Fantasy Football Week 16 Running Back Preview: Projections, waiver adds, DFS plays, and more

It's been a roller coaster ride trying to capture Fantasy points from the Kansas City Chiefs' backfield, but for as long as he stays healthy we now expect Jerick McKinnon to level out as a Fantasy starter.

For what it's worth, the Chiefs have always treated McKinnon like their most valuable back. He's consistently ranked towards the top in terms of red zone snaps, and third-down snaps, and he's played the most whenever a game was in doubt. But we don't receive Fantasy points for snaps played, so outside of a two-game stretch with six catches, he'd mostly been an afterthought, at least until the last three weeks. 

In Week 13 against the Bengals, McKinnon finally scored his first touchdown, but that was easy enough to ignore because he only had 10 touches and 60 total yards. The following week against the Broncos he saw a season-high 13 touches and turned them into 134 yards and two scores. But even heading into last week's game against the Texans there was some reason for doubt, it looked more like an Isiah Pacheco game. 

A Pacheco fumble changed that and may have changed the fortunes for McKinnon's Fantasy managers. He tied a season-high with a 62% snap share, set a season-high with 18 touches, and again scored two touchdowns. This week, you'll see him as a consensus top-20 running back and a must-start option against the Seattle Seahawks. And if he can keep this up for two more weeks, he may be remembered as a league-winning waiver wire add as well.

Now let's get to the rest of the Week 16 RB Preview:

Week 16 RB Preview

Who's Out

Numbers to Know

Matchups That Matter

Waiver Wire Targets

DFS Plays

Projections

RB Preview

Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play in Week 16 at this time. Here's what it means:

Jonathan Taylor RB

IND Indianapolis • #28
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.

We expect Zack Moss and Deon Jackson to split work fairly evenly

RB Preview

Numbers to know

• 145.7 -- Christian McCaffrey is averaging 145 yards from scrimmage in the three games he's played with Brock Purdy.
• 892 -- Derrick Henry has 892 yards rushing in his last four games against the Texans.
• 23 -- Alvin Kamara saw 23 touches in Week 15, his most since Week 5. He could top that number in a terrible weather game in Cleveland.
• 78.6 -- Jerick McKinnon has scored 78.6 PPR Fantasy points over the last three weeks, second only to Christian McCaffrey at running back.
• 4 -- Najee Harris has four catches, for just 27 yards, over his last four games. He's a much better option in non-PPR.
• 37% -- Jamaal Williams hasn't played more than 37% of the snaps since Week 12. He only had one game below 37% from Week 3 through Week 12.

RB Preview

Matchups that matter

Matchups that Matter

Tyler Allgeier RB

ATL Atlanta • #25
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ BAL BAL -7.5 O/U 37.5

OPP VS RB 8th

PROJ PTS 7.4

RB RNK 37th

YTD Stats
RUYDS 743	REC 11	REYDS 84	TD 3	FPTS/G 8.9

Alvin Kamara RB

NO New Orleans • #41
Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ CLE CLE -2.5 O/U 32.5

OPP VS RB 30th

PROJ PTS 14.1

RB RNK 19th

YTD Stats
RUYDS 641	REC 53	REYDS 446	TD 3	FPTS/G 14.3

Joe Mixon RB

HOU Houston • #28
Age: 27 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ NE CIN -3.5 O/U 41.5

OPP VS RB 2nd

PROJ PTS 13.5

RB RNK 18th

YTD Stats
RUYDS 722	REC 48	REYDS 357	TD 8	FPTS/G 17

Derrick Henry RB

BAL Baltimore • #22
Age: 30 • Experience: 9 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs HOU TEN -5.5 O/U 37

OPP VS RB 32nd

PROJ PTS 16.5

RB RNK 2nd

YTD Stats
RUYDS 1303	REC 30	REYDS 379	TD 13	FPTS/G 19.5

Jerick McKinnon RB

KC Kansas City • #1
Age: 32 • Experience: 10 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs SEA KC -9.5 O/U 48.5

