What do you have to do to win the Masters? That’s the question everybody wants to know the answer to, right? Traditionally, the answer is “shoot four 70s ... that will get it done.” The average winning score in 80 previous Masters is 8.32 under par, and the most frequent winning score is 7 under.
Last year, 5 under won the tournament as Danny Willett fired a final-round 67 to take down Jordan Spieth and Lee Westwood by three strokes each. That was a bit of a recent anomaly, though. Zach Johnson won with a score of 1 over in 2007, but between that year and 2016 the average winner was 12 under.
Here is a look at the most common winning scores at all 80 Masters.
In both 2007 and 2016, weather played a big role in the final winning score. It was cold and nasty in 2007 when Johnson won. Johnson started the fourth round 5 over par. He won despite shooting a 76 in the third round which is pretty crazy. Retief Goosen fired two 76s to open the week that year and finished T2.
Last year the weather was not as brutal, but it was still cool and windy. The grounds dried out, and scoring became U.S. Open-like. Only four golfers were under par after 54 holes. The winner Willett shot just one round in the 60s.
This year, I expect that to flip. I expect a return to the recent binge of birdies and eagles and for golfers to have to shoot 10 under or better to even have a chance. One reason for this is the presumed weather at Augusta National next week. It’s supposed to rain. It’s supposed to be nice out. Scoring conditions will seemingly be perfect. A soft Augusta is dangerous with the way Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy are playing right now.
This could change, of course. But McIlroy, Johnson and other big boppers have to be licking their chops at the idea that they will be able to crush the rest of the 94-golfer field off the tee and have wedges into par 5s while others are hitting long irons. That doesn’t mean one of them will win, but it does mean the traditional scoring we’ve seen over the years will return.
The roars will likely be more bountiful than they were a year ago (when you heard mostly groans on Sunday), and some temperamental weather will make for what should be another incredible atmosphere on the weekend at Augusta.
