Saints Fantasy Football Preview: Is Alvin Kamara a first-round value after an injury-plagued 2019?

USA Today

With Drew Brees back, expect more of the same from the Saints: A hyper-efficient offense built around two of the best players in Fantasy. Emmanuel Sanders gives Brees a viable No. 2 wide receiver, but this is going to be the Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas show yet again. Why fix what isn't broken?

"He wasn't 100% the entire season. Whether it was a back, a knee, an ankle, whatever it was, he battled through it the best that he could.... [T]he guy is an ultimate competitor, he wants to be out there and help the team... Bottom line, his 75% might be someone else's 100% and that's why he was out there still trying to go."
RB coach Joel Thomas, on Alvin Kamara

2019 Review

Record: 13 - 3 (2)
PPG: 28.6 (4)
YPG: 373.9 (9)
Pass YPG: 265.3 (7)
Rush YPG: 108.6 (16)
PAPG: 36.3 (13)
RAPG: 25.3 (17)

2019 Fantasy finishes

QB: Drew Brees QB19
RB: Alvin Kamara RB9, Latavius Murray RB29
WR: Michael Thomas WR1, Ted Ginn* WR81
TE: Jared Cook TE7
*No longer with team

Number to know: 12

In 2019, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray combined for 12 total touchdowns. In each of the 2016, 2017 and 2018 seasons, Saints backs combined for at least 24 scores, and they totaled 18 in both 2014 and 2015, too. Taysom Hill's seven 2019 scores didn't help matters for Fantasy last year, but while his red-zone usage will likely remain, he's unlikely to back up his six receiving touchdowns on just 19 catches (or any rate resembling that). Even an optimistic Hill projection of four or five 2020 scores would suggest the combination of Kamara and Murray could add five or more touchdowns in 2020. That has negative implications for Drew Brees and players like Jared Cook, too.

2020 Offseason

Draft Picks

1. (24) Cesar Ruiz, C
3. (74) Zack Baun, LB
3. (105) Adam Trautman, TE
7. (240) Tommy Stevens, QB

Additions

WR Emmanuel Sanders, QB Jameis Winston, RB Ty Montgomery

Key Departures

S Vonn Bell, OG Larry Watford, WR Ted Ginn

Available Opportunity

6 carries, 12 RB targets, 60 WR targets, 4 TE targets

Rankings and Projections

Player	Jamey Eisenberg	Dave Richard	Heath Cummings
Drew Brees	QB11	QB7	QB11
Alvin Kamara	RB3	RB4	RB3
Latavius Murray	RB48	RB52	RB42
Michael Thomas	WR1	WR1	WR1
Emmanuel Sanders	WR50	WR45	WR56
Jared Cook	TE15	TE14	TE15
Saints DST	DST10	DST5	DST9

	Heath Cummings' projections
QB	Drew Brees	4,472 YD, 30 TD, 10 INT
RB	Alvin Kamara	985 YD, 9 TD; 86 REC, 731 YD, 4 TD
RB	Latavius Murray	648 YD, 5 TD; 31 REC, 216 YD, 1 TD
WR	Michael Thomas	164 TAR, 130 REC, 1,504 YD, 9 TD
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	79 TAR, 58 REC, 764 YD, 5 TD
WR	Tre'Quan Smith	40 TAR, 27 REC, 369 YD, 5 TD
TE	Jared Cook	74 TAR, 47 REC, 631 YD, 4 TD

Biggest Question

Will Alvin Kamara bounce back from an injury-plagued 2019?

A high-ankle sprain cost Kamara two games and sapped him of some explosiveness once he returned, which impacted his receiving yardage more than anything. But much of Kamara's 2019 stat line looked fine — his rushing efficiency and yardage were normal, plus he caught 81 balls for the third straight year. Touchdowns were the biggest culprit for his down season, as Kamara scored just six times after 31 across his first two seasons. That's unlikely to stick, and Kamara is trustworthy in Round 1.

One sleeper, one breakout and one bust

Sleeper

Latavius Murray RB

BUF Buffalo • #28
Age: 34 • Experience: 11 year

2019 Stats
RUYDS 637	REC 34	REYDS 235	TD 6	FPTS/G 9.8

Murray acquitted himself well as Kamara's handcuff when the lead back missed time, and he returns for his age-30 season at a Draft Day cost that makes him a worthwhile bench running back. There aren't many — if any — offenses more prolific in terms of generating running back Fantasy points, and if some of the Saints' offensive scores shift back toward running backs in 2020, Murray could find some stand-alone value. There aren't many good explanations for how late Murray goes, other than he's an unexciting, older player. Take advantage.

Breakout

Alvin Kamara RB

NO New Orleans • #41
Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs.

2019 Stats
RUYDS 797	REC 81	REYDS 533	TD 6	FPTS/G 17.6

The Saints are a top-heavy offense where terms like "breakout" are hard to apply, but while Kamara is already an established star, it wouldn't be surprising to see him produce a career season in 2020. Despite reported knee, ankle and back injuries costing him two games and sapping his explosiveness, Kamara caught 81 balls for the third straight season in 2019. His receptions per game, though, have risen each year, and Kamara has the potential to crest triple digits in a healthy 16 games. That type of receiving role along with what would likely be his first career 200-carry season and a reversion back to his pre-2019 touchdown production would give Kamara the closest statistical profile to Christian McCaffrey in the league.

Bust

Jared Cook TE

LAC L.A. Chargers • #87
Age: 37 • Experience: 14 yrs.

2019 Stats
REC 43	TAR 65	REYDS 705	TD 9	FPTS/G 11.9

Throw Emmanuel Sanders in here as well, but Cook goes higher in drafts. Cook caught just 43 balls in 2019 and only finished well in Fantasy thanks to nine touchdowns. That was his first season with more than five scores in his career, and he also dealt with concussions and watched as New Orleans drafted Adam Trautman as his heir apparent in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Meanwhile, Cook bested his previous career high of 9.4 yards per target by a substantial margin, finishing at 10.8 — his efficiency is due to regress across the board.

A big reason Cook saw just 65 targets is how difficult it is for secondary players to produce consistent Fantasy lines in an offense that revolves around Michael Thomas and Kamara. We did see in 2019 how more opportunity can open up when one of those two (Kamara in this case) isn't fully healthy, but with Sanders joining the mix for ancillary touches, it's hard to imagine either veteran on the wrong side of 30 being a consistent Fantasy option unless things go very wrong in New Orleans.