Mark Ingram was a success story last year for Fantasy owners.
So were Ben Roethlisberger, Jeremy Hill, Kelvin Benjamin and Travis Kelce.
What do they all have in common? They were some of the sleepers we
listed during our three-part series last season.
And now we're back to do it again. Our first sleeper's column is prior
to free agency and the NFL Draft, but these are 12 players who you might
want to put on your radar this summer.
We'll revisit this column again prior to training camp and then at the
end of August. The goal is to find as many late-round options as
possible to help you win your league.
You might be surprised to know that
Eli Manning
was No. 11 in Fantasy points in 2014 in standard leagues and just one
point behind
Matt Ryan for No. 10. Despite
his reputation for being a less-than-stellar Fantasy option, he's actually
been a Top 12 quarterback five times in the past seven years (he was No.
21 and 15 the past two seasons, respectively). Last year, Manning had nine
games with at least 20 Fantasy points. He benefitted immensely with the
addition of
Odell Beckham, and the hope
is
Victor Cruz (knee) will make a full
recovery in time for training camp. With Beckham, Cruz,
Rueben Randle and
Larry Donnell,
Manning should have the best receiving corps of his career. He attempted a
career-high 601 passes last season in new offensive coordinator Ben
McAdoo's system and completed a career-best 63.1 percent. Another season
of 4,400-plus yards and 30-plus touchdowns is definitely possible, and
Manning is a great quarterback to wait for on Draft Day with a late-round
pick.
The depth chart for New England's backfield is sure to change between now
and August, but the Patriots could conceivably go into the season with
LeGarrette Blount,
Jonas Gray,
James White and
Brandon Bolden as
their top guys.
Stevan Ridley and
Shane Vereen are free agents, but Blount might prove to be their best
running-downs rusher. In five games with the Patriots in 2014, Blount
averaged 4.7 yards per carry. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry in 2013, and
he ha s been successful when given a heavy workload. In 25 games with the
Patriots, including the playoffs, Blount has 10 games with at least 12
carries. In those outings he has double digits in Fantasy points six
times, including 14 total touchdowns. He's obviously not going to help in
PPR leagues with 12 combined catches the past two seasons, and he's still
a Bill Belichick running back, meaning plenty of uncertainty on a weekly
basis. But if he enters the season as the potential starter then he's well
worth a mid-round pick. Belichick obviously trusts him (he's lost three
fumbles in his past 319 carries), and when he touches the ball enough he
has a good chance to succeed in a big way.
Khiry Robinson's Fantasy value is almost directly tied to what
happens with Ingram, who is a free agent. Ingram had a career season in
2014 with 226 carries for 964 yards and nine touchdowns and 29 catches for
145 yards. He is expected to leave the Saints in search of a big payday,
and Robinson should be the next man up.
Pierre Thomas will likely remain a factor, but ESPN reported in January
that the Saints were ready to increase Robinson's role last year before he
suffered a fractured arm in Week 7 and missed seven games. He averaged 4.8
yards per carry last season and 4.5 yards per carry over two seasons in
New Orleans. When Ingram missed three games with a broken hand last year,
Robinson had 18 carries for 69 yards against Minnesota, eight carries for
87 yards and two catches for 18 yards at Dallas and 21 carries for 89
yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. He is a tough runner at 6-feet,
220 pounds, and New Orleans can definitely lean on him as Ingram's
replacement if that's what unfolds this offseason. If Robinson is the
starter for the Saints in 2015 he would definitely be worth a mid-round
pick in all standard formats.
We heard a lot of talk last season about the Tampa Bay coaching staff
being high on
Charles Sims, who was
selected in the third round of the NFL Draft last year from West Virginia.
The reports are already the same this offseason, according to ESPN, but
now Sims has to produce. An ankle injury kept him out for the first eight
games last season, but he finished with just 66 carries for 185 yards and
a touchdown and 19 catches for 190 yards. He had one game with a full
workload, which was Week 17 against New Orleans, and he played well with
18 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown and one catch for 6 yards.
