Bears Game Preview vs. Lions: Analysis, prediction, TV info

Bears vs. Lions -- Week 17

Where: Ford Field, Detroit (indoors)

When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Spread: Bears by 3

Records: Bears (9-6; NFC North 2-3 ); Lions (4-11; NFC North 0-5)

Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Oct. 22, 2012, Bears 13, Lions 7; Nov. 13, 2011, Bears 37, Lions 13. Series record: The Bears lead 95-65-5 and have won eight of the last nine.

What matters: This game decides Bears' playoff hopes and possibly coach Lovie Smith's future, although no reputable source has gone on record saying GM Phil Emery is definitely replacing the Bears coach if they fail to get into the playoffs. If the Bears win, they need Green Bay to Beat Minnesota in a 4 p.m. game in order to be playing a wild card round game next weekend in either San Francisco or Seattle. If they win and fail to get in the playoffs with a 10-6 mark, it could make for a difficult decision for Emery about this coaching regime. It's easily the most important game Smith has coached since the NFC title game after the 2010 season. Playing it on the road makes it tougher, although Ford Field is sure to be loaded with plenty of Bears fans. Facing a Lions team that has lost seven straight and is essentially playing its Super Bowl as a spoiler could make this difficult. Then again, it's a 4-11 opponent that the Bears should beat if they really are a playoff team. It's also a 4-11 team that has had extra time to prepare because its last game was Dec. 20. It's also important to note one of Detroit's wins came over a Seattle team that many think is Super Bowl material.

Who matters: QB Jay Cutler comes into this game with a poor 66.3 passer rating over the past three contests, but has enjoyed great success as a starter against the Lions. He has a 100.9 passer rating with 140 completions in 217 attempts for 1,565 yads and 11 touchdowns with only one INT. He's 7-1 as a starter against Detroit, but did not enjoy a particularly good game Oct. 22 when the Bears won 13-7 at Soldier Field as he went 16-of-31 passing for 150 yards with a TD. ... RB Matt Forte, who will play despite suffering from an ankle sprain, has also given the Lions problems with 774 yards on 157 attempts and four TDs. Forte also has 27 catches for 301 yards and three TDs against Detroit, but is experiencing his worst season in the passing game with 42 catches for 319 yards. ... Safety Anthony Walters makes his first NFL start because of Chris Conte's ankle sprain, and he could wind up the last line of defense much of the game against the NFL's No. 1-ranked passing offense.

Key matchups: Bears CB Charles Tillman vs. Lions WR Calvin Johnson. Having set the NFL record last week for pass receiving yardage in a single season with 1,892, Megatron goes for the incomprehensible 2,000-yard barrier. Only 34 of his receiving yards (on three catches) came against Tillman and the Bears defense in the first game. With Tillman coming in around 6-foot-2 and Megatron at 6-5 1/2, the size edge isn't as big and Tillman tends to play more physical. Johnson has averaged 72.9 yards per game in 10 games against the Bears, but has made just four TD catches in those. The Bears want to minimize his damage and force Lions QB Matthew Stafford to beat them using other targets. ... Bears G Chris Spencer vs. Lions DT Ndamukong Suh. Against the Bears, Suh usually lays the wood to Cutler once or twice a game. It looked bleak for the Bears for a while, considering Suh could have been facing RT Gabe Carimi playing guard. But Spencer has returned to health after a knee injury. Trying to cope with Suh's explosiveness on the artificial surface won't be easy, and the Bears can be expected to move Cutler around as they did against Minnesota. ... Bears WR Brandon Marshall vs. Lions CB Jonte Green. The 5-foot-11 Green is a rookie making his fifth start. He's part of the reason the Detroit defense has been getting beat for big plays on a regular basis. He has one interception, and it came in the last Lions win eight games ago. Marshall is coming off a rough week against a much more physical cornerback (Patrick Peterson) so look for him to get physical with Green and break a few big plays.

Injuries of note: LB Brian Urlacher (hamstring) will miss a fourth straight game and will be replaced by Nick Roach, with Geno Hayes stepping in at Roach's strong-side spot. ... Conte's absence due to a hamstring injury is big not only because of the Bears' lack of safety depth -- they have to use a player signed this week as a third safety -- but because opposing QBs have only a 69.8 passer rating this year when Conte and Major Wright are at the two safety spots. ... RB Armando Allen has a knee injury which leaves Forte and Kahlil Bell as the only healthy backs, and Forte is trying to work through an ankle sprain.

Inside stuff: Expect the Bears to try to avoid cutback runs more this week against the Lions than against Arizona. With the Lions employing the "wide 9" defensive look that has defensive ends split out wider, it's difficult to get them sucked in to where they can be sealed off by a tight end's block. Rather, the backs will stay with the blocking scheme more on stretch plays or counter trey rushes. It's the type of running better suited to Bell than Forte.

Stat you should know: The Lions defense has given up 31.8 points per game in Detroit's seven-game losing streak, but the best Detroit defensive effort of the year came against the Bears when they held Cutler and the offense to 13 points in Chicago. ... The Bears offense hasn't gotten into the end zone more than twice in a game since their Nov. 4, 51-20 win at Tennessee in Week 9. ... DT Henry Melton made the Pro Bowl but has had only two sacks since Oct. 1.

Record watch: Devin Hester still needs one TD to tie Deion Sanders for most career TD returns of any kind ... CB Tim Jennings needs three INTs to break the Bears single-season mark of 10 (Mark Carrier, 1990). ... The Bears need two TDs on interception returns to break the NFL record of nine in a season, and two TD returns of any kind to break the NFL record for defensive scores in a season (10).

Bulletin board material: Melton this week called Lions C Dominic Raiola a "dirty" player who cusses a lot, while Raiola called Melton "a clown."

Looking ahead: With a win and a Vikings loss, the Bears would likely be at San Francisco in the wild card round of the playoffs next week, day and time to be determined. The only way they would make the playoffs and go to Seattle would be if Arizona beat the 49ers in San Francisco and the Seahawks won at home over the Rams.

Prediction: Bears 31, Lions 17.