The 2024 NFL Combine was a great reminder that each and every year the NFL is bringing some exceptional athletes into the mix. This year we saw Xavier Worthy set a Combine record with a 40-yard dash timed at 4.21 seconds, while Isaac Guerendo put up arguably the most impressive combine performance of all time, dominating athletic testing across the board.
These two players are a good example of how I react to the Combine. Worthy was already my WR5 in this class and I had him at pick 11 in my first run of rookie rankings. Post-Combine, he's still WR5, but he is now up to 1.09 in the rankings below. Part of the reason he didn't move up more is because it was a pretty great weekend for Troy Franklin, Brian Thomas, and Adonai Mitchell as well. The combine did nothing to dispel the notion that this is an elite wide receiver class.
As for Guerendo, well, he wasn't on my radar before the Combine. He's already 23 years old and he set a career-high last year with 810 rushing yards. He's on the radar now, but not as a pick in the first two rounds. I'm assuming he will be a Day 3 pick in the NFL Draft, and a Round 3 pick in rookie drafts. But I do appreciate him making our draft boards a little bit deeper with his remarkable performance in Indianapolis.
The Combine is not useless, but you shouldn't overreact to what happens there or doesn't. Note that Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison, and Jayden Daniels didn't hurt their stock at all with their lack of participation. Malahi Corley may have. I wanted to see the stand-out from Western Kentucky, and he may have been in Round 2 below if he had shown up and showed out. Now we'll be hoping he's a successful third-round dart throw. Don't be surprised if you hear him compared to Puka Nacua or Tank Dell before we get to April.
Round 1
1.01 Caleb Williams, QB, USC
1.02 Marvin Harrison, Jr., WR, OSU
1.03 Jayden Daniels QB, LSU
1.04 Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
1.05 Drake Maye, QB, UNC
1.06 Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
1.07 Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
1.08 Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
1.09 Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
1.10 Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
1.11 J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
1.12 Blake Corum, RB, Michigan
The first round includes the same 12 players that it did before the combine, but both Worthy and Thomas moved up a couple of spots. I still think it is likely that we end up with two running backs who have a top-12 rookie ADP by May, and I'm leaving Corum there for now due to his connection to the best job available (Chargers) but it is getting more difficult to see who falls out of the top 12. Seemingly all the wide receivers in first-round consideration who showed up at the Combine helped themselves at the combine, including the first two listed in my brand new Round 2.
Round 2
2.01 Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
2.02 Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
2.03 Trey Benson, RB, FSU
2.04 Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas
2.05 Marshawn Lloyd, RB, USC
2.06 Michael Penix, QB, Washington
2.07 Braelon Allen, RB, Wisconsin
2.08 Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee
2.09 Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan
2.10 Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
2.11 Keon Coleman, WR, FSU
2.12 Theo Johnson, TE, PSU
Assuming two running backs find good landing spots in Round 2, it looks to me like we have a solid 15 first-round picks in a Superflex rookie drafted. That's at least partially because of how well Mitchell and McConkey showed at the Combine. Once you get past them there is a glut of running backs who are nearly impossible to separate until we know landing spots. I feel the most confident about Benson, Brooks, and Lloyd eventually becoming good NFL running backs, but due to Brooks' ACL injury we may have to wait until 2025 to see him at his best.
