Chase Elliott will return from a one-race suspension on the hunt for his first win of the year at the 2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350. The race takes place on the road track at Sonoma on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET, and Elliott has been the most dominant road course driver on the NASCAR Cup Series for the last three years. Elliott has four wins in 15 road races during that span and is 11-2 to win on Sunday in the latest 2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Elliott has seven total road course victories in his Cup Series career, but has yet to pick one up at Sonoma.
If he is going to change that, he must defeat other 2023 NASCAR at Sonoma contenders like Kyle Busch (8-1), Kyle Larson (5-1) and Tyler Reddick (5-1). Before scouring the 2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Sonoma predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 NASCAR at Sonoma picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). In Austin, it listed Tyler Reddick as one of its best values and he went on to win for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 12 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350 leaderboard.
Top 2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Christopher Bell, even though he's a 20-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Sonoma odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Bell has finished outside of the top 20 in two of his last four races, ballooning his odds. Still, he is coming off of his best race during that span, when he finished 11th in last weekend's Enjoy Illinois 300.
Prior to those last four starts, Bell notched top-10 finishes at Talladega and Dover, but he should be ready to challenge for his first win since the Food City Dirt Race in April. Bell's last race on a road course ended in an accident at the Circuit of the Americas, but in two such races before that at the Charlotte Roval and Watkins Glen, he took a win and an eighth-place finish, respectively. Since last year, Bell has the eighth-best positions finished above expected rating (29.9) on road courses and is a legitimate threat to pick up his second win of the season on Sunday. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, one of the Vegas co-favorites at 5-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350 starting lineup, according to the model. The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion has two wins this season, but he's been inconsistent and sits ninth in the NASCAR standings.
Larson is a four-time Cup winner on road courses, but his last race at Sonoma was a disappointment. After starting on the pole and leading 26 laps, Larson wound up finishing 15th. He was outside the top 10 without leading a lap in the only other road race so far this season in Austin. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Sonoma picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Sonoma odds longer than 14-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Toyota/Save Mart 350 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Sonoma odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 NASCAR Sonoma leaderboard, all from the model that already nailed six winners in 2023.
2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds, drivers, lineup
See full 2023 NASCAR at Sonoma picks at SportsLine
Tyler Reddick 5-1
Kyle Larson 5-1
Chase Elliott 11-2
Kyle Busch 8-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
William Byron 10-1
A.J. Allmendinger 14-1
Daniel Suarez 14-1
Austin Cindric 16-1
Chris Buescher 20-1
Kevin Harvick 25-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Christopher Bell 25-1
Martin Truex Jr. 30-1
Ryan Blaney 30-1
Michael McDowell 35-1
Joey Logano 35-1
Brad Keselowski 40-1
Chase Briscoe 40-1
Denny Hamlin 40-1
Ty Gibbs 45-1
Justin Haley 100-1
Erik Jones 100-1
Bubba Wallace 100-1
Austin Dillon 250-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Aric Almirola 500-1
Zane Smith 500-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 500-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Noah Gragson 500-1
Andy Lally 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 1500-1
Todd Gilliland 2000-1
Ty Dillon 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
