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AUGUSTA, Ga. -- Two streaks could come to an end this week at the 2017 Masters. For the last 11 years, the eventual Masters winner has been inside the top 10 after Round 1 at Augusta National. The eventual winner has also always been within four of the lead in those 11 years.
Before we get to why those streaks could end, let’s look at the scores as well as the current top 10 on the leaderboard.
Could our eventual 2017 Masters winner come from this group? Sure, it could. But the favorite is now Rory McIlroy, who is just outside this group after firing an even-par 72 on Thursday on a day when it could have been much worse. Sportsbooks agree, placing McIlroy as an 11/2 favorite over leader Charley Hoffman (6/1).
If recent history holds, though, you’re looking at one of those 11 as the next owner of a green jacket. It’s quite a list. The only ones that make a ton of sense are Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose, and they might have win this event by hanging in on a super windy day. But that brings us to another streak that could be broken.
Unless William McGirt or Hoffman takes the tournament, the winner will have come from more than four back after 18 holes for the first time since Tiger Woods was seven down in 2005. Chris DiMarco shot 67 in Round 1 that year with Woods shooting 74.
Each of the previous 11 Masters winners were at/within 4 of the lead after the 1st round. Hoffman, McGirt only 2 that fit that bill.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGC) April 6, 2017
The four-stroke lead for Hoffman is one of the best rounds ever at the Masters (he was 10 strokes better than the field average), which makes it historically good.
Charley Hoffman's 4-stroke lead ties 2nd largest after 18 holes in @TheMasters history. Craig Wood 5 shots, 1941, Jack Burke 4 shots, 1955.
— Dave Shedloski (@DaveShedloski) April 6, 2017
Of course, Hoffman is not an historically great golfer, so there is question over whether history can hold. And it does seem like this is the best chance we have had in quite a while to see someone climb back in the tournament from outside the top 10 and more than four back.
Today was the 5th time Charley Hoffman has beat the field scoring average by 7.5 shots. Combined score in following round: +7.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGC) April 7, 2017
Perhaps someone like McIlroy (E), Matt Kuchar (E), Rickie Fowler (1 over), Jon Rahm (1 over) or Justin Thomas (1 over) could do it? Any of those could be the one to run down Hoffman, but they’ll have to overcome a solid recent history to do so.
