Projections can be a useful tool when used right, but there are also issues with boiling down all the factors that influence a player's expectation into a single number.
Whenever two projections are close enough that they could be swayed by a few extra opportunities -- an extra target here, an extra rush attempt there -- it's hard to put much weight on the minor differences. But there is plenty of value in considering which players have projections with a significant gap between them, or who comes in well above or below their Average Draft Position, and why.
One easy way to look at projections is in tiers, grouping together the players that came out with Fantasy point totals within the same ballpark. Below are Heath Cummings' and Ben Gretch's projections tiers for quarterbacks for both 6-point passing touchdown and 4-point passing touchdown scoring systems.
The below tiers are purely where the players come out in a "most likely" scenario. Typically projections assume reasonable health, and by their nature they don't do a good job of capturing upside or downside, all of which are important context that should be applied to the below player groupings. While projections aren't Draft rankings -- you can find Heath's ranks, along with Jamey Eisenberg's and Dave Richard's, on our Draft Prep page -- the tiers do provide a useful baseline to consider player value.
Heath Cummings' 6-point passing TD QB tiers
| 400-plus points | 375-385 points | 360-375 points |
| Patrick Mahomes | Aaron Rodgers | Carson Wentz |
| DeShaun Watson |
| Cam Newton |
|
| Baker Mayfield |
|
|
|
| 345-355 points | 325-340 points | 300-320 points |
| Jameis Winston | Tom Brady | Jimmy Garoppolo |
| Jared Goff | Russell Wilson | Derek Carr |
| Mitchell Trubisky | Drew Brees | Jacoby Brissett |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Kyler Murray | Kirk Cousins |
| Lamar Jackson | Philip Rivers | Sam Darnold |
| Matt Ryan | Josh Allen |
|
| Dak Prescott |
|
|
Heath Cummings' 4-point passing TD QB tiers
| 350-plus points | 325-335 points | 310-320 points |
| Deshaun Watson | Patrick Mahomes | Carson Wentz |
| Cam Newton | Lamar Jackson |
| Aaron Rodgers | Baker Mayfield |
|
| Jameis Winston |
|
| Mitchell Trubisky |
|
|
|
| 295-305 points | 285-290 points | 260-280 points |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Tom Brady | Jacoby Brissett |
| Dak Prescott | Drew Brees | Jimmy Garoppolo |
| Kyler Murray | Philip Rivers | Derek Carr |
| Matt Ryan |
| Marcus Mariota |
| Jared Goff |
| Sam Darnold |
| Josh Allen |
| Kirk Cousins |
| Russell Wilson |
|
|
Ben Gretch's 6-point passing TD QB tiers
| 425-plus points | 375-385 points | 355-365 points |
| Patrick Mahomes | Deshaun Watson | Cam Newton |
| Aaron Rodgers | Carson Wentz |
|
| Jameis Winston |
|
| Baker Mayfield |
|
| Russell Wilson |
|
|
|
| 340-350 points | 325-340 points | 300-320 points |
| Jared Goff | Lamar Jackson | Kirk Cousins |
| Matt Ryan | Ben Roethlisberger | Andy Dalton |
| Drew Brees | Mitchell Trubisky | Jimmy Garoppolo |
| Kyler Murray | Philip Rivers | Jacoby Brissett |
| Tom Brady | Dak Prescott | Matthew Stafford |
Ben Gretch's 4-point passing TD QB tiers
| 360-plus points | 340-345 points | 320-330 points |
| Patrick Mahomes | Deshaun Watson | Cam Newton |
|
| Aaron Rodgers |
|
| Jameis Winston |
|
|
|
| 310-315 points | 290-305 points | 270-290 |
| Kyler Murray | Jared Goff | Tom Brady |
| Carson Wentz | Matt Ryan | Philip Rivers |
| Baker Mayfield | Mitchell Trubisky | Kirk Cousins |
| Russell Wilson | Drew Brees | Jimmy Garoppolo |
| Lamar Jackson | Ben Roethlisberger | Andy Dalton |
| Dak Prescott | Jacoby Brissett |
