26 Teams down, four to go. After more than a month of In-Season Tournament basketball now in the books, we have trimmed our field down to the final four and flown to Las Vegas for the festivities. On Saturday, we'll name a champion, and on Thursday, we'll figure out which two teams will play for the $500,000 prize.
No sense in waiting any longer. With no In-Season Tournament precedent to consider, let's just dive into the two games on Thursday's slate and figure out who will be playing on Saturday for the first-ever NBA Cup.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
You should expect plenty of offense in this game. At FanDuel, the point total opened up at 249.5 points. In 11 minutes, it had already ballooned to 254.5. This is going to be an offense-first game, but that favors the Bucks slightly.
As we saw in Tuesday's semifinal, the Bucks are lethal from deep. They made 26 3-pointers against the Knicks, but the Pacers completely sell out to stop 3-pointers. They allow only 24.8 3-pointers per 100 possessions. Every other team is above 30. Of course, 3-pointers aren't Milwaukee's only weapon. If the Pacers are going to close out on every shooter and leave the rim unattended, Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to have a field day. The last time he played Indiana, he scored 54 points.
If this game is close, it's also worth remembering how much more big-game experience the Bucks have. Tyrese Haliburton didn't play his first career TNT game until Monday. Antetokounmpo has a championship, and Damian Lillard is running away with the Clutch Player of the Year award. Lillard leads the NBA with 67 clutch points this season and ranks second with 10 clutch assists. The Pacers have been the NBA's best clutch offense (and overall offense) this season, but in a high-stakes game, I'm favoring the team that's been there before. The Pick: Bucks -4.5
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
First things first: despite the theoretically neutral venue for this game, the Lakers have a home-court advantage. You'd only need to watch a Lakers Summer League game to see why. With no NBA team of its own, Vegas basketball fans have always flocked to the Lakers. They're going to have the crowd behind them here.
As for the matchup itself, we're dealing with small samples on both sides. The Pelicans are just getting key players Trey Murphy III and CJ McCollum back. The Lakers just played a stretch basically without any of their wings, but now, the only player they expect to be without against New Orleans is Gabe Vincent. Stylistically, these are very similar teams. The Lakers rank 30th in 3-point attempts. The Pelicans rank 27th. Both rank in the top 10 in the NBA in paint points.
The key matchup here is LeBron James vs. Herb Jones. The Lakers still rely on James for the bulk of their shot creation, and Jones is arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA, but James has largely gotten the better of him head-to-head. In five total matchups, James has averaged over 31 points on over 52% shooting from the floor. As valuable as Jones is defensively, he's at his best overwhelming smaller guards. If the Pelicans can't contain James, they can't win this game. The Pick: Lakers -1.5
