When the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee released a bracket preview of the 2024 NCAA Tournament's top 16 teams on Feb. 17, it was Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona penciled in as the No. 1 seeds. While all four teas are expected to be among the top two seed lines entering Selection Sunday, others have joined the debate as well.
Most notable among that group is North Carolina, which had won seven straight games since that date (eight-game winning streak overall) with a road victory over Duke notable among them. That's before the Tar Heels lost in the ACC Tournament championship on Saturday. Iowa State destroyed Houston in the Big 12 Tournament championship on Saturday night, while Marquette and Tennessee joined Arizona in getting eliminated from their respective conference tournaments early.
So, who will end up on the No. 1 line when the 2024 March Madness bracket is revealed? We will find out when the full field of 68 is revealed Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on the 2024 NCAA Tournament Selection Show live on CBS.
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Keep on reading for CBS Sports Bracketology expert Jerry Palm's top seed projections along with a breakdown of how our college basketball experts would vote if they were members of the committee.
NCAA Tournament Bracketology projection
Here's how Palm has projected the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Check out his complete Bracketology here.
| No. 1 seed | Record | NET | Q1 | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31-3 | 2 | 12-3 | 27 | |
| 29-4 | 3 | 12-3 | 6 | |
| 30-4 | 1 | 16-3 | 14 | |
| 27-6 | 7 | 9-3 | 35 |
NCAA Tournament expert picks
Here's how our college basketball staff would vote if they were on the selection committee.
Gary Parrish: After what happened Saturday, it's clear UConn should be the No. 1 overall seed and placed in the East. Purdue will be the No. 1 seed in the Midwest. Houston will be the No. 1 seed in the West. And Iowa State should be the No. 1 seed in the West. Could it be North Carolina or Tennessee instead? Sure, I guess. But the Cyclones just finished second in the best league in the country (Big 12) and then won that league's conference tournament by beating the regular-season champion (Houston) by 28 points in the title game. Moreover, Iowa State is 16-7 in the first two quadrants with 10 Quadrant 1 wins, only one loss outside of Q1 and a perfect mark in the latter quadrants. Trust me when I tell you this: There are not four teams in the sport with better bodies of work than that. And that's why ISU should be the fourth No. 1 seed when Adam Zucker unveils the bracket on CBS.
Matt Norlander: Stay tuned.
Kyle Boone: The fourth and final No. 1 seed could be any of North Carolina, Tennessee or Iowa State, and the committee has a tough choice to make there. I went with the Cyclones given how they closed the weekend and considering their body of work. They stated their case in emphatic fashion Saturday with a 69-41 win over No. 1 seed Houston in the Big 12 Tournament championship to move to 10 Quadrant 1 wins. ISU also had six wins over top 25 teams on the season, including two over Houston, one over a top-10 Kansas team one over a top-20 TCU on the road. The Big 12 clearly produced two of the four best teams in the sport leading into Selection Sunday, and Iowa State should be rewarded accordingly.
David Cobb: UConn is 21-3 in Quadrants 1-2 after beating Marquette to win the Big East Tournament. Purdue is 20-4 against Quadrants 1-2 after losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. Houston is 19-4 against Quadrants 1-2 after getting throttled by Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament title game. With more victories and fewer losses in the first two quadrants than Purdue or Houston -- and as the only one of the group to win its conference tournament -- the Huskies should be the No. 1 overall seed. As for UNC at No. 4, the Tar Heels closed much stronger than Arizona or Tennessee, both of whom struggled mightily over the eight days leading into Selection Sunday.
Chip Patterson: If we are to use the committee's approach -- treating every game equally and not leaning into recency bias -- the top three that we have been eyeing for weeks should remain only slightly changed in order with North Carolina will emerge from the group of teams competing for the fourth No. 1 seed. UConn gets the nod with a third win against Marquette on its profile and then Purdue and Houston remain in their previously determined order after both teams lost in their respective conference tournaments. And while North Carolina lost to an NC State team that was outside the field heading into the tournament, its wins against Florida State and Pittsburgh give it two more victories than Tennessee had in its conference tournament and one more than Arizona logged during a shorter-than-expected stay in Las Vegas.
Cameron Salerno: UConn should be the No. 1 overall seed over Purdue and Houston based on its resume, which was solidified by winning the Big East Tournament championship in commanding fashion. If Houston or Purdue had won their respective conference tourneys, there would be a strong argument for either being the top overall seed. North Carolina still gets the nod for the final No. 1 despite losing in the ACC Tournament final to NC State. The Tar Heels have a better overall resume than Arizona, Tennessee or Iowa State.
