Davis won't likely be catching a new deal this offseason. (US Presswire)

We've already seen seven of the 21 players who received the franchise tag this offseason get long-term deals. And there could be more on the way before the July 16 deadline to extend those players. Just don't count on Redskins tight end Fred Davis getting a one.

According to CSNWashington.com's Rich Tandlich, a new deal for Davis before this season is "extremely unlikely." Tandlich believes that Davis has to "demonstrate that he can stay out of trouble before the Redskins are going to write him a big signing bonus check."

However, Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com reports that the Redskins "have reached out to Davis about doing a long-term deal." Florio adds that "nothing is imminent" however.

This jives with everything CBSSports.com's Jason LaCanfora wrote recently about Davis, pointing out that the odds of him getting a new deal were "weak," and that the Redskins would be "crazy" to hand Davis a pile of guaranteed money given his history.

That history involves a four-game suspension last season for failing a drug test. As a result, Davis is in line for a full-season suspension if he fails another test. The tight end said recently that his drug issues are "not going to come up again," and that's good to hear, but the Redskins can't simply take him at his word and hand over a pile of money right now. (Even if that would be the most Redskins thing ever.)

Davis is a serious breakout candidate in 2012, though: he finished last year on pace for 78 catches and 1,021 yards. He's got a new/hopefully-not-terrible quarterback in Robert Griffin III and could become a very nice safety blanket and/or downfield roll-out target for RG3 in Mike Shanahan's offense.

So perhaps getting Davis a new deal would be the smart move, provided that Davis was willing to take a serious discount based on the risk he presents off the field. The Redskins could lock down an emerging tight end at little risk (presumably with less guaranteed money on the table) and just hope that Davis stays out of trouble. Or, perhaps, they could insert language that relates to voiding parts of his deal for off-the-field issues.

That being said, the odds of Davis having to play out 2012 under the franchise tag and prove himself on and off the field before getting paid is the most logical conclusion to this situation.

On the bright side, Davis always has a career as a lawyer for a fallback.

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