For the second straight week, Brad Keselowski found himself one spot away from the winner's circle. Keselowski has only led two laps in back-to-back runner-ups over the last two weeks, but his finishes near the top of the leaderboard have earned him 78 points in the NASCAR Cup Series standings over that span. The 40-year-old moved up to 14th in the NASCAR Cup Series standings entering the 2024 Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET. Keselowski is seeking his first NASCAR Cup Series victory since 2021, but has four runner-ups since the beginning of the 2023 season. He is 20-1 in the 2024 NASCAR at Dover odds, so should you consider playing Keselowski to break through for a victory in 2024 Wurth 400 bets?
Kyle Larson is the 9-2 favorite followed by Martin Truex Jr. (6-1) in the latest 2024 Wurth 400 odds. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Dover predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Wurth 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 Wurth 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Dover leaderboard.
Top 2024 Wurth 400 predictions
For the 2024 Wurth 400, the model is high on Chase Elliott, even though he's a 12-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Dover odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Elliott recently won the EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway on April 14. It was his third straight top-five finish before finishing 15th at last weekend's GEICO 500. The 28-year-old is third in the NASCAR Cup Series standings. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion finished fourth in the final standings in 2021 and 2022 before a fractured left tibia derailed his 2023 season.
Elliott won NASCAR at Dover in 2022 while leading 73 laps after finishing third there the year before. He finished 11th at Dover in just his third race back from injury last season and Elliott has two victories over 13 career races at the speedway. He has six top-three finishes and nine top-five finishes over his 13 races in Dover as his success at the speedway makes him a strong option for 2024 Wurth 400 bets in the model's latest projections.
Another massive shocker: Martin Truex, Jr., who is second in the standings and listed as one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Dover NASCAR starting lineup. He won last year's race and he's been to victory lane at "The Monster Mile" four times now in his career.
However, despite racing effectively for points all season, he hasn't managed a victory yet and he's finished outside the top 10 in each of his last three races. He also failed to crack the top 10 in 2021 and 2022 at Dover Motor Speedway and the model sees him struggling to live up to his billing as second favorite. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Dover picks
The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Dover odds longer than 10-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Wurth 400 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Dover odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Dover leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.
2024 Wurth 400 odds, drivers, lineup
See full NASCAR at Dover picks at SportsLine
Kyle Larson 9-2
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
William Byron 15-2
Denny Hamlin 15-2
Ross Chastain 15-2
Ty Gibbs 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Christopher Bell 12-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Alex Bowman 16-1
Kyle Busch 18-1
Brad Keselowski 20-1
Chris Buescher 20-1
Tyler Reddick 22-1
Joey Logano 25-1
Bubba Wallace 45-1
Josh Berry 45-1
Chase Briscoe 60-1
Noah Gragson 90-1
Ryan Preece 100-1
Corey Heim 100-1
Carson Hocevar 100-1
Daniel Suarez 100-1
John Hunter Nemechek 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 125-1
Austin Dillon 125-1
Jimmie Johnson 125-1
Michael McDowell 125-1
Justin Haley 250-1
Austin Cindric 250-1
AJ Allmendinger 250-1
Corey Lajoie 250-1
Todd Gilliland 400-1
Zane Smith 400-1
Harrison Burton 750-1
Daniel Hemric 1000-1
Kaz Grala 2500-1