Doug Martin should remain the starter this season, but Sims will
definitely get his share of touches. His value is likely higher in PPR
leagues, and he had four games of the eight he appeared in with at least
three catches. But if Martin continues to struggle (he averaged just 3.7
yards per carry last season) then Sims' role would definitely increase.
He's worth a late-round pick in all formats and could be a steal on Draft
Day.
Lorenzo Taliaferro might not be the ideal fit for new offensive
coordinator Marc Trestman's offense, but Trestman has said he plans to
build on what Gary Kubiak did last season. If that's true, and Trestman is
known more for his passing prowess then running success, then Taliaferro
could be a nice replacement option if
Justin Forsett
leaves the Ravens as a free agent. But regardless of what Trestman does,
and even if Forsett returns or another running back is brought in, the
Ravens will carve out some sort of role for Taliaferro this season. He was
drafted last year in the fourth round from Coastal Carolina, and he had
some positive production in limited work with 68 carries for 292 yards and
four touchdowns and eight catches for 114 yards before going on injured
reserve in Week 15 with a foot injury. He only has 35 catches in two years
in college and last year in the NFL, but he could be a beast between the
tackles at 6-feet, 226 pounds. We'll find out what the Ravens plan to do
with Forsett or another potential replacement, but I plan to gamble on
Taliaferro with a late-round pick in all standard leagues.
It would make sense for the Lions to move on from
Reggie Bush this offseason after he struggled with injuries and poor
play in 2014. He averaged a five-year low 3.9 yards per carry, and he was
limited to just 11 games. When Bush was out,
Theo Riddick showed he could be a quality playmaker out of the
backfield as a receiver, which would be a perfect complement to
Joique Bell. In Week 6 against Minnesota, with Bush out, Riddick had
five catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. And again in Week 8 at Atlanta
without Bush, Riddick had eight catches for 74 yards and a touchdown. He
had four games with five catches or more in limited playing time (he
finished with 34 catches for 316 yards and four touchdowns on the season),
but he could be a solid PPR option if he was No. 2 on the depth chart
behind Bell. His rushing numbers were non-existent (20 carries for 51
yards), but he could be a similar Fantasy option to Vereen or
Darren Sproles. He could easily reach 50 receptions if Bush is gone, and
60-plus catches in this offense is a definite possibility.
Last year's rookie receiver class was amazing and led by Beckham, Benjamin
and
Mike Evans. We also had strong
performances from
Sammy Watkins,
Jordan Matthews and
Martavis Bryant.
But quietly we saw
Jarvis Landry have a
nice season for the Dolphins. He was second among rookie receivers in
receptions with 84 (Beckham had 91) and was one of 17 receivers with
80-plus catches. He had five games with seven-plus catches, and he
finished with 758 yards and five touchdowns. We need to see more from
Landry to help Fantasy owners in standard leagues, and hopefully he
becomes more of a focal point this season than
Mike Wallace. They were close in targets (Wallace had 114, Landry had
112), but Wallace scored 10 touchdowns with 67 catches for 872 yards.
Landry should be considered a No. 3 receiver on Draft Day in all leagues,
but he has No. 2 potential in PPR formats. He could easily eclipse 90-plus
catches based on what we saw last season, and if he can approach 1,000
yards with 6-8 touchdowns we could be talking about one of the best value
picks of the draft.
The Jaguars receiving corps will look a little different this season with
Cecil Shorts gone as a free agent. We'll find out if
Justin Blackmon (suspension) is able to return and if Jacksonville adds
more talent to the position, but the Jaguars will likely go with
Allen Robinson,
Allen Hurns and
Marqise Lee as the top three targets for
Blake Bortles. We hope all these rookies from 2014 continue to grow
together, and Robinson showed plenty of promise last season before a
fractured foot ended his year in Week 10. He finished with 48 catches for
548 yards and two touchdowns on 81 targets, and he's expected to be ready
for the start of offseason workouts. Bortles should continue to improve in
his second year, and he should continue to rely on Robinson, who led the
team in targets before getting hurt. Most of his production came from Week
2 to Week 10 when he averaged 5.2 catches for 61 yards and 0.22
touchdowns. If you project that over 16 games, Robinson would have
averaged 83 catches for 976 yards and four touchdowns. That makes him a
solid No. 3 receiver coming into the year, but there's a chance for him to
emerge as a No. 2 option if he progresses as we expect.
