Gerrit Cole is still undergoing testing on his right elbow injury, but we learned through reports Wednesday that he is probably going to miss the first month of the 2024 season … at least.
According to reporting from the New York Post, initial testing on Cole's right elbow has the Yankees looking at a 1-2 month timetable for his return to pitching, but he isn't out of the woods yet. While imaging viewed by both Yankees doctors and sports surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache has not shown a tear in his UCL, ElAttrache has still requested an in-person visit with Cole. Which feels pretty ominous, and complicates the "1-2 month timetable" when considering whether to draft Cole in your Fantasy Baseball leagues this season.
Because, while Cole could just be back by May and be no worse for the wear, that's certainly not the only possible outcome here, and it may not even be the most likely one. We're still dealing with a lot of uncertainty around Cole's injury, and even if the Yankees come out today or tomorrow with a statement confirming the Post's report, it wouldn't really add much certainty to his outlook for the rest of the season. According to The Athletic, Cole does have inflammation in his elbow joint despite the MRI showing no tear in his UCL, and Cole wants to get "another, and perhaps deeper, look at the injury."
What that specifically means isn't necessarily clear at this point, but it's not hard to imagine it could mean an exploratory surgery at some point down the line if the injury doesn't heal as expected. We saw something similar with Walker Buehler back in 2022, who had an exploratory surgery that ultimately revealed that he would require Tommy John surgery. That's not to say the same thing is likely to happen with Cole, but given the seeming uncertainty around the cause of the injury, it seems like at least one potential path forward.
Of course, Cole could be back sometime in May, too. Just because there's that uncertainty doesn't mean the worst-case scenario will come to pass. When it comes to pitching injuries, you're often better off assuming the worst, but it doesn't always come to pass. Which is why I won't be completely burying Cole in my rankings in light of this latest report. We'll hopefully have a better sense of what to expect in the coming days, but for now, I'm dropping him to the same range of the draft where a bunch of other injured pitchers are at – 154 in my Roto rankings, just behind Justin Verlander (shoulder), Walker Buehler (Tommy John recovery, inning management), and Sonny Gray (hamstring), and just ahead of Kodai Senga (shoulder).
Cole is behind Verlander and Gray because both look like they should be ready shortly after Opening Day, and Buehler who isn't actually injured right now; Buehler is having his start to the season delayed to help manage his innings after he barely pitched last season. He's already faced live batters a few times this spring, and while he likely won't pitch in any exhibition games, I'm hoping he can be ready to go around the start of May.
Cole vs. Senga is an interesting one. They might have similar timetables, but Senga is likely to begin throwing sometime in the next week, while we just don't know when Cole might; however, Cole is the significantly better pitcher when both are healthy, so I'm okay keeping him a spot ahead.
It's a significant downgrade for Cole, who was a first-round pick in my rankings before the injury and went 58th overall in a mock draft we did Tuesday night, when we had no idea what kind of prognosis Cole was facing. Now that we have word that Cole is likely to miss at least a month, if not more, it's an appropriate downgrade, though it's worth noting that if we get more bad news in the coming days, even a mid-round pick might end up being too generous for Cole.
It's frustrating for those of us who had already drafted Cole this season, but it doesn't mean his season is over. It just means his chances of being that impact Fantasy arm have taken a significant hit. Let's just hope we don't get any more bad news out of Cole's elbow.
