Major League Baseball's offseason is underway, and that means everyone is thinking about the future. In most cities, that means next season; in some, though, it means the bigger picture, the next three to five years. You're either selling wins or you're selling hope, the old saying goes. We here at CBS Sports like to provide as much hope as we can around this time of the winter by evaluating each team's farm system.
Of course, that doesn't mean every team has an equally good farm system -- some, as you'll find out throughout this process, are lacking in that respect. It does mean, nevertheless, that CBS Sports will be spending the next couple of months examining the top three prospects in each organization. We define "prospects" as retaining their rookie eligibility for the 2024 season, so if a young player is missing that's likely why.
These lists and evaluations are formed following conversations with scouts, analysts, and player development types. There's also firsthand evaluation and bias thrown into the mix. Keep in mind that player evaluation is a hard task, and it's fine if you disagree with the rankings. These are opinions, and they have no real bearing on the future. You can check out our winter top 25 list by clicking here.
With that in mind, let's get to it by dissecting the Toronto Blue Jays.
1. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP (21 years old)
- The short version: Low-slot lefty with good stuff and continuing durability questions.
- MLB ETA: Summer 2024
Tiedemann closed out the season with a Triple-A start that saw him strike out six of the 14 batters he faced. Even so, the error bars on his outlook remain as wide as any other top 50-caliber prospect. Since being drafted in 2021, he's thrown a total of 122 innings, including 44 this season. (He did throw an additional 18 frames in the Arizona Fall League.) In theory, Tiedemann should be at least a mid-rotation starter thanks to three plus or better pitches -- a mid-90s fastball, changeup, and sweeping slider -- that he delivers from a low slot. In reality, he's going to need to prove he can handle a starter's workload sooner than later if he wants to avoid being shifted to the bullpen.
2. Arjun Nimmala, SS (18 years old)
- The short version: Extremely young and promising shortstop.
- MLB ETA: Sometime in 2027 at earliest
Nimmala was, in our estimation, a top-10 talent who reportedly slid to 20th in the draft because of bonus demands. If you were sketching out a skill set that could result in star-level outcomes, it would look something like his. He's an extremely young shortstop with the actions and arm strength to remain there. Offensively, he's shown the ability to make loud contact with a straightforward swing. Nimmala's lean frame seems primed to add muscle over the coming years, at which point he could possess a tantalizing combination of power and defense at a premium position. There's a lot of potential downside here, too, of course. Still, if you have the appetite for upside, he's your guy.
3. Orelvis Martinez, 2B/3B (22 years old)
- The short version: Bounce back season has him closer to the majors, though some questions persist
- MLB ETA: Spring 2024
Martinez, who received a signing bonus worth more than $3.5 million in 2018, repaired his stock last season by homering 28 times combined between Double- and Triple-A. Martinez's main issues have been his hit-tool projections and his long-term defensive home. He's still prone to an overly aggressive approach that results in a high whiff rate, but it's notable that he posted a career-high walk rate in 2023. The Blue Jays seemed to concede that he's not going to be a shortstop, instead giving him a lot of burn at second and third base. Martinez's chances of sticking on a MLB roster are going to be made or fade based on how often he can tap into his power against big-league pitching. We should start to find out the answer to that question at some point in 2024.
