Saints at Buccaneers -- Week 7

Where: Raymond James Stadium (grass, outdoors)

When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Spread: Saints by 2.5

Forecast: sunny, zero chance of rain, high of 82 degrees

2012 Records—Saints 1-4 (0-1 NFC South), Buccaneers 2-3 (1-0 NFC South)

Past Results: Two most recent meetings -- Nov. 6, 2011: Saints 27-16 in New Orleans; Oct. 16, 2001: Bucs 26-20 in Tampa. Series record: The Saints lead 23-17 and are 13-10 in Tampa.

What Matters: Stopping the run and staying hot in the passing game. Tampa Bay is effective when it controls the ball on the ground, as it did in its wins against Carolina (130 rushing yards) and Kansas City (145 rushing yards). If the Saints can contain rookie Doug Martin (84 carries, 323 yards) and bruising backup LeGarrette Blount (20 carries, 102 yards), the Bucs will be hard-pressed to win with their pedestrian passing attack. Josh Freeman is completing 55.2 percent of his throws, the lowest percentage for any NFC starter. New Orleans is not as bad against the run as its No. 31 ranking in the NFL suggests -- those numbers were distorted by Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles’ monster 233-yard day. Tampa Bay limits opponents to an NFL-low 3.1 yards per carry, so the Saints will have to beat the Bucs in the air. Tight end Jimmy Graham (sprained ankle) is gimpy, but he was a non-factor against San Diego two weeks ago and Drew Brees still threw for 370 yards and four scores.

Who Matters: The Saints wide receivers and interim coach Aaron Kromer. WR Marques Colston is coming off a huge game against San Diego (9 catches, 131 yards, 3 TDs) and needs to be nearly as good on Sunday. The return of Lance Moore from a hamstring injury should help, although fill-in Greg Camarillo was effective against the Chargers in his absence. New Orleans has plenty of weaknesses, but it can overwhelm Tampa Bay if Brees and his wide receivers are clicking. The Bucs can’t match the Saints in a shootout. … Kromer is in his last game as interim coach before ceding those duties to Joe Vitt, who comes off his six-game, bounty-related suspension next week. If the Saints lose, Kromer’s short tenure will have been an epic fail, partly because of circumstances out of his control. If they beat the Bucs, he will finish on a two-game win streak and hand over the reins to Vitt with some momentum. 

Key Matchups: Marques Colston vs. whomever; Saints CBs vs. Bucs WRs. Bucs standout CB Aqib Talib would have covered Colston, but he was suspended for four games last week for using Adderall. Now the task will fall to either Eric Wright or the seldom-used E.J. Biggers, with help from Ronde Barber, a former All-Pro at CB who has been converted to safety. Advantage, Colston. The Saints secondary has struggled, but CB Jabari Greer should be healthier after resting a lingering groin injury during the bye week. He and Patrick Robinson need to prevent receivers Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson from beating them deep. What the Bucs lack in consistency they make up for with big plays. Williams averages 22.1 yards per catch, and Jackson averages 18.5.

Injuries of Note: The Saints will be without LB David Hawthorne (hamstring) for the third consecutive week. Graham is questionable with his bum ankle. Everyone else should be able to play.

Inside Stuff: Linebacker Jonathan Vilma practiced the last three days, getting some walkthrough reps with the first-team defense, and may be activated from the PUP list Saturday. It’s not as big a long shot as it seemed at the beginning of the week. … Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael called plays for the first time after coach Sean Payton fractured a tibia and tore an MCL in the second quarter of last year’s meeting in Tampa. Carmichael continued to call the plays for the last 12 games of the season, and with Payton suspended for all of 2012, the first five games of this year.

Connections: Bucs offensive guard Carl Nicks played for the Saints from 2008-11 and was a first-team All-Pro last year before signing with Tampa Bay and getting the richest contract ever for an NFL guard. … Kromer was an offensive assistant with the Bucs from 2005-07 before going to New Orleans as offensive line coach.

Stats you should know: The Saints are first in the NFC in third-down conversions at 45.7 percent. The Bucs are third-to-last in the entire NFL in third-down conversions at 28.3 percent. … None of the Saints’ first five opponents have a winning record. Washington, Carolina, Kansas City, Green Bay and San Diego are a combined 11-18 -- 7-17 if you take out their results against New Orleans.

Bulletin board quote: “You can say I left or say they sent me packing.” -- Bucs All-Pro guard Carl Nicks on his move to Tampa Bay from New Orleans as a free agent in the offseason.

Looking ahead: The Saints travel to Denver for a Sunday night game with the Broncos and resurgent QB Peyton Manning. A loss would leave the Saints' playoff hopes pretty much dead at 1-5 with a tough schedule ahead (Atlanta twice, San Francisco, New York Giants).

Prediction: Saints 27, Bucs 20

Follow Saints reporter Guerry Smith on twitter @CBSSaints.