Falcons vs. Panthers predictions: Odds, total, player props, pick, how to watch 'Thursday Night Football'

Get ready for the Week 10 opener between the Falcons and Panthers

Week 10 in the NFL kicks off in Charlotte as the Falcons and Panthers will duke it out Thursday night. It was just a couple of weeks ago that these NFC South rivals went toe-to-toe and needed overtime to determine the winner, with Atlanta narrowly escaping with the victory. More recently, each of these clubs came out on the losing end in Week 9, with the Falcons dropping a home matchup to the Chargers and the Panthers getting blown out by Cincinnati. 

Even with these teams coming into Thursday with a combined record of 6-12, it's not out of the realm of possibility that one of these teams makes a run at an NFC South title, especially when considering that the entire division is under .500 coming into Week 10. 

Here, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook. 

How to watch

Date: Thursday, Nov. 10 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Falcons -2.5, O/U 42.5

Line movement

The lookahead line had Atlanta as a 1.5-point favorite, and that held until the early portion of the 1 p.m. ET slate in Week 9. For a brief moment, Carolina flipped to a 3.5-point favorite and then settled as a 3-point favorite until things switched back to Falcons -1.5 by 5 p.m. ET Sunday. After that interesting swing, Atlanta climbed to a 3-point favorite by Monday afternoon but has since come down to 2.5. 

The pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta needed a little luck and some late-game heroics from Younghoe Koo in overtime to pull out the win a few weeks ago, but it is the better team. The Falcons' strength offensively also plays into this matchup well. They own a top-five rushing offense in yards per game and rushing touchdowns, while Carolina has been one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking in the bottom five of the NFL in both of those same categories. The Panthers defense is also coming off a game where it was on the field for nearly 40 minutes and 72 plays against Cincinnati just a few days ago. Atlanta is also 3-1 ATS on the road this season. 

Key trend: Panthers are 5-18 in their last 23 games overall. 

Over/Under total

The total opened at 41 and jumped to 45 midway through the 1 p.m. ET slate last Sunday. It settled back down a bit but did hang around 44 and 44.5 on Tuesday before falling to 42.5 on the eve of this head-to-head. 

The pick: Over 42.5. Slight lean on the Over here. Carolina has scored 20-plus points in each of their past three games and, as we noted above, this defense could be extremely tired after being on the field for nearly 75% of the game last Sunday. On the other side, the Over is 6-3 on the season for Atlanta. Given that both of these defenses rank in the bottom third in the NFL in DVOA, there should be opportunities for both sides to put up points. 

Key trend: Over is 4-1 in Atlanta's past five games vs. the NFC South.

Marcus Mariota props

• Passing touchdowns: 0.5 (Over -234, Under +165)
• Passing yards: 157.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
• Rushing yards: 30.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
• Longest pass completion: 31.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
• Completions: 13.5 (Over -133, Under -103)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +133, Under -184)

There's no value in Mariota's passing touchdown prop. Really, the only confident bet to make with his props is the Over on his 30.5 rushing yards at -119. He's gone over this number in four of his past five games, including that Week 8 matchup with Carolina. Over that stretch, he's averaging six attempts per game. Mariota has gone under this passing yards total in five of his past six games and has only gone over this completions prop in four games this year. 

P.J. Walker props

• Passing touchdowns: 0.5 (Over -234, Under +165)
• Passing yards: 173.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
• Rushing yards: 6.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
• Passing attempts: 25.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
• Longest pass completion: 31.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -184, Under +133)

Similar to Mariota, Walker's touchdown prop is a stay away. He's thrown three interceptions over his past two games, so that could be a way to lean here if you're looking to bet an Over. That said, Unders may be the way to attack Walker's prop market this week, as he could very well be pulled for Baker Mayfield if things go awry early. 

Player props to consider

Kyle Pitts total receptions: Over 3.5 (-106). It's been a forgettable first half of the year for the talented tight end. However, things could be looking up. Mariota has openly talked about needing to do a better job of involving him in the passing game, and Pitts has seen 16 targets over the past two games. If the Falcons begin force-feeding him the ball to try and get him going, that should get us over here. 

Cordarrelle Patterson anytime touchdowns (+106). When Patterson is healthy, he has a nose for the end zone. In the five games he's played this season, Patterson has hit paydirt in four of them, including a two-touchdown performance last week against the Chargers. Carolina's defense is tied for 28th in the NFL for most rushing touchdowns allowed entering Week 10.