As expected, the Chiefs offense regressed last season— they were only the fifth best in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes missing most of three games. Then they went out and added Clyde Edwards-Helaire with a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, giving them another potential elite playmaker for Andy Reid to play with. And, with Damien Williams opting out as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic, Edwards-Helaire has a chance to be one of the elite backs in Fantasy as a rookie.
2019 Review
Record: 12 - 4 (5)
PPG: 28.2 (5)
YPG: 379.2 (6)
Pass YPG: 281.1 (5)
Rush YPG: 98.1 (23)
PAPG: 36.0 (15)
RAPG: 23.4 (27)
2019 Fantasy finishes
QB: Patrick Mahomes QB5
RB: Damien Williams RB37, LeSean McCoy RB40
WR: Tyreek Hill WR32, Sammy Watkins WR49
TE: Travis Kelce TE1
Number to know: 114
That's how many points the Chiefs fell off from 2018's league-leading mark. It might sound like a lot, but it's pretty comparable to what happened with the Broncos coming off their historic 2013; they only fell from first in scoring to second, but it was a 124-point drop off. You should always bet against historically great offenses sustaining that pace from one year to the next, however there are also reasons to think the Chiefs will be better in 2020 than 2019. For one, you hope Patrick Mahomes doesn't miss two games and most of another. The more important reason, however, might be the addition of first-round running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the continued development of Mecole Hardman. The Chiefs should be the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 offense in 2020; if you could guarantee that Hardman or Edwards-Helaire becomes a consistent contributor, I might take them over the field.
2020 Offseason
Draft Picks
1. (32) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB
2. (63) Willie Gay Jr., LB
3. (96) Lucas Niang, OT
4. (138) L'Jarius Sneed, S
5. (177) Michael Danna, DE
7. (237) Thakarius Keyes, CB
Additions
OL Mike Remmer
Key Departures
DB Kendall Fuller, LeSean McCoy, DL Emmanuel Ogbah
Available Opportunity
118 carries, 41 RB targets, 2 WR targets, 15 TE targets
Rankings and Projections
| Player |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB1 | QB1 | QB1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB6 | RB6 | RB8 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR4 | WR4 | WR4 |
| Mecole Hardman | N/A | N/A | WR58 |
| Travis Kelce | TE1 | TE1 | TE1 |
| Chiefs DST | DST7 | DST10 | DST18 |
| Heath Cummings' projections | ||
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | 4,812 YD, 35 TD, 12 INT; 223 Rush YD, 2 TD |
| RB | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 875 YD, 9 TD; 58 REC, 441 YD, 4 TD |
| RB | Dwayne Washington | 452 YD, 4 TD; 14 REC, 106 YD, 1 TD |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | 122 TAR, 80 REC, 1,229 YD, 8 TD |
| WR | Sammy Watkins | 75 TAR, 44 REC, 603 YD, 5 TD |
| WR | Mecole Hardman | 75 TAR, 45 REC, 724 YD, 5 TD |
| TE | Travis Kelce | 139 TAR, 97 REC, 1,247 YD, 7 TD |
Biggest Question
Just how good can Edwards-Helaire be?
The Chiefs made Edwards-Helaire the first back off the board in Round 1 of the draft, and his pass-catching ability makes him a perfect fit for their offense. Andy Reid reportedly sees him as a better version of Brian Westbrook, and Edwards-Helaire could be a Fantasy force right out of the gate. With Damien Williams out of the picture, CEH figures to be the No. 1 back from the word go, and an elite Fantasy option. But don't forget about Dwayne Washington, a fine pass catcher in his own right who was a must-start option when he got the chance with the Raiders last season.
One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
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The battle to be the No. 2 wide receiver in Kansas City will be a key one to watch, as our Ben Gretch noted, because there's huge potential for Fantasy as a downfield threat in this offense. Hardman didn't get many opportunities as a rookie, but he came exactly as advertised, providing a jolt of Tyreek Hill-ian energy every time he touched the ball. There is an unfair amount of speed on this offense, and if Hardman gets even 90 targets, he may just be a must-start Fantasy option.
Edwards-Helaire had settled in as a second- or even third-round pick in some drafts in July, and if you drafted early and snagged him, congratulations; you may have just won your league. Maybe Washington takes on a bigger role than expected, but if you want to know what the upside here is, just remember how productive Kareem Hunt was in this offense as a rookie. Andy Reid is like a cheat code for Fantasy scoring, and if Edwards-Helaire is the unquestioned starter like we expect, there's no real ceiling on how good he can be, given his three-down skill set.
Bust pick — Uh ... no
Well, it was Edwards-Helaire, before this. Now, it's all about nit-picking with a slew of elite options. Maybe the undersized Edwards-Helaire isn't ready for a true No. 1 workload? Maybe Travis Kelce starts to slow down in his 30s? Maybe Tyreek Hill's injuries crop up again? Maybe Patrick Mahomes is only the fourth-best quarterback. There's downside for every player, but given the type of talents we're talking about in this system, it's hard to see how things go sideways. I'm not going to put my name down for anyone busting here; I'm not that much of a risk taker.
Fantasy Previews
AFC East: Bills | Jets | Patriots | Dolphins
NFC East: Giants | Cowboys | Eagles | Redskins
AFC South: Colts | Texans | Jaguars | Titans
NFC South: Panthers | Bucs | Falcons | Saints
AFC North: Ravens | Steelers | Browns | Bengals
NFC North: Packers | Vikings | Bears | Lions
AFC West: Chiefs | Broncos | Raiders | Chargers
NFC West: Seahawks | 49ers | Rams | Cardinals
So what Fantasy football sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which WR1 candidate can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that was all over Derrick Henry's huge season, and find out.