OPP VS RB 31st

PROJ PTS 12

RB RNK 17th

YTD Stats
RUYDS 274	REC 46	REYDS 429	TD 6	FPTS/G 10.9

Brian Robinson Jr. RB

WAS Washington • #8
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ SF SF -7 O/U 39.5

OPP VS RB 1st

PROJ PTS 8.7

RB RNK 34th

YTD Stats
RUYDS 652	REC 9	REYDS 60	TD 3	FPTS/G 9.9

RB Preview

Waiver Wire Targets

Week 16 Adds (RB Preview)

Zack Moss RB

CIN Cincinnati • #21
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs LAC LAC -4 O/U 46.5

OPP VS RB 27th

RB RNK 40th

ROSTERED 31%

YTD Stats
RUYDS 203	REC 7	REYDS 27	TD 0	FPTS/G 2.8

I truly hope you aren't dependent on a waiver wire add at running back this week. But if you are, Moss is likely the best option. He saw 24 carries in Week 15 and faces a Chargers defense that ranks dead last against the run. Still, there's a very low floor here as both Deon Jackson and Jordan Wilkins could possibly eat into Moss's role, or even lead the team in rushing.

Tyler Allgeier RB

ATL Atlanta • #25
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ BAL BAL -7.5 O/U 37.5

OPP VS RB 8th

RB RNK 37th

ROSTERED 62%

YTD Stats
RUYDS 743	REC 11	REYDS 84	TD 3	FPTS/G 8.9

If not for an awful matchup against the Ravens, Allgeier would be my favorite running back to add this week. He's played right around half the snaps in four of his past five games and has been very efficient with the touches he's received, averaging five yards per carry and catching 100% of the passes thrown his way. But the Ravens run defense is a juggernaut, so proceed with caution.

Chuba Hubbard RB

CAR Carolina • #30
Age: 24 • Experience: 4 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs DET DET -2.5 O/U 44.5

OPP VS RB 6th

RB RNK 32nd

ROSTERED 46%

YTD Stats
RUYDS 260	REC 11	REYDS 118	TD 2	FPTS/G 4.9

Hubbard has been the better Panthers back each of the past two weeks, but surprisingly the Lions present a difficult challenge. They haven't allowed a running back to score double-digit PPR Fantasy points since Week 7. If one of the Panthers backs is going to break that streak, we'd bet on Hubbard.

Stashes (RB Preview)

Jordan Mason RB

SF San Francisco • #24
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs WAS SF -7 O/U 39.5

OPP VS RB 5th

RB RNK NR

ROSTERED 28%

YTD Stats
RUYDS 217	REC 0	REYDS 0	TD 0	FPTS/G 1.7

Mason is the clear No. 2 behind Christian McCaffrey with Elijah Mitchell out of the picture. We all know McCaffrey's injury history, and Mason now appears to be just one injury away from 15-plus touches per game in an offense that has been even more RB-centric with Brock Purdy at quarterback.

RB Preview

DFS Plays

Top DFS Play

Christian McCaffrey RB

SF San Francisco • #23
Age: 27 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs WAS SF -7 O/U 39.5

OPP VS RB 5th

PROJ PTS 22.1

RB RNK 1st

YTD Stats
RUYDS 927	REC 74	REYDS 623	TD 11	FPTS/G 21.2

If you can find enough value to squeeze in Christian Mccaffrey and Derrick Henry, that would be awesome. But odds are you're going to have to make a choice and I lean ever so slightly to McCaffrey because of his role in this passing game and enormous role since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback.

Contrarian DFS Play

Alvin Kamara RB

NO New Orleans • #41
Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ CLE CLE -2.5 O/U 32.5

OPP VS RB 30th

PROJ PTS 14.1

RB RNK 19th

YTD Stats
RUYDS 641	REC 53	REYDS 446	TD 3	FPTS/G 14.3

Kamara has not been particularly good lately and this game is threatening to set a record for the lowest over/under in history, but he might also get 30 touches in terrible weather against an awful run defense. If you wanted to face McCaffrey and Henry for a guy below five percent roster rate, Kamara is the choice.

RB Preview

Heath's Projections