Four days after upsetting Germany, the Japanese can take another step toward advancing to the knockout stage of the 2022 World Cup when they square off against Costa Rica in a Group E match on Sunday at Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium in Ar-Rayyan, Qatar. On Wednesday Japan, ranked No. 24 in the world, pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the tournament with a 2-1 victory over four-time World Cup champion Germany. The Japanese can qualify for the Round of 16 with a win over Costa Rica and a Spain win or draw against Germany. Meanwhile Costa Rica is coming off a 7-0 blowout loss to Spain. 

Kickoff is 5 a.m. ET. The Japanese are the -225 favorites (risk $225 to win $100) in the latest Japan vs. Costa Rica odds from Caesars Sportsbook, with the Costa Ricans the +750 underdogs. A draw is priced at +300. Before locking in any Costa Rica vs. Japan picks, you need to see the World Cup predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven soccer simulation model.

The SportsLine soccer simulation model evaluates a team's offensive and defensive capabilities based on the game situation. Then, it assigns a grade using an expected payout-to-probability ratio. The model was accurate on 56% of all picks during the Champions League group stage and returned more than $1,000 to $100 bettors on its A+ picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now the model has dialed in on Japan vs. Costa Rica and just revealed its 2022 World Cup picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of the model's soccer picks. Now, here are the World Cup 2022 odds and trends for Costa Rica vs. Japan:  

  • Japan vs. Costa Rica spread: Japan -1.5 (+127)
  • Japan vs. Costa Rica over/under: 2.5 goals 
  • Japan vs. Costa Rica money line: Japan -225; Costa Rica +750; Draw +300
  • JPN: Takumi Minamino has 17 goals in 45 games with Japan 
  • CRC: Bryan Ruiz is fourth in the nation's all-time scoring charts with 29 goals 
  • Japan vs. Costa Rica picks: See picks here

Why you should back Japan

The Japanese arguably will have the best player on the pitch in Takumi Minamino. Before leaving Liverpool for Monaco in June, the 27-year-old forward helped the Reds win their first league title in 30 years and come close to winning all four major trophies. During qualifying he scored 10 times, equaling Yuya Osaka's all-time record. In 45 career appearances with Japan he has 17 goals.

In addition, the Japanese face a Costa Rica side that put in arguably the worst opening match performance of any team at the World Cup. In the 7-0 blowout loss to Spain, the Costa Ricans allowed the Spaniards to have 72% of possession and couldn't even manage one shot on goal.

Why you should back Costa Rica

Keylor Navas remains one of the best goalkeepers in the game. The 35-year-old Navas played a key role as Real Madrid won three Champions League titles and four FIFA Club World Cups. In 2019 Navas moved to Paris Saint-Germain, where he has made 106 appearances in three seasons. He was named Concacaf's Men's Goalkeeper of the Year for three consecutive years (2016-18).

In addition, the Costa Ricans have an accomplished midfielder in Bryan Ruiz. The 37-year-old Ruiz is the team's most-capped player and is fourth in the nation's all-time scoring charts with 29 goals.

How to make Japan vs. Costa Rica picks

The model has taken an in-depth look at the Costa Rica vs. Japan match from every angle and is leaning Under on the goal total. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see the model's World Cup picks at SportsLine.

Where does all the betting value lie for the Japan vs. Costa Rica matchup on Sunday? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side to back in the Costa Rica vs. Japan match on Sunday, all from the model that hit 56% of its Champions League picks, and find out.