Even as their unbeaten run extended beyond its 20th game, it seemed a matter of when not if Bayer Leverkusen would be crushed by the Bundesliga's inevitable gravitational force. Xabi Alonso's side might be able to hold out for a while, probably even manufacture a title race as engrossing as last season's, but surely it was a matter of time before this club, one defined for so many by its past near misses, was drawn in by the galactic power of Bayern Munich.
Perhaps not. Perhaps this was the weekend that everything changed. Leverkusen came through one of the Bundesliga's most gruelling examinations in thrilling late fashion, twice coming from behind before Piero Hincapie's added-time header earned them a 3-2 win at RB Leipzig on Saturday. That in itself felt like a pivotal result for a team that that has already negotiated tricky trips to Munich and Stuttgart, but its importance only swelled the following day as Bayern lost in that fashion they seem to specialize in, outshooting Werder Bremen 22 to eight, yet still emerging 1-0 losers.
Thomas Tuchel raged after the game with the air of a man who knows his side are letting their position as favorites slip away. They still just about have it though, depending on who you ask. Opta's season simulations give Leverkusen, now seven points clear having played a game more, a 57.8% chance of winning the title, but bookmakers slightly favor Munich. It is easy to see why. In every metric other than the one that counts come the end of the season, the reigning champions look like a side who should make it 12 straight titles.
Through just 17 league matches Bayern have 52 goals to their name, the best per game average by a country mile across Europe's top four leagues. That is no wonder when their xG per game is also the continent's leading and on that measure the difference is gaudy in the extreme. Barcelona, Europe's second best xG creators, average 2.3 a game. Harry Kane and company are at 2.9, obliterating even the mark of Julian Nagelsmann's Bayern in 2021-22, scorers of 97 goals in 34 Bundesliga games. Liverpool might have played four more league games, but even they aren't putting up the raw xG numbers of FC Hollywood. This is box office attack, just what you would have expected to happen when you add a superstar forward in Kane who is simultaneously one of the sport's best creative forwards and pure finishers.
It is no wonder that in terms of xG difference, there is Bayern and then the rest of the Bundesliga. Tuchel's men sit at 36.9 through 17 games. Leverkusen aren't even in second place in that particular metric. At 20.4 they just trail this season's surprise package VfB Stuttgart, a squad whose rise is as stunning (and perhaps unsustainable?) as the heretofore unseen scoring form of their star striker Serhou Guirassy.
Then again, Alonso would be the first to remind you that Bayern's metrics don't particularly matter to Leverkusen. "The challenge now is not up against Bayern," he told CBS Sports in November, "it's against what we can do, and how far we can reach and how far we deserve to be in that [first] position.
"It's still too early. The challenge is, can we prove to be that consistent?" He is right. Bayern might be an average of two xG better than their opponent each time they play, but if Leverkusen are one xG better every time they take to the field, then there is no reason why that cannot be a title-winning pace. After all, over the past three seasons of football in Europe's top four leagues they are one of only 11 teams whose non-penalty xG difference per game is greater than one. Napoli and Real Madrid have won league titles with less.
Leverkusen might not have the superstars of their title rivals, but there is high grade talent across this side. Alonso's first priority on his appointment in October 2022 was tightening up the defense; that has now conceded fewer goals than any in the Bundesliga (though Tuchel's penchant for cautious possession means Bayern are some way ahead in xG allowed).
Leverkusen's attack might be significantly outperforming its xG thanks to a wild scoring streak from Alex Grimaldo (2.4 xG, seven goals), but they are still averaging two xG per game. If they keep manufacturing nearly five shots per 90 minutes for Victor Boniface then they are going to get goals. Whether that is enough could be decided in a few weeks' time.
To an extent, this season's Bundesliga race feels a little like last season's Premier League, and not just because Granit Xhaka seems to be playing a bigger role in the emergence of a title contender than anyone might have suspected. Arsenal's momentum might ultimately have spluttered out with draws against opponents they should have beaten, but the reality is they could have afforded a late season wobble if only they hadn't give up six points to the unremitting behemoth that was Manchester City. If Die Werkself can simply hold back Bayern's attacking tide as they did in September, let alone actually beat the champions at the Bay Arena, then they might have enough head room to win their first league title.
