In a draft already light on picks, the Bears traded up to nab running back David Montgomery, who they'll pair with Human Joystick Tarik Cohen and free agent acquisition Mike Davis to create a dynamic backfield. Mitchell Trubisky's year two improvements bode well for the future of a balanced passing attack that featured four players with more than 75 targets in 2018.
2018 Review
Record: 12 - 4 (3rd in NFL)
PPG: 26.3 (9)
YPG: 343.9 (21)
Pass YPG: 222.8 (21)
Rush YPG: 121.1 (11)
PAPG: 32 (24)
RAPG: 29.3 (6)
2018 Fantasy finishes
QB: Mitchell Trubisky - QB15
RB: Tarik Cohen - RB12; Jordan Howard* - RB20
WR: Allen Robinson - WR40; Taylor Gabriel - WR41; Anthony Miller - WR60
TE: Trey Burton - TE8
*No longer with team
Number to know: 7.2
That's how many percentage points Mitchell Trubisky's completion percentage increased from his rookie season to his first year playing in Matt Nagy's offense. Trubisky threw interceptions at a slightly higher rate, but improved every other relevant passing statistic, including nearly doubling his touchdown rate and adding nearly a yard per attempt.
2019 Offseason
"He's the whole package. He has the hands. He's a three-down back. He's everything we were looking for." - Matt Nagy, on David Montgomery
Head Coach: Matt Nagy (2nd year)
Offensive Coordinator: Mark Helfrich (2nd year)
Draft Picks
3. (73) David Montgomery, RB
4. (126) Riley Ridley, WR
6. (205) Duke Shelley, CB
7. (222) Kerrith Whyte Jr., RB
7. (238) Stephen Denmark, CB
Additions
RB Mike Davis, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Marvin Hall, DB Buster Skrine, DB HaHa Clinton-Dix, K Eddy Pineiro
Key Departures
RB Jordan Howard, RB Benny Cunningham, WR Josh Bellamy, WR Kevin White, TE Daniel Brown, OL Eric Kush, DB Adrian Amos, DB Bryce Callahan
Rankings and Projections
| Player |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | QB20 | QB20 | QB12 |
| Tarik Cohen | RB22 | RB30 | RB15 |
| David Montgomery | RB28 | RB24 | RB28 |
| Allen Robinson | WR34 | WR37 | WR36 |
| Anthony Miller | WR50 | WR45 | N/A |
| Trey Burton | TE17 | TE16 | TE12 |
| Eddy Pineiro | K32 | N/A | N/A |
| Chris Blewitt | N/A | N/A | K32 |
| Bears DST | DST1 | DST1 | DST1 |
| Heath Cummings' projected offensive stats | |
| 3796 YD, 26 TD, 13 INT; 467 Rush YD, 3 TD | |
| 203 ATT, 851 YD, 7 TD; 29 REC, 230 YD, 1 TD | |
| 99 ATT, 426 YD, 4 TD; 71 REC, 619 YD, 4 TD | |
| 109 TAR, 62 REC, 859 YD, 6 TD | |
| 68 TAR, 43 REC, 545 YD, 5 TD | |
| 78 TAR, 52 REC, 601 YD, 3 TD | |
| 78 TAR, 55 REC, 562 YD, 5 TD | |
Biggest Question
Is Anthony Miller the Bears' best WR?
"Miller led the Bears with seven receiving touchdowns as a rookie despite dislocating his shoulder multiple times during the season. He's coming back from labrum surgery and has predicted a 12-touchdown season. While his upside isn't quite that high, Miller's versatility, speed and big hands give him the best all-around game among the Bears' deep receiving corps." - Dave Richard
One sleeper, one breakout, and one bust
Sleeper: Allen Robinson
Guys with 1,400-yard, 14-touchdown seasons on their resumes rarely qualify as sleepers, but these days Robinson is going in the WR3 range at the end of the sixth round. Despite playing just 13 games in his first season with Chicago, Robinson led the team in targets, averaging 7.2 per game. He notched 13 more in the Bears' playoff game, stepping up with 10 catches for 143 yards and a score. While the Bears did spread the ball around, Robinson was more of a No. 1 than he got credit for, and the perception of him as a disappointment is mostly due to missing three games, posting his best game when it didn't matter for Fantasy, and a bit of bad touchdown luck with just four regular season scores. If we include the playoff game and pace to 16 games, we're looking at 122 targets, 74 receptions, 1,025 yards -- a WR20 PPR season even with depressed touchdowns instead of his actual WR40 finish. Pretty solid line given receivers often struggle to assimilate in their first season with a new team, and the optimistic interpretation is he could build on it in 2019. He's a good buy low at a depressed ADP.
Breakout: David Montgomery
Montgomery is fairly valued in drafts given free agent acquisition Mike Davis will likely be involved on early downs and Tarik Cohen is a fixture in the passing game. But the rookie from Iowa State was a clear target for the Bears, as they traded up to nab him in the third round with their first 2019 selection. Given the Khalil Mack trade and a trade up in the 2018 draft to select Anthony Miller left them with little firepower in 2019, it's hard to ignore that decision. There is plenty of available opportunity with Jordan Howard no longer in town, and the team is saying all the right things about Montgomery's skill set and ability to be a three-down back. In a good offense, that gives him big potential.
Bust: Anthony Miller
Where Robinson's season was a bit underrated, Miller's was probably overrated. Miller led the team with seven touchdown receptions, but he finished with just 54 targets, well behind Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and Cohen. And his opportunity dwindled down the stretch - he saw just six targets in the team's final five games, before a five-target game in the playoffs. He could certainly take a step forward in year two, and he's not expensive in drafts, but it's a crowded pass-catching room and Miller appeared to be the odd man out last year. There are better reserve wide receiver options for Fantasy.
So which Fantasy Football busts should you avoid in your draft? And which superstar QB isn't a trustworthy QB1 option? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Allen Robinson's disappointing season, and find out.