Cody Latimer's Fantasy value this season is dependent on two
things:
Peyton Manning's future and
Wes Welker's free agent status. If Manning returns as expected that
should keep the Broncos' passing game at a high level, even with Manning
struggling down the stretch last season. And if Welker doesn't return to
the Broncos as expected then that opens the door for Latimer to get more
playing time. He barely saw the field as a rookie in 2014 with two catches
for 23 yards on four targets. But if Latimer can emerge as the No. 3
receiver for the Broncos behind
Demaryius Thomas
and
Emmanuel Sanders then he could have a
quality sophomore campaign. His stock would really sore if Thomas left as
a free agent, as well as tight end
Julius Thomas.
Latimer has plenty of upside based on how he played during the preseason
last year, but the Broncos didn't need him in 2014. That should change
this year, and he's a high-upside player to gamble on in all leagues with
a late-round pick.
Minnesota offensive coordinator Norv Turner told ESPN at the NFL Combine
that
Charles Johnson is "far and away our
best receiver." He showed flashes of his potential in 2014, but there's
plenty of room for improvement. And we think he'll thrive this season as
he enters his third year in the NFL. He finished last season with 31
catches for 475 yards and two touchdowns, but he really didn't get an
extended look until Week 11. He closed the season with 25 catches for 415
yards and two touchdowns in the final seven games, and if you project that
over 16 games he would have finished with 57 catches for 949 yards and
five touchdowns. Second-year quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater will continue to rely on Johnson, who was easily
better than Fantasy bust
Cordarrelle Patterson.
Johnson had four games with at least seven targets last year, and he
scored at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league in each one. I
plan to draft Johnson with a mid-round pick in all leagues as a No. 3
Fantasy receiver with No. 2 potential.
The Colts appear to have a need at receiver with
Reggie Wayne mulling retirement and
Hakeem Nicks
not expected to return as a free agent. That leaves an established star in
T.Y. Hilton, a breakout candidate in
Donte Moncrief
and
Duron Carter with a chance to be the
No. 3 guy. He spent the past two seasons in the CFL playing for the
Montreal Alouettes, and he caught 124 passes for 1,939 yards and 12
touchdowns. We're not sure how that will translate to the NFL, but he
definitely has some skill. He went to the CFL after dealing with
disciplinary and academic issues at Ohio State and Alabama, and he was
undrafted in the NFL, but he's the son of Hall of Fame receiver Cris
Carter. Hopefully there are some similar traits on the field for father
and son, and
Duron Carter should benefit
playing with an elite quarterback in
Andrew Luck.
We'll see how Carter fits in with his new team this offseason, but if he
clicks and can earn significant playing time then he'll definitely be
worth a late-round pick in all leagues.
Tight end is an easy position to define this season on Draft Day. You're
either going to take one early in
Rob Gronkowski
or
Jimmy Graham, gamble on a second-tier
type like Kelce,
Greg Olsen or
Martellus Bennett with a mid-round pick or just wait out the position to
see what falls to you in the later rounds. That's where
Austin Seferian-Jenkins comes in. He had a minimal impact last season as
a rookie with 21 catches for 221 yards and two touchdowns on 37 targets,
and he was limited by ankle and back injuries, the latter of which forced
him to injured reserve at the end of the season. New offensive coordinator
Dirk Koetter, who worked with
Tony Gonzalez
at the end of his career with the Falcons, expects to use Seferian-Jenkins
quite a bit as a complement to Evans and
Vincent Jackson. The Buccaneers will most likely have rookie Jameis
Winston or
Mike Glennon at quarterback,
so there could be some growing pains there, but Seferian-Jenkins is a
late-round tight end with upside. If he falters, you can cut him and start
streaming tight ends for the rest of the season.
