The offseason storyline in Jacksonville is seemingly unchanged from a year ago. A sampling: 

  • "Improved offensive line." 
  • "The defense is actually going to be good this year." 
  • "This is the year Blake Bortles takes a step forward." 
  • "We would really like to run the ball more." 

It's no different in 2017. 

At least, the talk is no different. Could it actually be true this time? Sure. But I wouldn't bet on it being a lot different.

The one thing that is definitely different is the running back situation, because the Jaguars took Leonard Fournette with the No. 4 pick in the draft. Fournette ran for 3,830 yards (6.2 YPC) and 40 touchdowns in three seasons at LSU and there is no question he's an exceptionally talented running back. 

But if everything doesn't improve around him how much will that matter? Could he flop like Todd Gurley did in 2016?

He absolutely could, but that shouldn't be the expectation. Fournette will get volume and has a realistic floor of a top-25 back barring injury. His ceiling is a top-five running back in Fantasy. I would prefer to take him in the third round, but would expect you'll have to reach into the second if you want him.

Even if Fournette isn't necessarily safe, he's still the safest part of this offense. 

*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Player Name Expected FP Position Rank Expected PPR FP Position Rank
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Leonard Fournette JAC RB
179.3 #12 207.3 #14
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Allen Robinson JAC WR
156.8 #13 231.8 #16
player headshot
Marqise Lee JAC WR
100.7 #56 159.7 #56
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Blake Bortles JAC QB
298.3 #20 298.3 #20
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Allen Hurns JAC WR
92.6 #66 141.6 #68

Breaking down the touches

Jacksonville has thrown the ball at least 607 times while running the ball fewer than 400 times each of the past two seasons. They, of course, threw it more in 2016 despite reports of an improved defense and run game. Still, they're saying they want to run the ball more this year and they drafted a running back in the first round, so I'm going to assume they'll be more run-heavy in 2016. I've dropped the projected pass attempted to 560 and bumped up their rush attempts to 430. 

The loss of 60 targets would have an impact on the Jacksonville pass catchers, but I don't know how much it hurts Allen Robinson. The Jaguars threw the ball 125 times to their tight ends last year, but the loss of Julius Thomas means Marcedes Lewis and Mychal Rivera are their options right now. I don't see those two demanding the same attention. If Jacksonville doesn't sign a tight end they won't have one who is relevant in Fantasy.

Jaguars touches
Player RuSHARE RuATT ReSHARE TGT REC TD
Leonard Fournette 60% 258 7% 40 29 8
T.J. Yeldon 12% 50 9% 49 35 1
Chris Ivory 15% 64 18% 11 7 1
Allen Robinson 0% 0 26% 144 75 8
Marqise Lee 0% 0 18% 101 59 4
Allen Hurns 0% 0 17% 95 49 4
Marcedes Lewis 0% 0 13% 72 43 3

Of note:

  • Yeldon and Ivory were not ranked above as Fantasy assets because they aren't really draftable. Even if Fournette gets hurt, they'll share the role, and we saw how uninspiring that combination was last year. In a deep best ball format, Yeldon could be worth a PPR flier.
  • One of Marqise Lee or Allen Hurns could step up and be No. 3 Fantasy receiver. I'd bet on Lee because he was better last year, but Hurns has big play ability as well.

The Leftovers

The team also drafted Dede Westbrook in June, but it's hard to see a path to playing time for him without at least one injury. As a senior at Oklahoma he caught 80 passes for 1,524 yards and 17 touchdowns, so there is potential there, but there's also a logjam of young receivers in front of him. For now Westbrook is a late-round stash in dynasty formats only.