With the PGA Championship well in the rearview and Scottie Scheffler back to Scottie Scheffler things with his T2 at the Charles Schwab Challenge last weekend, it's now time to look ahead to the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst. It's possible the RBC Canadian Open and next week's Memorial Tournament shift the odds board between now and then, but what's unlikely to change is the world's No. 1 golfer out in front as the favorite to win the third major of the year.
Pinehurst last hosted the U.S. Open in 2014 when Martin Kaymer ran away with the event. Before that, it was Michael Campbell over Tiger Woods in 2005 and Payne Stewart over Phil Mickelson in 1999. The 2024 field will be absolutely loaded, but clearly that does not guarantee that one of the biggest names in the game will come out holding the trophy.
This year's edition of the U.S. Open should see Pinehurst much firmer and faster than Valhalla played for the PGA Championship two weeks ago. That should make for a terrific, hotly contested championship with much lower numbers than we saw in Louisville.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the odds board for Pinehurst as we attempt to identify where there could be some value among those playing in the 2024 U.S. Open.
2024 U.S. Open odds
- Scottie Scheffler: 7/2
Normally, there are three or four golfers in this spot. This year is different, though, because Scheffler is a different dude. He's playing probably the best golf we have seen since Tiger Woods stopped playing his best golf -- at least statistically -- and that is fitting because these major championship odds are Tiger-like. I probably wouldn't take Scheffler at 7/2, but I do believe he's going to win Pinehurst by four or five.
- Rory McIlroy: 11-1
- Xander Schauffele: 12-1
- Jon Rahm: 14-1
- Viktor Hovland: 16-1
- Brooks Koepka: 16-1
- Ludvig Aberg: 16-1
- Collin Morikawa: 20-1
- Bryson DeChambeau: 20-1
As always, Koepka feels undervalued. He's a five-time major winner and finished T4 here in 2014. This venue also feels better suited for Schauffele than Valhalla, though I don't love the 12-1 odds. DeChambeau is interesting. He has arguably been the best player not named Scheffler at the first two majors -- both he and Schauffele are 22 under through eight rounds of majors this year -- and while I don't like Pinehurst as much as I liked Valhalla for him, there's a lot of value there at 20-1.
The same goes for Morikawa. He's playing solid golf and has been in the final pairing at each of the first two majors. The U.S. Open should theoretically be the best setup for him at majors, and 20-1 is too high.
- Patrick Cantlay: 25-1
- Will Zalatoris: 25-1
- Wyndham Clark: 28-1
- Joaquin Niemann: 28-1
- Cameron Smith: 28-1
- Max Homa: 30-1
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 35-1
- Justin Thomas: 35-1
- Jordan Spieth: 35-1
- Hideki Matsuyama: 35-1
- Dustin Johnson: 35-1
Zalatoris' last three U.S. Opens have been T6, missed cut and T2. He's been extraordinary at U.S. Opens in the past and has, at times, played excellent golf so far in 2024. I like him a lot at 25-1. I also like Smith at 28-1 because he will chip his face off around that golf course; as will Homa at 30-1 and Matsuyama at 35-1. Also, don't let J.T.'s putter get hot. He finished first in the field in strokes gained tee to green at the PGA Championship and nearly last in putting.
- Tyrrell Hatton: 40-1
- Tony Finau: 40-1
- Tommy Fleetwood: 40-1
- Cameron Young: 40-1
- Shane Lowry: 50-1
- Sam Burns: 50-1
- Sahith Theegala: 50-1
- Min Woo Lee: 50-1
- Jason Day: 50-1
Fleetwood is amazing at U.S. Opens (and Open Championships). He has three top fives at U.S. Opens (including last year) and stands as a real contender at this one. Lowry at 50-1 is intriguing here as well if he can maintain some of the momentum he seemed to find at Valhalla.
