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Despite yet another May swoon, and despite an utter lack of plate discipline, Matt Kemp has had a good season in Fantasy so far. With Saturday evening's trade that will send him to the Braves, it's reasonable to expect his season to take a turn for the worse.
Playing for the Padres, Kemp hasn't had the benefit of a deep lineup or a home park conducive to high levels of offense, but in spite of those obstacles, he has hit 23 home runs and driven in 69 runs in 100 games. The Braves clearly sport an inferior lineup, and at least for this season, Turner Field has been less conducive to home runs for right-handed hitters than PETCO Park has been. The schedule in general does not bode well for Kemp, who has hit only eight of his homers at PETCO this season. Between now and the end of the schedule, the Braves have only two series at good home run parks -- at Miller Park and Citizens Bank Park.
Especially given how infrequently Kemp gets on base, it's hard to see him keeping up his current pace of run production. Up until now, he has been a top 25 outfielder in both points and categories formats, but going forward, he becomes a fringy option in standard mixed leagues with three outfielder slots. It may be worth your while to sell Kemp to an owner looking for a power bat, but you could have a hard time getting reasonable value for him.
Presumably, Kemp would take over left field in Atlanta, so he won't be supplanting anyone with mixed league value. In deeper leagues, a number of players could be affected, most notably Jeff Francoeur and Jace Peterson.
A much greater impact will be felt in San Diego, where the vacancy in right field will have to be filled. When the Padres traded Melvin Upton to the Blue Jays on Tuesday, general manager A.J. Preller told reporters that outfield prospects Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe would not likely be recalled until September. Given the lack of outfield depth on the Padres' roster, one has to wonder if Preller will rethink that stance. If he does, both the speedy Margot and the powerful Renfroe would deserve consideration in standard mixed Rotisserie leagues.
Should the Padres keep both prospects down on the farm, the largest playing time beneficiary would probably be Christian Bethancourt. With the rumored departure of starting catcher Derek Norris, Bethancourt is due to receive more starts one way or another, and his ability to play the outfield just increases the odds of a significant gain in playing time. Bethancourt's poor plate discipline rivals that of Kemp's, but with five homers in 120 at-bats, he has shown a bit of pop this season. If he winds up playing everyday, splitting time at catcher and outfield, that would make him worth a look in mixed two-catcher leagues.
As for Hector Olivera, the player the Braves are sending to the Padres, Fantasy owners should have minimal expectations. He could be in the Padres' lineup as soon as Tuesday, when he returns from his suspension for domestic violence. However, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Padres may designate Olivera for assignment.
