that was sparked by the almost impossible comeback he pulled off in his debut with the Rams (vs. the Raiders back in 2022). The change of scenery to Tampa Bay certainly helped him flourish as the gunslinger thrived with veteran playmakers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He even took his game to a new level in the postseason, joining Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes as the only two players with 325 pass yards and three touchdown passes in two straight games to start a postseason. Mayfield had 17 touchdowns and five picks over his final eight starts in 2023, giving Buccaneers fans hope he can make good on his new three-year deal. |
Matthew Stafford
Los Angeles Rams QB
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| Matthew Stafford went from 29th in EPA per play in 2022 to third in 2023, thanks in part to his rookie record-setting teammate Puka Nacua. The Rams' entire supporting cast made a leap in 2023 as Kyren Williams broke out and Cooper Kupp returned from injury. Stafford went on a tear down the stretch once that group got healthy and nearly pulled out a playoff win in Detroit. It wasn't all the supporting cast, either; he was vintage Stafford dropping dimes left-and-right last year. |
Lamar Jackson
Baltimore Ravens QB
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| Lamar Jackson had several things going for him in 2023 that allowed him to return to MVP form. He was healthy, the Ravens hired Todd Monken at offensive coordinator, plus drafted Zay Flowers and signed Odell Beckham Jr. You could tell Jackson had a new comfort level with this supporting cast as he led the NFL in yards per pass attempt when pressured (8.7) last season. He ranked fourth worst in that category in 2022 (4.5). |
One interesting element of the quarterback leap is sustainability. Since 2000, just over half of the quarterbacks to take a leap made an additional Pro Bowl in their career. Quarterbacks like Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum and Mitchell Trubisky made leaps that turned out to be more like one-hit wonders. It'll be interesting to see which 2023 leap turns out to be unsustainable.
Biggest factors behind quarterback leaps
It's been said that in order to look forward, you have to look back. So for the rest of this week I'll be using the history of quarterback leaps to project who will make a jump in 2024.
As I selected all 97 quarterback leaps since 2000, I also picked out the biggest reason for each leap. The primary factors fell into four buckets. Here's a look at what's coming up in the 'Quarterback Leap Week' schedule:
Quarterback Leap Week
Tuesday: Which young quarterback is the next to make the leap?
The most common reason for a leap wasn't a new star teammate or big change on the coaching staff, it's simple quarterback development. You've probably heard of the Year 2 leap before. There's been a Year 2 leap in six of the past seven seasons. Think Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy. This year's candidates include Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. Of course, development isn't just limited to Year 2 players. Other young quarterbacks who can crush expectations include rookies like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.
Wednesday: Which coaching change will spur a leap?
Coaching changes were the second-biggest reason for a leap. A new coach was the primary factor with roughly one quarter of all leaps, including Lamar Jackson getting a new offensive coordinator (Todd Monken) last year. Leap candidates in 2024 include Geno Smith (new head coach Mike Macdonald) and Justin Herbert (with Jim Harbaugh).
Thursday: Which offseason move will lead to a leap?
They say the NFL is a copycat league and the new trend is trading for veteran pass catchers, especially those who can speed up the development of new quarterbacks. Getting top-flight wide receivers worked wonders for Josh Allen (Stefon Diggs), Joe Burrow (Ja'Marr Chase), Jalen Hurts (A.J. Brown), Tua Tagovailoa (Tyreek Hill) and Lamar Jackson (Zay Flowers). It's definitely a new fad, as a quarterback made a leap due primarily to an improved supporting cast in eight of the past 10 seasons. Leap candidates this year include Daniel Jones (Malik Nabers), Patrick Mahomes (Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy), Jalen Hurts (Saquon Barkley), Kyler Murray (Marvin Harrison Jr.) and C.J. Stroud (Stefon Diggs).
Friday: Which old face in a new place will improve the most?
The hot trend that bounced back after a miserable 2022 was veteran quarterback in new places. Baker Mayfield was able to resurrect his career in Tampa Bay, won a playoff game and got a three-year deal. Last season didn't work out so hot for Aaron Rodgers, but let's hit the reset button as 2023 was a wash. Other 2024 leap candidates include Russell Wilson and Justin Fields (both for the Steelers), Kirk Cousins (Falcons) and Gardner Minshew (Raiders).
